California Prunes in the Next Decade Jane Asmar

California Prunes in the Next Decade Jane Asmar, National Raisin Jaswant Bains, Sacramento Packing Dane Lance, Sunsweet Growers George Sousa, Jr. , Mariani Packing MODERATED BY DONN ZEA, CALIFORNIA PRUNE BOARD 1

Globally, Prunes are the 3 rd largest category of exported Dried Fruit accounting for 8% volume share 2018/19 Global Exports of Dried Fruit: % Share by Type (All Exporting Countries*, by Volume) [CATEGORY NAME] [PERCENTAGE] share Dried Apricots 6% Dried Figs 7% Dates 33% Dried Grapes 38% Dried Sweetened Cranberries 8% Source: TDM, year ending July/* Estimated 2018/19 volumes for Iranian exports 2

California Prunes are a particularly important category for U. S. Dried Fruit exports 2018/19 US Exports of Dried Fruit: % share by Type (by Volume) Dates 5% Prunes 16% Dried Sweetened Cranberries 42% 42 Dried Grapes 36% Dried Figs 1% Dried Apricots 0% Source: TDM, year ending July 3

Global Production in Relative Balance with Shipments, but… Production Shipments Beg. Inventory Metric Tons 350 000 300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 Source: IPA /10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 9 0 20 20 20 4

2020 Global Over-Supply Magnitude DRIED FRUITS & NUTS 2020 GLOBAL OVER-SUPPLY MAGNITUDE 12 -Month Demand / Available Supply Prunes Pine Nuts (Kernal Basis) Pine Nuts (in Shell) Pecans (Kernal Basis) Pistachios Raisins Dried Apricots Almonds Cashews Amazonia Brazil Nuts. . . Amazonia Brazil Nuts (I. . . Dried Figs Peanuts (in Shell) Dates Hazelunts (Kernal Basis) Hazelunts (in Shell) Walnuts (Kernal Basis) Dried Cranberries Macadamias (Kernal. . . Macadamias ( in Shell) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 5

California Inventory, NC Tons 90 000 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 CY 10 Source: Processors' Reports CY 11 CY 12 CY 13 Beginning Inventory CY 14 CY 15 CY 16 Linear(Beginning Inventory) CY 17 CY 18 CY 19 6

California Production and Total Shipments, NC Tons 120 000 100 000 (estimate) 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 CY 14 Source: Processors' Reports CY 15 Production CY 16 CY 17 Shipments Linear(Production) CY 18 CY 19 est 7

California shipments and imports as related to price/nct Grower Price: $2, 482/nct Imports Domestic Shipments 140 000 Grower Price: $1, 710/nct 120 000 100 000 Grower Price: $1, 168/nct 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 0 2009/10 2010/11 Source: California Prune Board Handlers’ Reports & FAS 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 8

California is the largest producer and the 2 nd largest exporter of Prunes: Top 5 Exporting Countries 2018/19 Prunes: Top 5 Producing Countries 2019 Source: INC, Calendar years Source: TDM, yr. end July 100 000 80 000 90 000 70 000 60 000 70 000 Metric Tons 80 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 0 US Chile France Argentina Serbia Chile US Argentina France 9 Serbia

Significant & uncontrollable events impacting California Prune exports • Russia trade sanctions • Short Crop • Contraction of German & Japanese markets led by escalating prices • Trade war with China • Vietnam & Hong Kong transshipments to China have nearly ceased. • Chile entering key EU markets US Prune Exports (Metric Tons) • China, Hong Kong & Vietnam loss vs 2012/13 • Continued contraction of Germany & Japan led by high prices • Short Crop 63 482 68 625 67 966 70 800 50 738 47 621 39 178 33 947 36 824 32 919 • Strengthening U. S. $ 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Source: TDM reporting countries, year ending July. Excludes Iran 10

World Exports to China/H. K. /Vietnam (Metric Tons) 14 000 12 000 Total 10 000 8 000 U. S. 6 000 Chile 4 000 2 000 France - Others 2015 Source: Global Trade Atlas 2016 2017 2018 2019 11

California Prune exports command a price premium over competitors, and the gap has increased. Average Export Price (per MT) 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 vs 2017/18 US $3, 882 $4, 183 $4, 316 $3, 927 $4, 020 +2% Chile $3, 582 $2, 694 $2, 194 $2, 319 $2, 235 -4% France $3, 812 $4, 284 $3, 789 $3, 628 $2, 522 -30% Argentina $2, 521 $2, 031 $2, 086 $1, 973 $1, 767 -10% Serbia $2, 858 $2, 403 $2, 023 $2, 705 $2, 162 -20% Country: Price Index 140 US 130 120 Chile 110 100 France 90 80 Argentina 70 60 Serbia 50 40 2014/15 2015/16 Source: GTA EXPORTS Prices indexed against non-weighted Industry Average ($3, 331) in 2014/15 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 12

Supply by Size (NC Tons) 180 000 160 000 13 140 000 120 000 10 257 14 534 80 000 34 961 21 783 13 200 22 779 12 675 15 000 50 322 57 114 51 768 61 to 80 81 to 100 101 and smaller 60 000 40 000 20 000 CY 16 Source: Processors' Reports 60 and larger 64 560 64 286 CY 17 76 424 CY 18 91 609 CY 19 Estimate* *Estimate includes 95, 000 tons of production for the 2019 crop year. 13

Thank you! 14