Hazardous Weather Ahead and Outlook for Winter 2009

Hazardous Weather Ahead and Outlook for Winter 2009 -2010 Dave Reynolds -MTR Dan Keeton - STO Meteorologists in Charge weather. gov/San. Francisco or /Sacramento

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WFO Product Timeline 7 -Day Forecast 3 -5 Day Outlook Special Weather Statement Hazardous Weather Outlook Marine Weather Statement Hydrologic Outlook potential Hazard Watch 12 to 48 hours ahead imminent Hazard Advisory Hazard Warning Nuisance Life and/or property threatening

Developing Stormy Pattern for California • This weather pattern, which features strong zonal flow aimed at portions of the west coast, is likely to last up to a week and maybe longer. • The pattern may be related to ongoing activity in the tropics associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. • This weather pattern is likely to be more transient in nature than that typically observed with El Nino. • El Nino does favor additional events of this type – but typically they occur later in the winter (January-February timeframe), and are associated with an amplified wave pattern, eastward extension of the Pacific Jetstream, and persistent pattern of storminess somewhat farther to the south.

MJO Index -- Recent Evolution § The axes (RMM 1 and RMM 2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes § The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO § Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. § Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength § Line colors distinguish different months The MJO has continued to propagate eastward.

Storm track and moisture source often associated with the MJO Setup for Atmospheric River

SSMI shows AR stretching across Pacific to Central California Atmospheric River Central CA >15 inches rain

Series of Storms Starting Sunday Night H Enhanced Jet Cold arctic air to move south and west Sunday Remnants of Typhoon NIDA MJO driven thunderstorms First Storm: Sunday Night – Monday Night More Storms: Tuesday – Next Week

ECMWF 156 -hr forecast 250 mb winds valid 12 Z Wed 09 Dec (knots)

In general there is widespread agreement on strong zonal flow into California next week. Maybe Centered south of Bay Area. Valid 4 pm Wednesday Dec 09

Drought Relief is Coming

Winter Outlook • Expect possible moderate strength El Nino to persist through spring. • Could bring recurrence to weather we will see next week. • May not see influence until January • Impacts still not certain

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – El Niño

Thunderstorm Activity Tropics Located over SSTs > 28 C

Mass of warm water under surface should maintain or enhance El Nino

Animation of subsurface tropical ocean temperatures

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 8 November 2009 The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts El Niño will last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

El Niños feature a strong jet stream and storm track across the southern part of the United States, and less storminess and milder-than-average conditions across the North.

ENSO strength vs SFD WY rainfall and sign of PDO Sept-Nov. Strong La Nina Weak/ Mod La Nina Neutral Weak/ Mod El Nino Strong El Nino

Where are we now? Years with closest fit MEI Ranking 72 -73 WY = +. 59 65 -66 WY = -. 25 57 -58 WY = +. 67 70 60 40 1972 -73 2009 -10 30 1965 -66 20 1957 -58 10 Monthly Pairs EC VD O N O TN C O SE PO C V T P SE G AU G JU LA U L JU N JU JU N M AY AY AP R M R AP AR M BM AR B FE FE N JA EC JA N 0 D Ranking 1 -60 50

U. S. Precipitation Tends Forecast for El Niño 09 -10

weather. gov/San. Francisco Hazard map – clickable Satellite Radar River Forecasts Forecast Discussion

Media Briefing • Any Questions? ?

Current state of ENSO • Last year moderate La Niña • Currently, moderate El Niño

Winter Predictions for 2009 -2010 So what does this forecast mean regarding our current drought situation? Most of California is currently under drought conditions Current drought conditions are likely to improve over the next several months

El Niño Generalities • During El Niño rainfall and thunderstorm activity diminishes over the western equatorial Pacific, and increases over the eastern half of the tropical Pacific. – This overall pattern of rainfall departures spans nearly one-half the distance around the globe, and is responsible for many of the global weather impacts caused by El Niño. • El Niño episodes feature large-scale changes in the atmospheric winds across the tropical Pacific, including reduced easterly (east-to-west) winds across the eastern Pacific in the lower atmosphere, and reduced westerly (west-to-east) winds over the eastern tropical Pacific in the upper atmosphere near the tropopause. •

El Niño’s affect on the Atmosphere • An eastward extension and equatorward shift of the jet stream from the International Date Line to the southwestern U. S. • A more west-to-east flow of jet stream winds across the U. S. • A southward shift of the storm track to the southern part of the United States. • A southward and eastward shift of the main region of cyclone formation to just west of California. • Results: a better chance of a stormy winter and increased precipitation across California and the southern U. S, and less stormy conditions across the northern part of the U. S. • Also, there is an enhanced flow of marine air into western North America, along with a reduced northerly flow of cold air from Canada to the U. S. These conditions result in a milder than normal winter across the northern states and western Canada.

El Niño: pronounced eastward extension of deep tropical convection and heating to well east of the date line which extends the subtropical ridges in both hemispheres to well east of the date line. This results in a pronounced eastward extension of the midlatitude jet stream to the extreme eastern Pacific and an equatorward shift of the jet streams over the eastern Pacific. This in turn has a major affect on the winter weather patterns and storm tracks.

Animation of subsurface tropical ocean temperatures