UNCLASSIFIED Future Hunters Lesson 2 Part 2 Recognizing

UNCLASSIFIED Future Hunters Lesson 2 (Part 2 Recognizing Bias) What’s in this Lesson 1. Learning objective 2. Lesson intent 3. Reading assignment 4. Warm up by watching video 5. What is a bias and why should we recognize it? 6. Quiz 7. Writing Assignment Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 1

UNCLASSIFIED Lesson 2 Part 2 Learning Objective By the end of this lesson, you will be expected to: • Describe a future hunter’s mindset. • Discuss the differences between a fixed mindset and a growth mindset • Explain the importance of recognizing and mitigating bias • Describe the importance of assessing your own biases and unproductive habits • Discuss how to modify your own state of mind to become more productive and more creative. Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 2

UNCLASSIFIED Lesson 2 Part 2 Author’s Intent Lesson intent • You will learn that the ability to be a Future Hunter starts with an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of one’s cognitive processes and finding ways to strengthen in areas where growth is beneficial. • You will explore the importance of a growth mindset to allow continuous learning from your environment. • You may assess your own biases and unproductive habits and learn to modify your state of mind to become more productive and more creative. Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 3

UNCLASSIFIED Lesson 2 Part 2 Reading Assignment If you can’t get the book, watch “Nudge in 2 minutes” on https: //www. youtube. com/watc h? v=Qz. Gk_1 Zjr 14 If you can read the bookfocus on Part 1: Biases and Blunders Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 4

UNCLASSIFIED What is a Nudge? Suggestions that support better decisions: choice architecture Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 5

UNCLASSIFIED Underlying Idea in Nudge Overview of the book: • Our understanding of human behavior can be improved by appreciating how people systematically go wrong • Humans should be able to make unbiased forecasts (which can be wrong, but not systematically wrong in a predictable direction). Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 6

UNCLASSIFIED Underlying Idea in Nudge Two systems of how we think • Intuitive and automatic: rapid and instinctive lizard brain • Reflective and rational: Deliberate and self-conscious process Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 7

UNCLASSIFIED Underlying Idea in Nudge Humans predictably err • Never underestimate the power of inertia (Status quo bias). • So…. power can be harnessed by making the preferred choice the default option • This is an example of how we nudge by providing a choice architecture that supports better decisions Victory Starts Here! https: //www. marketingsociety. com/the-gym/bias-spotlight-status-quo-bias UNCLASSIFIED 8

UNCLASSIFIED Exploring Common Biases Anchoring-starting with what you know and adjust in what you think is the right direction. Anchors serve as nudges. https: //www. abtasty. com/blog/anchoring-bias-decision-making/ Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 9

UNCLASSIFIED Exploring Common Biases Availabilty Availability-likelihood of risk is associated with how readily examples come to mind. Accessibility and salience (personal experience) are closely related to availability. This can lead to false assessment of risk. https: //www. tutor 2 u. net/economics/reference/availability-heuristic-or-availability-bias Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 10

UNCLASSIFIED Exploring Common Biases Representativeness (similarity) heuristic-what things look like. One can be fooled by randomness. Seeing patterns where none exist. Looking for some good reading-these books are recommended Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 11

UNCLASSIFIED Exploring Common Biases Optimism and Overconfidence Optimism and overconfidence-unrealistic optimism can lead to risk taking endeavors. * *Also called the planning fallicy and it is the bane of my existence. Apologies to all of my collaborators on this project. KDH Victory Starts Here! https: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=e 9 ER 2 Yg. I 0 c 0 UNCLASSIFIED 12

UNCLASSIFIED Exploring Common Biases Gains and Losses Gains and losses-people do not like to lose. Loss aversion produces inertia, stick with the status quo. https: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Loss_aversion Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 13

UNCLASSIFIED Exploring Common Biases More Examples Here is a fun, informative video that describes common biases https: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=w. Ew. GBIr_RIw Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 14

UNCLASSIFIED Lesson Summary Humans have cognitive bias-it’s best to be aware of bias impacts our critical and creative thinking. Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 15

UNCLASSIFIED Lesson Quiz Part two Online Quiz Link: https: //docs. google. com/forms/d/e/1 FAIp. QLScr. D WPh 9 f. Fq. MBc_Zh. Gr. Q 80 K 3 Er. CEh. GQ 4 h. Nvp. Qh. Tv. SKYYR_Ug/viewform? usp=sf_link Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 16

UNCLASSIFIED Lesson Writing Assignment Upon great reflection, write a one- page paper on what you think your most egregious bias might be? For example, do you suffer from the over-optimism or overconfidence bias like one of the authors of this lesson? Or do you have another blind spot that keeps you from being your most productive? Post your writing in Cadet Portfolio and start a discussion in APAN Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 17

UNCLASSIFIED Lesson 2 Part 2 Bonus Assignment Have you ever used nudges to influence decision making of others? If so, how well did it work? If not, how might you employ nudges to influence decision making of others in the future? Write a one-page paper on how you might go about this. Explain why this might be valuable to you, especially as a Future Hunter. Post your writing in Cadet Portfolio and start a discussion in APAN Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 18