NATO UNCLASSIFIED Supreme Allied Commander Transformation Advance Planning

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Supreme Allied Commander Transformation Advance Planning Wayne Buck 05 -Mar-21 NATO UNCLASSIFIED ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

Agenda • • 05 -Mar-21 FUSOL Background and context M&S in Support of Analysis The Future MSG-167 NATO UNCLASSIFIED 2 ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

M&S in Support of Analysis M&S Support to Analysis includes: • operations analysis, • planning, • decision making, • concept development, and • any other area that is not related to training eg test and evaluation 05 -Mar-21 FUSOL NATO UNCLASSIFIED 3 ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

Activities Supporting the Growth of M&S Support to Analysis • Studies directed by NATO HQ • MSG 167 – NATO Simulation for Uses Other Than Training • MSG 155 – Data Farming Services for Analysis and Simulation Based Decision Support • MSG 150 – M&S Supporting NATO CD&E • SAS 130 – Course of Action Analysis in the 21 st Century • SAS 139 – NATO Analytical Wargaming – Innovative Approaches for Data Capture, Analysis and Exploitati • 05 -Mar-21 FUSOL NATO UNCLASSIFIED 4 ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

Advance Planning “We took measures to speed up our political and military decision-making, while maintaining political control. “These include the authority for our Supreme Commander SACEUR to alert, stage and prepare our troops to be ready to go once the political decision is made. We also approved a new concept of advance planning. Detailed advance planning and rapid decision-making are two sides of the same coin. They mean we are able to respond more rapidly and more effectively to threats – wherever they might come from. ” Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, June 24, 2015 05 -Mar-21 FUSOL NATO UNCLASSIFIED 5 ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

A 2 AD Simulation Study (wargaming) A simulation data driven analytical study to inform military judgement and advice regarding an advance plan. First time since 1985. 05 -Mar-21 FUSOL NATO UNCLASSIFIED 6 ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

A 2 AD Simulation Study Advance Planning Jun 16 - Initial thoughts Dec 16 – NAC / MC tasker 2017 – plan and rehearse 2018 – Jan-Mar execute 2018 – Apr-Jun write and staff Eessentially, a small CAX Heavy use of analysts STORM – closed JTLS - open 05 -Mar-21 FUSOL STORM Identify Vignettes Planners Develop Con. Ops Analysis Guide Planners NATO UNCLASSIFIED MJP Prioritise Vignettes JTLS Cycle Parameters Planning Handshake Execution Outputs AAR 2 -3 Days ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

About 35, 000 – 40, 000 manhours Or about 22 manyears One week of rehearsal Two x two week execution sessions Hundreds of facilitated discussions NATO UNCLASSIFIED 8 ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

Results Hard Results – cannot share Soft Results - Planners plan for the plan that has the most chance of success while achieving commander’s intent - Planners need to learn they can fail while planning - All plans need to be joint from the beginning - NATO needs data driven analysis to inform decision makers - Need more wargaming 05 -Mar-21 FUSOL NATO UNCLASSIFIED 9 ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

Connections UK 2018 05 -Mar-21 FUSOL NATO UNCLASSIFIED 10 ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

I 3 Week NATO UNCLASSIFIED ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

The Future • Follow on NMSG/SAS TG for NATO Simulation for Uses Other Than Training • M&S and OR teams now have wargaming in job descriptions • Continue to collect information • Share information in Education / Marketing in venues • NATO Military Strategy Wargame – Mar 19 • Pol. Mil Wargame late 2019 or early 2020 • More studies 05 -Mar-21 FUSOL NATO UNCLASSIFIED 12 ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

Wayne Buck buck@act. nato. int 05 -Mar-21 FUSOL NATO UNCLASSIFIED 13 ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two