Goldman Stanley Inc Project Jaguar Presentation to the
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Goldman Stanley, Inc. Project Jaguar Presentation to the Board of Directors May 10, 2014 Goldman Stanley Confidential Draft
Table Of Contents Executive Summary 3 Jaguar Valuation 5 Potential Strategic Partners 19 Process Recommendations 22 Appendix 25 Goldman Stanley 2
Executive Summary Goldman Stanley 3
Executive Summary • As of May 9, 2014, Jaguar’s share price and valuation multiples have more than doubled over the last twelve months • Even at its current levels, however, Jaguar is still undervalued relative to peer specialty pharmaceutical companies, and on an intrinsic, cash flow basis • Given its prominence in the market, the record healthcare M&A activity in the first half of this year, and the soaring interest in “tax inversion” deals, Jaguar could make for an attractive acquisition candidate • Such a strategy would allow Jaguar to maximize shareholder value, expand its geographic reach and distribution channels, and acquire more resources for future research & development efforts and/or M&A activity • Given Jaguar’s unique attributes, we believe a purchase premium above 50%, implying a share price of ~$200+, is possible with the proper positioning and process • We recommend a highly targeted process focused on the most likely (“Tier 1”) potential partners, along with an outreach to Tier 2 potential partners while discussions with Tier 1 partners are ongoing Goldman Stanley 4
Jaguar Valuation Goldman Stanley 5
Valuation Summary • Since management’s view of Jaguar differs significantly from the “Street” view (research analyst consensus), we considered two scenarios in this analysis: § “Base Case”: Closely matches consensus view of Jaguar; Xyrem revenue grows to $2. 0 billion in FY 20 before declining to $300 million thereafter § Management Case: Xyrem revenue grows to $4. 2 billion in FY 21 before declining to $400 million thereafter § Key Differences: Xyrem generics entrance in FY 21, 50% lower annual price increases, and 20% lower market penetration assumed in Base Case § Other Notes: EBITDA margin steady at 48 -52% in both cases; Cap. Ex and Working Capital are similar percentages of revenue/expense line items • Under the Management Case projections, Jaguar appears to be undervalued by 50%+; under the Base Case projections, it might be undervalued by 20 -30% • Comparable public companies and the discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis imply largely the same result • Precedent Transactions imply a much lower implied valuation, but the multiples there are less relevant because of a number of older / less comparable deals Goldman Stanley 6
Base Case Financial Projections ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) Goldman Stanley 7
Management Case Financial Projections ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) Goldman Stanley 8
Valuation Summary – Base Case ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) Jaguar Current Share Price Public Company Comparables: LTM EV / Revenue: 12/31/2014 E EV / Revenue: 12/31/2015 E EV / Revenue: LTM EV / EBITDA: 12/31/2014 E EV / EBITDA: 12/31/2015 E EV / EBITDA: LTM Reported P / E: 12/31/2014 E Reported P / E: 12/31/2015 E Reported P / E: 25 th to Median to 75 th Precedent Transactions: LTM EV / Revenue: LTM EV / EBITDA: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: 7. 0% - 9. 0% Discount Rate, (1. 0%) - 1. 0% Terminal FCF Growth Rate: $0. 00 $50. 00 $100. 00 $150. 00 $200. 00 $250. 00 • All market data as of May 9, 2014 • Given that Jaguar’s revenue growth, EBITDA growth, and EBITDA margins exceed those of its peer companies, we believe a valuation in the 75 th percentile to maximum of the set is justified Goldman Stanley 9
Valuation Summary – Management Case ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) Jaguar Current Share Price Public Company Comparables: LTM EV / Revenue: 12/31/2014 E EV / Revenue: 12/31/2015 E EV / Revenue: LTM EV / EBITDA: 12/31/2014 E EV / EBITDA: 12/31/2015 E EV / EBITDA: LTM Reported P / E: 12/31/2014 E Reported P / E: 12/31/2015 E Reported P / E: 25 th to Median to 75 th Precedent Transactions: LTM EV / Revenue: LTM EV / EBITDA: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: 7. 0% - 9. 0% Discount Rate, (1. 0%) - 1. 0% Terminal FCF Growth Rate: $0. 00 $50. 00 $100. 00 $150. 00 $200. 00 $250. 00 $300. 00 Implied Share Price • All market data as of May 9, 2014 • The rest of this discussion will utilize the Management Case projections; here, these figures imply a valuation closer to $200 per share Goldman Stanley 10
Jaguar Comparable Public Companies Specialty Pharmaceutical Companies That Sell Primarily Branded Drugs, with LTM Revenue Between $500 Million and $2 Billion ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) Comparable Public Companies – Revenue and EBITDA, CY 2014 E – CY 2015 E $3. 0 B $2. 5 B $2. 0 B $1. 5 B $1. 0 B CY 2014 E Revenue CY 2015 E Revenue $0. 5 B $0. 0 B $1. 4 B $1. 2 B $1. 0 B $0. 8 B $0. 6 B $0. 4 B CY 2014 E EBITDA $0. 2 B $0. 0 B CY 2015 E EBITDA ($0. 2 B) ($0. 4 B) ($0. 6 B) Goldman Stanley 11
Jaguar Comparable Public Companies Specialty Pharmaceutical Companies That Sell Primarily Branded Drugs, with LTM Revenue Between $500 Million and $2 Billion ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) Comparable Public Companies – Growth and Valuation Multiples, CY 2014 E – CY 2015 E(1) Revenue Growth, CY 2014 E – CY 2015 E 120% EBITDA Growth, CY 2014 E – CY 2015 E 160% 111% 137% 140% 100% 120% 80% 100% 60% 80% 38% 40% 60% 32% 23% 20% 21% 11% 6% 18% 14% 20% 0% 0% NM CY 2015 E Revenue Multiples 14. 0 x 12. 0 x 10. 0 x 11. 6 x 9. 7 x 8. 0 x 5. 9 x 6. 0 x 4. 1 x 4. 0 x 2. 0 x 4. 7 x 3. 4 x 1. 9 x 0. 0 x Goldman Stanley (1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014. 100. 0 x 90. 0 x 80. 0 x 70. 0 x 60. 0 x 50. 0 x 40. 0 x 30. 0 x 20. 0 x 10. 0 x 41% 36% 40% NM 22% 10% CY 2015 E EBITDA Multiples 85. 8 x 22. 7 x 20. 5 x 9. 2 x NM 10. 9 x 6. 9 x 9. 7 x 12
Jaguar Precedent Transactions North American Pharmaceutical Sellers with Between $200 Million and $2 Billion In LTM Revenue, Jan. 1, 2009 – May 9, 2014 ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) Goldman Stanley 13
Jaguar Discounted Cash Flow Analysis ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) Goldman Stanley 14
Jaguar Discounted Cash Flow Analysis ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) • Discount Rate: 8. 07% • Model Uses “Management Case” Financial Projections • Mid-Year Convention Used for NPV of Cash Flows Goldman Stanley 15
Other Valuation Considerations • Jaguar’s corporate status in Ireland makes it an attractive candidate for a “tax inversion” deal • Effective tax rate of 18% vs. statutory US rate of 35 -40% could effectively add billions in value for the right acquirer § Salix Pharmaceuticals: Reduced tax rate would increase CY 2015 E Net Income from ~$450 million to ~$567 million, and at the same P / E multiple would add $2 billion in value to company’s Equity Value and Enterprise Value § $2 billion represents $31. 52 per share for Jaguar in a potential sale • Premiums Paid analysis for comparable transactions also indicates per-share premium of 30 -40% in recent deals: § Actavis / Forest Labs: 31% premium paid over average 10 -day price prior to deal § Mallinckrodt / Cadence: 32% premium paid over average 30 -day price § Salix / Santarus: 39% premium paid over average 30 -day price Goldman Stanley 16
Other Valuation Considerations Jaguar is also trading at a discount to recent stock price highs: $200. 00 6 M $180. 00 5 M $160. 00 Share Price $140. 00 4 M $120. 00 $100. 00 3 M $80. 00 2 M $60. 00 $40. 00 1 M $20. 00 $0. 00 0 M Volume Traded • Shares Traded (in Millions) • Share Price Given the stock price run-up over the past year, it may or may not be realistic to aim for the all-time high; the valuation methodologies, however, imply that a per-share price in that range is plausible Goldman Stanley 17
Valuation Conclusions • Given Jaguar’s attractive tax status, its historical and projected financial performance, and the potential of Xyrem, we believe a premium valuation is justified • The company’s margins and growth rates exceed those of its peer companies, and it has a lower tax rate than many of them, indicating that it should be valued in-line with, or above, the 75 th percentile of the comparable company set • A price of $200 / share (50%+ premium to the current price) should be the goal, with greater potential upside for a US-based partner and/or a partner with a complementary portfolio • The DCF analysis also confirms that a value between $170 / share and $240 / share is reasonable, based on conservative Discount Rate and Terminal Value estimates and Management Case financial projections • Premiums Paid analysis for recent deals indicates a median 30 -day average price premium of ~40%; this implies a per share value of $190 for Jaguar Goldman Stanley 18
Potential Strategic Partners Goldman Stanley 19
Potential Strategic Partners • Size, ability to pay, tax/corporate headquarters status, product/pipeline, and strategic fit should all be considered • US-headquartered partners are ideal since tax rates are highest there; several Canadian and Israeli companies could also qualify since tax rates are also higher than rates in the UK or Ireland • Both branded and generics companies should be considered, in light of recent M&A activity • Tier 1 Potential Strategic Partners § “Tier 1” acquisition candidates are significantly larger than Jaguar, are US-based with US corporate tax rates, and have a solid product/pipeline fit • Tier 2 Potential Strategic Partners § “Tier 2” acquisition candidates are closer to Jaguar’s size and therefore have a lower ability to pay, but are still US-based with US corporate taxes and a solid product/pipeline fit Goldman Stanley 20
Potential Partners Tier 1 Potential Partners Tier 2 Potential Partners Goldman Stanley 21
Process Recommendations Goldman Stanley 22
Key Recommendations • We recommend engaging in targeted discussions with the Tier 1 candidates and assessing their receptiveness to M&A discussions • At the same time, Goldman Stanley will reach out to Tier 2 candidates and introduce Jaguar as a potential partner • M&A process with Tier 1 candidates will take significantly longer due to the scale of the companies, so we recommend conducting both processes simultaneously • Depending on responses from Tier 1 and Tier 2 candidates, Goldman Stanley and Jaguar may do additional research to determine other potential partners and then approach them Targeted Sell-Side M&A Broad Sell-Side M&A < 5 potential partners 10 – 100 potential partners 6 – 12 months Time required is highly variable Close-ended Iterative process Higher success probability Lower success probability Goldman Stanley 23
Process Recommendation Specialized Negotiations With One Party Highly Targeted Process Targeted Discussions + Broader Search Broad M&A Process Broad Marketing RECOMMENDED • Combination of targeted discussions plus broader search conducted in background maximizes success probability and minimizes disruption to Jaguar • Additional parties contacted depend on responsiveness of Tier 1 and Tier 2 partners • Interested parties would sign NDAs and then proceed into due diligence and valuation discussions with Jaguar Goldman Stanley 24
Appendix Goldman Stanley 25
Xyrem and Erwinaze Projections – Management ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) Goldman Stanley 26
Jaguar Income Statement – Management Case ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) Goldman Stanley 27
Jaguar Comparable Public Companies Specialty Pharmaceutical Companies That Sell Primarily Branded Drugs, with LTM Revenue Between $500 Million and $2 Billion ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) Goldman Stanley (1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014. 28
Jaguar DCF Analysis – WACC Calculation ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) Goldman Stanley (1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014. 29
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