Worldwide Integrated Crisis Early Warning System WICEWS LOCKHEED

Worldwide Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (WICEWS) LOCKHEED MARTIN © 2015

World Crisis Climate Worldwide Country Crisis-Months* 350 300 250 Insurgency 200 Domestic Political Crisis Rebellion 150 Ethnic/Religious Violence 100 International Crisis 50 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 • Over the past 10 years, the world has seen a 60% increase in crisis activity, and that rate is accelerating. • Over the past 7 months (8/13 -2/14) the world has seen onsets in DPC (23); ERV (5); Insurgencies (6); International Crises (9); Rebellions(2). Analysts cannot keep up with frequency, complexity, pace, & uncertainty of crises. Results in surprise and reactive response vs. proactive shaping. *Statistics based on W-ICEWS Ground Truth Set LOCKHEED MARTIN © 2015 2

W-ICEWS Executive Summary • ICEWS was a 4 -year DARPA program to assess the ability of computational social science models forecasting destabilizing Events of Interest (EOIs). • ICEWS technology proved successful and of high interest to COCOM participants. • ASD R&E has taken responsibility moving forward (2/12) under the Worldwide-ICEWS (W-ICEWS) program. • Objectives: To refine, harden, and transition capabilities to a Do. D Program of Record (in progress). News Report, Web sites i. TRACE i. CAST i. SENT News Events Analysis Instability Forecasting Sentiment Assessment Current and Historical understanding of events (trends/patterns) Accurate anticipation of Instability Analysis of population attitude, info propagation LOCKHEED MARTIN © 2015 Social Media, Blogs, etc. 3

i. TRACE: Events and Trends • Key Capability – Monitors events, trends, and patterns – Extracts event type, participants and intensity, locations, and times – Unstructured open news sources – Graphic display with drill-down to underlying news stories from 6000+ global sources (Factiva, OSC, etc. ) – Over 30 million news stories yielding over 20 million unique events worldwide • Currently achieving ~87% accuracy (Foreign Language Translations ~78% - Spanish, Portuguese, French, Arabic) • W-ICEWS-X: Group Tracking, Arabic, Classified sources LOCKHEED MARTIN © 2015 4

i. CAST: Forecasting • Key Capabilities – Forecasts destabilizing Events of Interest (EOIs) across a COCOMs AOR (167 countries worldwide monthly forecasts) – EOI Types • Domestic political crisis • International crisis • Ethnic/religious violence • Insurgencies • Rebellions • Protests (experimental) – Aggregates >75 heterogeneous models for monthly rolling 6 -month forecast Event Occurred • Currently achieving >90% accuracy with <20% false alarms • W-ICEWS-X: Province-Week level unit of analysis, Violent Events LOCKHEED MARTIN © 2015 5

i. SENT: Social Media & Sentiment • Key Capabilities – Measures population attitudes and perception on issues, people, and events from social media – Flexible collection platform allows for multiple data types across many different sources both free and paid (Datasift) services o Twitter, Facebook, You. Tube, Instagram, News, Blog, Web, Crawl – Monitors sentiment propagation across the internet – Identifies key sites and people in shaping opinion dynamics – Geographic sentiment tracking – English, Spanish, and Arabic Language Big Data Solution for Social Media Monitoring and Exploitation LOCKHEED MARTIN © 2015 6

W-ICEWS Transition Summary • W-ICEWS Testbed – Unclassified servers hosted at Lockheed (previously at USSOUTHCOM) with broad government access for experimentation/evaluation – User community spanning Do. D, Do. S, IC, and other government agencies (700+ registered users) • STRATCOM ISPAN Program of Record (LM IS&GS Defense) – i. TRACE available in ISPAN on SIPRNet since 4/2012 and JWICS since 6/2012 – i. CAST available in ISPAN on SIPRNet since 3/2014 and JWICS since 6/2014. – i. SENT scheduled (but not resourced) for release in ISPAN in 2015 LOCKHEED MARTIN © 2015 7