New Directions in Seismic Hazard Assessment through Focused

New Directions in Seismic Hazard Assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the MARmara Super. SITE Work programme topics addressed: ENV. 2012. 6. 4 -2 Long-term monitoring experiment in geologically active regions of Europe prone to natural hazards: the Supersite concept 16 - FP 7 -ENV-2012 -twostage. Project Coordinator: Prof. Dr. Nurcan Meral Özel Project acronym: Mar. Site

B) The seismicity of the Marmara Region from combined catalogues of KOERI and TUBITAK (1964 -2011, M≥ 2. 5). A) Instrumental observation infrastructure of Marmara The occurrence years and possible locations of historical earthquakes.

The MARsite project proposes to identify the Marmara region as a ‘Supersite’ within European initiatives to aggregate on-shore, off-shore and space-based observations, comprehensive geophysical monitoring, improved hazard and risk assessments encompassed in an integrated set of activities to respond to all priorities identified in the ENV. 2012. 6. 4 -2 call.

OBJECTİVES MARsite aims to: 1) harmonize geological, geophysical, geodetic and geochemical observations to provide a better view of the post-seismic deformation of the 1999 Izmit earthquake (in addition to the post-seismic signature of previous earthquakes), 2) investigate loading of submarine and inland active fault segments and transient preearthquake signals, related to stress loading with different tectonic properties in and around Marmara Sea. 3) explore earthquake/landslide triggering mechanisms and tsunami hazard modelling. 4) obtain rapid source-mechanism solutions and slip models, 5) develop new algorithms for early warning and rapid-response studies, 6) establish a risk management cycle with the creation of a link between the scientific community and end users. 7) to develop novel geo-hazard monitoring instruments including high-resolution displacement meters, novel borehole instrumentation and sea-bottom gas emission and heat-flow measurement systems, in association with the relevant industrial sectors and SMEs.

Participant no. * 1 (Coordinator) Participant organisation name KOERI (Bogazici University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) Country Turkey 16 GFZ (Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches Geo. Forschungs. Zentrum) TUBITAK (The Scientific & Technological Research Council of Turkey) IFREMER (Research Institute for Exploration of the Sea ) INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia ) IU (Istanbul University) KOU (Kocaeli University) ITU (Istanbul Technical University) CNR (The National Research Council) BRGM (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) Eucentre (European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering) CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks) AMRA (Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk) EMSC (European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre) ESA (European Space Agency) 17 Univ. of Pavia Italy 18 IFSTTAR (French Institute of Science and Technology devoted to Transport, Planning and Networks) France 19 20 21 GURALP Systems Ltd UK DAIMAR s. r. l. Italy SARMAP s. a. Switzerland 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Germany Turkey France Italy Turkey Italy France Italy France Netherland

MARsite WPs JICA-JST Meeting, 26 June 2012 7

MARSite The monitoring of the 'Supersites' should be conducted through a fully integrated conceptual approach based on collaboration with existing monitoring networks and international initiatives, developing new instrumentation such as in-situ sensors, and aggregating space and ground-based observations (including from subsurface), and geophysical monitoring. The project(s) will develop and demonstrate the next generation of geo-hazards monitoring/observing systems, and contribute to establishing comprehensive natural hazards observatories through a cross-cutting approach. MARsite will use the power of -dense seismological, geochemical and GPS networks -experts on PSIn. SAR and SBAS analysis -combination of the remote-sensing and ground-based data -developing and demonstration of new systems -Integration of different data sources, uses of data etc. -early warning and rapid response system for Istanbul -Real-time data provision during crisis period (e. g. aftershocks)

MARSite The projects will establish a chain from observations to end users. The outcomes will be applied to the phases of the risk management cycle relevant for this region. . Collection of Multidisiplinary Data from avaliable networks. Developing of new systems. Contribution of SMEs Harmonzation&Reevaluation Geological Geophysical Models Hazard estimation Optimization of Risk Cycle under this project Risk Studies&Vulnerability Estimation EVENT Links to end users &Risk Mitigation of the avaliable data Collobrative efforts in the frame of the Marsite

Work Packages Coordinaton and link to other projects WP 1 Coordination and Project Management WP leader: N. M. Özel (KOERI) • 0 - 36 months Data from available networks, Satellite data/Harmonization and modeling for hazard studies WP 2 Land based Long-term multi-disciplinary continuous monitoring. WP • 0 - 36 months WP 3 Long-term Continuous Geodetic Monitoring of Crustal Deformation. 0 - 36 months To develop new technologies and methodologies WP 4 Establishment of Borehole Observation System And High Resolution Seismic Studies in the Marmara Sea. 0 - 36 months

Work Packages To estimate real time hazard WP 5 Real- and quasi-real-time Earthquake & Tsunami hazard monitoring) • 0– 36 months To study the triggering between natural hazards, experiences from 1999 eq. (Avcilar) WP 6 Earthquake-Induced Landslide Hazard in Marmara 0 - 36 months To create a link to end-users WP 7 Re-evaluation of the Seismo-tectonics of the Marmara Region. 0 - 36 months To understand the Marmara tectonics and upgrade the avaliable models WP 8 Monitoring fluid activity and seismicity at the seafloor using existing autonomous instrumentation. 0 - 36 months

Work Packages WP 9 Early Warning and Development of the Real-time shake and loss information 0– 36 months WP 10 Data Integration and Dissemination 0 - 36 months WP 11 Dissemination 0 - 36 months

the locations of borehole (red star) earthquake recording stations (triangles are permanent KOERI stations; rectangles are TUBITAK temporary stations and red circles are the surface array stations, which will be installed in the frame of this project)

Establishment of Borehole Observation System and High Resolution Seismic Studies in the Western part of the main Marmara Fault in the frame of a EU-FP 7 project titled as MARSITE

MARsite will adopt Advancing GEOSS Data Sharing Principles • • • MARsite will adopt Advancing GEOSS Data Sharing Principles and will incorporate related GEOSS strategic targets defined as “Provide a shared, easily accessible, timely, sustained stream of comprehensive data of documented quality, as well as metadata and information products, for informed decision making…. ” in GEOSS Strategic Targets - Document 12 (Rev, 1), page 8. The high level Data Sharing Principles represents on of the foundations for GEOSS, and their effective yet flexible implementation remains a major challenge. MARSite will be a good chance to experiment their application. The 10 -year implementation plan sets out the GEOSS Data Sharing Principles: There will be full and open exchange of data, metadata and products shared within GEOSS, recognizing relevant international instruments and national policies and legislation – MARSite partners will actively share their data among themselves, through suitable tools such as the shared repository on the project web site, and will experiment and tune the data sharing models and interfaces that will potentially be used for data sharing at large within the GEO Supersite iniziative

Outcomes of the MARsite project: . • • Geodetic monitoring of 4 D deformations in order to understand earthquake cycle processes, to develop probabilistic earthquake forecasting models and to constrain the seismic hazard models in the Marmara region; High resolution data acquired by a new generation deep multidisciplinary complete digital borehole seismic station; Rapid and quantitative Shake. Map scheme by implementing finite-source descriptions and calibrating with multiple geodetic/seismic data; Characterization of activated and reactivated Deep-seated Gravitational Slope Deformations (DGSD) determined through the integration of geological and geomorphological analyses with high-resolution DIn. SAR; Knowledge on the distribution of active structures in the Marmara Region and the amount of motion they localize; Geophysical, seismological, physical and geochemical data from automatic sea-floor devices (e. g. OBS, Piezometers, acoustic station and multidisciplinary SN 4 -type observatory) including data from periodical cruises for water column sampling and laboratory analyses, for seafloor degassing measurements; and Results on earthquake early-warning (EW) and rapid-response systems in the Marmara Region (Istanbul) with the addition of a pilot landslide monitoring and EW system and introduction of new space technologies for monitoring and assessment of vulnerabilities. Therefore, MARsite will surely have an important impact on the regional response for seismic risk prevention, but also plays a scientific/technical significant role as a European supersite.

JICA-JST Project (Japan-Turkey) Theme 1: Seafloor Observations for Earthquake Source Models in the Marmara Sea Region Subgroup 1. 1: Long-term sea-bottom seismic observation 1. 1. a Micro-Earthquake activity 1. 1. b Stress field evaluation 1. 1. c Seismic tomography Subgroup 1. 2: Electromagnetic observation Subgroup 1. 3: GPS-acoustic observation Subgroup 1. 4: Geo chemical studies (water chemistry, radon, temperature, gas exhalations, current etc. Theme 2: Estimation of Strong Ground Motion for Earthquake Source Models Subgroup 2. 1: Micro-tremor observation and subsoil structure Subgroup 2. 2: Observation of strong ground motion Subgroup 2. 3: Theoretical estimation of ground motion Theme 3: Experimental Study of Building Response to Strong Ground Motion Theme 4: Forecasts of Earthquake and Tsunami Occurrences in the Marmara Sea Region Subgroup 4. 1: Incorporation of seafloor seismic data into Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) Subgroup 4. 2: Simulation of large earthquake occurrence along the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Marmara Sea and estimation of possible rupture parameters Subgroup 4. 3: Tsunami simulations and hazard assessment. Subgroup 4. 4: Tsunami monitoring Theme 5: Understanding of historical large earthquakes at on-land branches of the western part of the North Anatolian Fault Subgroup 5. 1: Trenching studies Subgroup 5. 2: In. SAR studies Theme 6: Effective Dissemination of Earthquake Hazard Information Subgroup 6. 1: Earthquake monitoring in the Yalova-Izmit-Bursa-Sakarya area Subgroup 6. 2: Rapid information with collaboration of mass-media Subgroup 6. 3: Hazard and risk assessment with collaboration of administration Subgroup 6. 4: Disaster Education Program

JST superiority object Istanbul & Local regions around Marmara Sea ⇒ Nationwide in Turkey Implementing the proposed disaster prevention plan by Turkish Government Objective of JST Project Proposing a Disaster Prevention Plan against Marmara Earthquake on the basis of scientific research analyses Awareness training and disaster prevention plan against Marmara Earthquake 100% Creating reference materials for disaster education and for disaster prevention countermeasures Visualization Numerical modelling Visualization source region of the anticipated Marmara earthquake Evaluation of linkage of the anticipated Marmara earthquake based on the estimated source region Estimation of the source region Development of rapid analysis process Analysis of the anticipated Marmara earthquake and tsunami generation process Development and enlargement of the numerical simulation Estimation of fault shapes and fault brunches beneath the Sea of Marmara based on integrated data Integration of land sea data: ・Shape of fault and bathymetry ・Friction characteristics ・Plate motion velocity ・Historical seismic activity Integration of the data observed in (sea bottom) and around (land) the Sea of Marmara Preliminary numerical simulation Of tsunami and earthquake cycle ⇒ extraction of lack of data Japan-Turkey Joint seafloor observatory 1. Earthquake Source Model Improvement of hazard maps and visualizations Seismic assessment: Seismic evaluation considering retrofitting and seismic isolation ・ Prediction of building Vibration ・ Evaluation of existing structures Theoretical prediction of strong ground motion of the anticipated Marmara earthquake Estimation of subsurface structure Identification of the vibration characteristics of buildings based on design documents and experimental study Broadcasting the preliminary information through mass-media, telecommunication and internet ⇒Rapid response in the case of a disaster 80% Information dissemination Study Committee Extraction of necessary information from rapid analysis 60% Disaster education program and organizing the Content Disaster experience. Reflect the regional issues Regional disaster prevention community Determine each regions needs and problems Microtremor and earthquake Disaster management observation in and around the existing buildings (schools, hospitals, etc. ) symposium Numerical modeling of the active Faults beneath the Sea of Marmara Sharing experiences of earthquake – On the ground surface In the building based on the existing observational data (around the building) 1 st Floor and Top Floor tsunami victims from Japan and Turkey 2. Tsunami prediction based on earthquake scenarios 3. Seismic characterization and damage prediction 4. Disaster education using research result visuals 40% 20% 0%

Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute Thank you y. Thank you. . . 21