Technical Committee Meeting TCM National Hydrology Project BBMB

Technical Committee Meeting (TCM) National Hydrology Project BBMB

th Reservoirs Level on 16 May…. Reservoirs 16 th May 2019 16 th May 2018 16 th May 2017 Level variation (increment) in 2019 w. r. t 2018 Level variation (increment) in 2019 w. r. t 2017 Bhakra Level (Feet) 1619. 46 1509. 77 1534. 8 109. 69 84. 66 Pong Level (Feet) 1338. 87 1289. 93 1296. 09 48. 94 42. 78 Bhakra Existing Live Capacity = 55. 78% Pong Existing Live Capacity = 43. 37% http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Bhakra. Current. Vs. Historical

Bhakra inflow compared with Exceedance Probability From 21 st September to 16 th May 2019, inflow is 14. 37% exceedance probability From 16 th April to 16 th May 2019, inflow is 28. 39% exceedance probability http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Bhakra. Analysis. Chart

th Bhakra Level on 16 May…. Level of 16 th May 2019 - 1619. 46 Level of 16 th May 2015 – 1596. 03 Level of 16 th May 2014 – 1579. 20 Level of 16 th May 2011 - 1575. 43 Level of 26 th April 2019 - 1624. 11 Level of 26 th April 2011 - 1586. 94 http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Bhakra. Current. Vs. Historical

Bhakra Level graph in 2015, 2014, 2011 and 2019… Snowmelt in 2015 – 5434 MCM Snowmelt in 2014 – 4836 MCM Snowmelt in 2011 – 5383 MCM Expected Snowmelt in 2019 – (5700 -6100) MCM http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Bhakra. Current. Vs. Historical

Bhakra Outflow graph in 2015, 2014, 2011 and 2019 … Bhakra Outflow in May 2011 – 29500 Cusec Bhakra Outflow in June 2011 – 28800 Cusec Bhakra Outflow in July 2011 – 28100 Cusec *Till 25 th April 2019 Bhakra Outflow in August 2011 – 28500 Cusec Bhakra Outflow in September 2011 – 31300 Cusec http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Bhakra. Current. Vs. Historical

Inflow & Outflow Bhakra October onward … Reservoirs October November December January February March April May Average Bhakra Inflow (Cusec) Current 14500 8985 6723 6000 9050 9078 16899 18682* 11240 Bhakra Inflow (Cusec) last Year 12020 7575 6400 5540 5675 5172 7375 12247 7750 Bhakra Outflow Current (Cusec) 12000 10200 13000 15500 13515 16670 12963 23052* 14613 Bhakra Last Year Outflow (Cusec) 11940 12830 16500 17500 18000 18500 11000 21700 15996 Bhakra 10 Years 16700 Average Outflow (Cusec) 14150 17000 16000 17000 12000 21800 16456 *Till 16 th May 2019

Bhakra Inflow in Snowmelt Period…. Snowmelt Period Inflow in Bhakra Long Term Last Year Model 2019 2015 2014 2011 Dry Year Dependable Year Mean Year Average 25600 inflow 27500 in Cusec 14860 24400 20780 24180 16670 21120 25750 April – June (MCM) 3308 5434 4626 5383 3711 4701 5734 57006100

Bhakra Level Scenario – Modelled Min Snowmelt till 30 th June & various inflows in Monsoon & 35 K Cusec Outflow for 21 st May to 20 th July Inflow Scenario/Date Model Inflow Dry Year Inflow Mean Dependable Year Inflow Outflow Scenario Inflow Model Inflow. Scenario/Date Level Dry Year Inflow- Dependable Year Inflow. Level 20 -May 18592 26000 20 -May 1617 31 -May 24513 35000 31 -May 1609 10 -Jun 37355 35000 10 -Jun 1610 20 -Jun 45580 35000 20 -Jun 1618 30 -Jun 46020 35000 30 -Jun 1626 Mean Year Inflow. Level 10 -Jul 45692 37068 46200 51966 35000 10 -Jul 1632 1627 1633 1636 20 -Jul 43934 41865 49241 56520 35000 20 -Jul 1638 1631 1649 31 -Jul 54000 43755 53568 60090 27768 31 -Jul 1656 1642 1657 1669 10 -Aug 56310 44054 54127 61819 26709 10 -Aug 1672 1652 1673 1687 20 -Aug 40578 42522 54342 61097 28326 20 -Aug 1679 1660 1686 31 -Aug 32238 37814 43881 50059 28230 31 -Aug 1681 1666 10 -Sep 20292 30961 36034 40065 24136 10 -Sep 1679 1669 20 -Sep 14485 22541 28363 32011 23970 20 -Sep 1674 1668 http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Bhakra. Level. Calculator

Bhakra Level Scenario – Modelled Min Snowmelt till 30 th June & various inflows in Monsoon & 35 K Cusec Outflow for 21 st May to 20 th July 1720 1700 1680 1660 1640 1620 1600 1580 Min Snow Plus Model Inflow Min Snow Plus Dry Monsoon Min Snow Plus Dependable Monsoon ep -S 22 -S ep 12 p Se 2 - g -A u 23 -A ug 13 g Au 3 - l -Ju 24 l -Ju 14 Ju l 4 - n -Ju 24 n -Ju 14 Ju n 4 - ay -M 25 15 -M ay 1560 Min Snow Plus Mean Monsoon http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Bhakra. Level. Calculator

Bhakra Level Scenario – Modelled Snowmelt till 30 th June & various inflows in Monsoon & 35 K Cusec Outflow for 21 st May to 31 st July Inflow Scenario/Date Model Inflow Dry Year Inflow Mean Dependable Year Inflow Model Inflow. Scenario/Date Level Outflow Dry Year Inflow- Dependable Year Inflow. Level 20 -May 20657 26000 20 -May 1618 31 -May 27237 35000 31 -May 1612 10 -Jun 41505 35000 10 -Jun 1616 20 -Jun 50644 35000 20 -Jun 1627 30 -Jun 51133 35000 30 -Jun 1637 Mean Year Inflow. Level 10 -Jul 45692 37068 46200 51966 35000 10 -Jul 1644 1638 1644 1648 20 -Jul 43934 41865 49241 56520 35000 20 -Jul 1649 1643 1652 1660 31 -Jul 54000 43755 53568 60090 35000 31 -Jul 1660 1648 1663 1675 10 -Aug 56310 44054 54127 61819 26709 10 -Aug 1676 1658 1678 1693 20 -Aug 40578 42522 54342 61097 28326 20 -Aug 1682 1666 1691 31 -Aug 32238 37814 43881 50059 28230 31 -Aug 1684 1671 10 -Sep 20292 30961 36034 40065 24136 10 -Sep 1682 1675 20 -Sep 14485 22541 28363 32011 23970 20 -Sep 1678 1674 Outflow in rest of April considered 15 K Cusec http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Bhakra. Level. Calculator

Bhakra Level Scenario – Modelled Snowmelt till 30 th June & various inflows in Monsoon & 35 K Cusec Outflow for 21 st May to 31 st July 1720 1700 1680 1660 1640 1620 1600 1580 Snow Plus Model Inflow Snow Plus Dry Monsoon Snow Plus Dependable Monsoon -S ep 27 -S ep 12 -A ug 28 -A ug 13 l -Ju 29 l -Ju 14 n 29 -Ju n -Ju 14 ay -M 30 15 -M ay 1560 Snow Plus Mean Monsoon http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Bhakra. Level. Calculator

Bhakra Level Scenario – 35 K Cusec outflow from 20 May to 20 July/10 years average outflow afterward Inflow Scenario/Date Model Inflow Dry Year Inflow Mean Dependable Year Inflow Average 10 Year outflow Inflow Model Inflow. Scenario/Date Level Dry Year Inflow- Dependable Year Inflow. Level Mean Year Inflow. Level 20 -May 21549 14320 18101 24041 26000 20 -May 1617 1615 1617 1619 31 -May 27237 17673 23038 27924 35000 31 -May 1609 1602 1607 1613 10 -Jun 38205 21263 27169 34102 35000 10 -Jun 1610 1591 1602 1613 20 -Jun 45644 27066 34102 40283 35000 20 -Jun 1618 1585 1601 1616 30 -Jun 46133 31850 39282 47116 35000 30 -Jun 1626 1582 1604 1625 10 -Jul 45692 37068 46200 51966 35000 10 -Jul 1632 1584 1612 1635 20 -Jul 43934 41865 49241 56520 35000 20 -Jul 1638 1590 1622 1649 31 -Jul 54000 43755 53568 60090 27800 31 -Jul 1656 1604 1640 1669 10 -Aug 56310 44054 54127 61819 26800 10 -Aug 1672 1616 1657 1687 20 -Aug 40578 42522 54342 61097 28400 20 -Aug 1679 1626 1671 31 -Aug 32238 37814 43881 50059 28300 31 -Aug 1681 1632 1680 10 -Sep 20292 30961 36034 40065 24200 10 -Sep 1679 1636 1686 20 -Sep 14485 22541 28363 32011 24000 20 -Sep 1674 1635 1688 http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Bhakra. Level. Calculator

Bhakra Level Scenario – 35 K Cusec outflow from 20 May to 20 July/10 years average outflow afterward 1720 1700 1680 1660 1640 1620 1600 1580 1560 1540 Model Inflow Dry Year Inflow Dependable Year Inflow -S ep 22 ep -S 12 p Se 2 - -A ug 23 13 -A u g g Au 3 - l -Ju 24 l -Ju 14 Ju l 4 - n -Ju 24 n -Ju 14 Ju n 4 - ay -M 25 15 -M ay 1520 Mean Year Inflow http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Bhakra. Level. Calculator

th Pong Level on 16 May…. Level on 16 th May 2019 - 1338. 87 Level on 16 th May 2015 - 1330. 02 Level on 16 th May 1991 – 1339. 07 http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Pong. Current. Vs. Historical

Pong inflow compared with Exceedance Probability From 1 st October to 25 th April 2019, inflow is 16. 47% exceedance probability From 16 th April to 16 th May 2019, inflow is 36. 80% exceedance probability http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Pong. Analysis. Chart

Inflow & Outflow Pong October onward … Reservoirs October November December January February March April May Average Pong Inflow 5655 (Cusec) Current 2855 2331 3230 7650 4401 4284 3520* 4240 Pong Inflow (Cusec) last Year 3420 1915 3050 2065 1910 1317 1657 1549 2110 Pong Outflow Current (Cusec) 13500 11450 13700 12685 8110 2630 7650* 10300 Pong Last Year Outflow (Cusec) 13000 11500 13800 12000 12600 12200 1390 4423 10115 Pong 10 Years Average Outflow (Cusec) 10500 11500 12800 9800 8200 2150 6350 8890 *Till 16 th May 2019 http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Bhakra

Pong Level Scenario – 10 K Cusec Outflow Inflow Scenario/Date Model Inflow Dry Year Inflow Mean Dependable Year Inflow Scenario/Da te Model Inflow-Level outflow Dry Year Inflow- Dependable Year Inflow. Level Mean Year Inflow. Level 20 -May 2264 838 2047 2834 10000 20 -May 1337 31 -May 3915 1148 1391 3270 10000 31 -May 1334 1332 1333 1334 10 -Jun 9861 1035 2571 4507 10000 10 -Jun 1334 1328 1329 1331 20 -Jun 8221 2533 5000 6926 10000 20 -Jun 1333 1324 1326 1330 30 -Jun 4760 2391 6133 10153 10000 30 -Jun 1331 1320 1324 1330 10 -Jul 30628 7611 12325 19057 10000 10 -Jul 1340 1318 1325 1335 20 -Jul 26597 11810 21875 29668 10000 20 -Jul 1348 1319 1332 1344 31 -Jul 44305 21700 31609 41097 10000 31 -Jul 1365 1327 1343 1359 10 -Aug 68726 22095 35723 47144 10000 10 -Aug 1387 1333 1354 1375 20 -Aug 46390 23915 38692 51839 10000 20 -Aug 1399 1340 1366 1390 31 -Aug 28212 18695 26843 37973 10000 31 -Aug 1344 1373 1400 10 -Sep 22000 10860 18115 27627 10000 10 -Sep 1345 1376 20 -Sep 10050 5804 10050 17802 10000 20 -Sep 1343 1376 http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Pong. Level. Calculator

Pong Level Scenario – 10 K Cusec Outflow 1415 1410 1405 1400 1395 1390 1385 1380 1375 1370 1365 1360 1355 1350 1345 1340 1335 1330 1325 1320 1315 ay May May -M 5 30 1 20 25 un 4 -J un 9 -J un -J 14 n -Ju 19 n -Ju 24 n -Ju 29 ul 4 -J Model Inflow ul 9 -J l -Ju 14 l -Ju 19 Dry Year Inflow l -Ju 24 29 l -Ju ug 3 -A ug 8 -A Dependable Year Inflow ug -A 13 ug -A 18 ug -A 23 ug -A 28 ep 2 -S ep 7 -S ep -S 12 ep -S 17 ep -S 22 ep -S 27 Mean Year Inflow http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Pong. Level. Calculator ct 2 -O

Snow Accumulation in Satluj and Beas Basin Satluj Catchment March 2014 SWE Volume (MCM) Snowmelt April- June Inflow (MCM) July Inflow (MCM) March 2015 March 2016 March 2017 March 2018 March 2019 Till 15 th May* 5765 7966 4199 5533 2444 11488 7900* 4836 5434 4626 5081 3307 6200 1924* 3758 4237 2988 3884 2900 Till 15 th May 2019 Beas Catchment SWE Volume (MCM) Snowmelt Pandoh April- June Inflow (MCM) March 2014 March 2015 March 2016 March 2017 March 2018 March 2019 1767 1841 1162 1367 789 2706 1983 2311 1845 1895 1272 2275 http: //210. 212. 64. 190/BBMB/Beas. Maw. Data. Snow. Accumulation 10 Days

Snowmelt Runoff in Satluj and Beas Basin Average Inflow_ Bhakra (Cusec) Average Inflow_ Pong (Cusec) Average Inflow_ Pandoh (Cusec) 4/10/2019 15058 4551 7251 4/20/2019 16145 3824 7575 4/30/2019 19495 3263 7174 5/10/2019 18120 2840 7109 5/20/2019 21549 2264 7842 5/31/2019 27237 3915 12469 6/10/2019 38205 9861 16859 6/20/2019 45644 8221 14725 6/30/2019 46133 4760 10821

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