Election what election Lowlevel campaigns in safe constituencies

‘Election, what election? ’ Low-level campaigns in safe constituencies 1987 -2010 Alia Middleton University of Edinburgh A. F. Middleton@sms. ed. ac. uk

Outline • • • Safe constituencies Identifying low-level campaigns Low levels of campaigning and safe constituencies Constructing the model Testing the model Conclusion – what challenges are there for campaigning?

A few things • • Campaigns as sources of information Vote share and turnout changes Can both mobilise and convert voters Why 1987 -2010?

Safe constituencies • • What are safe constituencies? Existing literature Seat change possible Strength in numbers

Identifying low-level campaigns • Enables a relative measure of campaigning – where are parties campaigning less? • Campaign expenditure – Denver et al 2004 Q 1 Campaign activity Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Low-level

Identifying low-level campaigns - New measure - Incumbency and parties - Vote share vs. turnout Q 1 Low-level Q 2 Incumbent Q 3 Q 4 Campaign spend Q 1 Q 2 Opposition Q 3 Q 4 Low-level

Low level campaigning and safe constituencies • In most cases there is an association between high majorities and low-level campaigns • Incumbency matters: opposition candidates are more likely to run low-level campaigns • Party also matters

Constructing the model • Same model retained for both vote share and turnout • 2 groups of control variables – Political context – Socio-demographic context • Run only for safe constituencies

Testing the model i: low level campaigns and vote share • • • Incumbent vs. opposition Conservatives Labour Lib Dems In most cases low-level campaigns run by opposition parties depress vote share

Testing the model ii: low level campaigns and turnout • Combined measure for top two parties • Significant results 1997 onwards only • 2001 - low level campaigns by opponents reduced turnout by over 2 percentage points • In 2005, low-level campaigns by top two parties reduced turnout by 1. 2 percentage points

Conclusion • Opposition candidates typically run low level campaigns in safe seats • This is where the greatest detrimental impact is found • Campaigning is important; where it is lacking it can be harmful • Challenges to campaigning