Decision Making Prof Jim Saker Two Sorts of

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Decision Making Prof Jim Saker

Decision Making Prof Jim Saker

Two Sorts of Thinking • • • Analytical Logic Unique or few answers Convergent

Two Sorts of Thinking • • • Analytical Logic Unique or few answers Convergent Vertical • Creative • Imagination • Many possible ideas & answers • Divergent • Lateral

Typical Problem • You have one fox and two chickens that you need to

Typical Problem • You have one fox and two chickens that you need to get across a river. You can only take one at a time. The fox will eat the chickens if left alone.

Climbing the Munchinhorn • Group Exercise What would you do in this situation? Describe

Climbing the Munchinhorn • Group Exercise What would you do in this situation? Describe what you think are the objectives. Describe your strategy and tactics.

Ethical Values • What are your ethical values when looking at risk in the

Ethical Values • What are your ethical values when looking at risk in the decision making process? • Two basic philosophical options Consequentialist Categorical

The Future of Automotive Retailing Prof Jim Saker

The Future of Automotive Retailing Prof Jim Saker

The Big Picture What are the big issues confronting the car industry of the

The Big Picture What are the big issues confronting the car industry of the next ten years? • Ethical Issues – How we make decisions as an industry • Change in Power Train • The Connected Car • The Debate over who owns the customer • Autonomous Vehicles and Mobility

Ethical Issues VW Passat - VW Jetta - BMW X 5

Ethical Issues VW Passat - VW Jetta - BMW X 5

Wilful Blindness • A major factor behind this is the concept of wilful blindness

Wilful Blindness • A major factor behind this is the concept of wilful blindness which was first identified by Judge Simeon Lake when instructing the jury in the Enron case: • ‘You may find that a defendant had knowledge of a fact if you find that the defendant deliberately closed his eyes to what could otherwise have been obvious to him. Knowledge can be inferred if the defendant deliberately blinded himself to the existence of a fact. ’

Death of Children 10

Death of Children 10

Who is he? Alan Greenspan is a financial adviser best known for his service

Who is he? Alan Greenspan is a financial adviser best known for his service as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of the United States from 1987 to 2006.

Macro-environmental Forces At different times different forces are more influential What are the key

Macro-environmental Forces At different times different forces are more influential What are the key forces at work at this present time?

Political, Environmental and Economic • • The VW case has raised the Political interest

Political, Environmental and Economic • • The VW case has raised the Political interest in the motor industry Need for transparency and ethical approaches Highlighted the issue of the environment Industry under pressure to address not only emissions but also alternative mobility options • The motor industry is still seen by Governments as being key to economic development

Changing Technology • Changing Power Train • The Internet of Everything Connected Car Cyber

Changing Technology • Changing Power Train • The Internet of Everything Connected Car Cyber Security Digital Communication • Implications and Licensing of Technicians

The Internet of Everything

The Internet of Everything

The Connected Car and Data • • The concept of the connected car raises

The Connected Car and Data • • The concept of the connected car raises a number of questions: Who owns the customer? Who has access to the customer information? EU General Data Protection Regulation 2018 Will demand greater levels of cybersecurity, the appointment of a data controller and the recording of transactions – customers will have the right to ‘opt out’ or simply be ‘forgotten. ’ What is the role of the dealer network? Is there any place for independents in this new interconnected world?

Cyber Security

Cyber Security

Social Cultural Change • Social Cultural changes have taken place with respect to ownership

Social Cultural Change • Social Cultural changes have taken place with respect to ownership as opposed to usage • Young people have different attitudes to information and its sources • Changes in how retail customers purchase • Changes in how businesses purchase • Different mobility options available

Changing Sales Process • • • The Informed Customer Millennials Selling or Facilitation Virtual

Changing Sales Process • • • The Informed Customer Millennials Selling or Facilitation Virtual Test Drives The move to online selling by manufacturers Dealers offering ‘click and collect’ but focussing on used and service.

BMW Online

BMW Online

Rockar

Rockar

What are the key digital drivers? 2014 ‘CONTENT’ 2015 REAL TIME 2016 INFLUENCE

What are the key digital drivers? 2014 ‘CONTENT’ 2015 REAL TIME 2016 INFLUENCE

SOCIAL INFILTRATION

SOCIAL INFILTRATION

What will car retailing look like in 10 years?

What will car retailing look like in 10 years?

Using a PESTLE Framework what will the HGV sector look like in 10 years

Using a PESTLE Framework what will the HGV sector look like in 10 years time? Who will be the big players?