Regional Trade Agreements in Asia and The Multilateral

Regional Trade Agreements in Asia and The Multilateral Trade System Dr. Brigid Gavin United Nations University Comparative Regional Integration Studies United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS

Outline of Presentation • • • ‘New Regionalism’ in Asia Assessing the Impact of RTAs WTO Rules on RTAs Implications for the MTS Conclusions United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS

New Regionalism in Asia • • New trend since 1990 s ASEAN FTA in 1992 Goal: Economic Community 2020 ASEAN + 3: Framework Agreements with China, Japan and South Korea • East Asia: 16 FTAs in exisxtence and 22 under negotiation United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS

2 New Aspects • New Direction – Traditional strong support for WTO – From multilateralism to regionalism? • New Trade Issues – Slow progress at WTO level – RTAs advance on new issues United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS

How to assess RTAs? • Policy makers: Impact assessment? • Traditional approach to tariffs: – Trade creation vs. trade diversion • Recent approach to rule-making: – rules for new trade issues? – Coherence or fragmentation for global trade? United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS

WTO rules for RTAs • • • RTAs recognised since 1947 WTO rules not clear and precise New Committee on RTAs: 1996 No progress made on systemic rules Current Situation: each RTA judged on inidvidual basis United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS

Assessing FTAs in Asia • Manufacturing – East Asia has already low MFN tariffs – Intensive trade in ‘Factory Asia’ – FTAs will contribute few benefits – Risk: rules of origin will increase costs – Need for pan-Asian system of cumulation United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS

Agriculture • • • Agricultural trade relatively small Currently: sensitive sector Collapse of Doha Round Changing patterns of production China may become major importer Future: potential for regional trade United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS

Services • • Current FTAs: not beyond GATS Services growing faster than goods East Asian countries major exporters 2 models of liberalisation: GATS and NAFTA • Implications for financial services? United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS

Conclusions • Too early to say whether ‘building blocks’ or ‘stumbling blocks’ • Benefits: ‘faster’ liberalisation as MTS negotiations are stalled • Risks: rules of origin and different regulatory models in services United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS

Thank you bgavin@cris. unu. edu United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS