Tennessee Education Lottery Scholarship Program Special Report Tennessee

Tennessee Education Lottery Scholarship Program Special Report Tennessee Higher Education Commission January 27, 2011 Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Four Distinct Studies 1. Impact of the Lower GPA Requirement at the 48 Hour Benchmark on College Retention 2. Impact of the Provisional Renewal Rule 3. Lottery Scholarship and Affordability 4. The General Assembly Merit Scholarship and its Outcomes 2 Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Cumulative GPA Scholarship Renewal Requirement 3. 00 2. 75 Provisional Track (3. 0 Term GPA also required) Before 2008 After 2008 48 72 96 24 Cumulative Credit Hours (Attempted) Tennessee Higher Education Commission 3

Impact of the Lower GPA Requirement at the 48 Hour Benchmark on College Retention Main Findings • 2008 -09: 1, 607 students benefited, $5. 9 million; • 2009 -10: 1, 856 students, $7. 0 million; • In Fall 2009, “ 2. 75 beneficiaries” accounted for 9. 7 percent of TELS students with 48 -71 credit hours; • “ 2. 75 beneficiaries” had a higher enrollment share of males, African-American, and low-income students compared to regular recipients; and • The fall-to-fall scholarship renewal rate was 55. 8 percent for Fall 2009 first-time 2. 75 beneficiaries (88% for TELS overall). 4 Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Predicted Chances for Returning in Next Fall Semester 4 -year 86 90 76 Percent 80 70 86 91 78 92 95 8, 0 $7, 55 7, 0 65 60 5, 0 50 4, 0 $2, 86 40 3, 0 30 2, 0 20 10 $0, 33 1, 0 $0, 38 Expenditures 100 Millions 2 -year 0, 0 0 Low-income Mid-high Income Non-Beneficiaries Low-income 2. 75 Beneficiaries Mid-high Income Expenditures 5

Impact of the Provisional Renewal Rule Main Findings • 2008 -09: 1, 185 students benefited, $2. 9 million; • 2009 -10: 1, 701 students, $4. 3 million; • In Fall 2009, provisional recipients accounted for 6. 1 percent of TELS students with 72 or more credit hours; • Provisional recipients had higher enrollment shares of males, African-American, and low-income students compared to non-provisional recipients; • Approximately half of provisional students entered the provisional path at the 72 credit hour benchmark; and • The fall-to-fall scholarship renewal rate for provisional students was 49 percent (86% for TELS overall). 6 Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Lottery Scholarship and Affordability Question: How much has the lottery scholarship reduced students’ financial burden? Main Findings • Students from the most affluent families appear to have the financial ability to pay the total cost of attendance without the lottery scholarship. • The scholarship dollars awarded $90 million to such students. Notes: • Analysis limited to full-time, undergraduate, Tennessee resident students, age 24 or less, FAFSA applicants. • Total Student Resources = Lottery + TSAA + Pell + Expected Family Contribution (EFC) • Average award amounts include both TELS recipients and non-recipients 7 Tennessee Higher Education Commission

45 Thousands Total Student Resources at TBR Universities by Income Level, 2009 -10 38, 7 40 35 Total Student Resources 30 25 20, 8 16, 8 20 15 10 7, 2 7, 6 8, 3 10, 4 13, 2 5 - Students Cost of Attendance Total TELS TSAA PELL EFC <$12 K 8 482 18 496 7 235 1 267 508 5 113 347 $12 K-$24 K-$36 K-$48 K-$60 K-$72 K-$84 K-$96 K 6 801 5 789 4 469 4 083 3 764 3 541 3 179 18 496 18 496 7 571 8 281 8 311 10 387 13 204 16 848 20 761 1 563 2 081 1 739 2 026 2 204 2 333 2 343 534 437 111 18 5 4 665 3 808 1 781 613 188 36 25 809 1 956 4 680 7 730 10 807 14 479 18 393 >$96 K 10 585 18 496 38 747 2 501 7 36 239 8

46, 9 45 40 35 Total Student Resources 30 25 18, 5 20 15 10 8, 2 8, 5 9, 5 11, 3 22, 3 14, 4 5 - Students Cost of Attendance Total TELS TSAA PELL EFC <$12 K 3 005 18 126 8 215 1 873 619 5 065 658 $12 K-$24 K-$36 K-$48 K-$60 K-$72 K-$84 K-$96 K 2 482 2 389 2 010 2 079 1 990 2 062 2 042 18 126 18 126 8 470 9 499 9 457 11 306 14 358 18 542 22 345 2 270 2 811 2 271 2 432 2 554 2 704 2 761 672 588 177 38 8 4 725 3 882 1 872 744 211 45 6 803 2 218 5 138 8 092 11 586 15 793 19 578 >$96 K 10 754 18 126 46 867 2 984 0 5 43 877 9 Thousands 50 Total Student Resources at UT Campuses by Income Level, 2009 -10

35 Thousands Total Student Resources at TBR Community Colleges by Income Level, 2009 -10 31, 8 30 25 18, 3 20 14, 3 15 10 5 Students Cost of Attendance 2 Cost of Attendance 1 Total TELS TSAA PELL EFC 5, 7 <$12 K 12 645 14 570 8 945 5 671 272 155 5 119 125 5, 7 6, 3 6, 5 8, 1 11, 0 $12 K-$24 K-$36 K-$48 K-$60 K-$72 K-$84 K-$96 K 8 302 5 962 3 832 3 341 2 821 2 384 1 807 14 570 14 570 8 945 8 945 5 747 6 277 6 545 8 105 11 047 14 337 18 278 365 571 485 590 702 776 777 161 49 9 2 4 737 3 884 1 882 655 172 51 27 468 1 660 4 129 6 851 10 172 13 510 17 474 >$96 K 3 906 14 570 8 945 31 844 815 1 21 31 007 10

Thousands Total Student Resources at Private Institutions by Income Level, 2009 -10 46, 6 50 45 40 35 Total Student Resources 30 21, 7 25 20 15 10 8, 4 8, 5 9, 3 8, 7 10, 2 13, 2 17, 2 5 - Students Cost of Attendance Total TELS TSAA PELL EFC <$12 K 3 566 27 364 8 393 1 339 1 456 5 159 440 $12 K-$24 K-$36 K-$48 K-$60 K-$72 K-$84 K-$96 K 2 599 2 303 1 747 1 608 1 488 1 385 1 274 27 364 27 364 8 511 9 281 8 675 10 232 13 193 17 201 21 739 1 638 2 174 1 842 2 166 2 321 2 534 2 529 1 495 1 316 512 73 7 3 4 835 4 042 2 181 731 213 64 28 543 1 749 4 140 7 262 10 652 14 600 19 182 >$96 K 5 155 27 364 46 591 2 818 1 11 43 761 11

TELS Paid Beyond Total Cost of Attendance $ 90, 0 Shortfall in TSAA $ 86, 3 - 20 40 Tennessee Higher Education Commission 60 80 100 Millions 12

The General Assembly Merit Scholarship and its Outcomes This study was added to THEC reporting requirements by T. C. A. § 49 -4903(d) Main Findings • Fall 2009: 1, 389 GAMS freshmen (5. 2% of TELS overall) • The most recent second year scholarship renewal rate for GAMS recipients was 90% (55% for TELS overall). • The 5 -year graduation rate for GAMS was 81% (50% for TELS Overall) • The 5 -year graduation rate with the scholarship for GAMS was 73% (33% for TELS overall). • The GAMS renewal requirement is relatively easier compared to similar high-ability scholarship programs in other Southern states. • The “Market Penetration Rate” for high-achieving public high school graduates was 65 percent in Fall 2009. Tennessee Higher Education Commission 13

Top 20 Out-of-state Institutions Enrolling Most High Achieving Tennessee Students for the Last Four Years (2006 -2009) 14 Tennessee Higher Education Commission