Future Concepts Turning Water into Wine Keith Goodman

Future Concepts Turning Water into Wine Keith Goodman Dstl Programmes Area Joint Studies and Experimentation kgoodman@dstl. gov. uk

The Customer The Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre will: Produce concepts and doctrine – underpinned by thorough research – to help inform decisions in Defence strategy, capability development and operations, both now and into the future. 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

The Concepts • A series of papers that provide a conceptual view on how the armed forces should operate out to 2030 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Concept to Capability Shaping Innovation Developing ideas Articulation and ordering of ideas Research Experimentation Insights and impacts Ideas & Context Concept Development Literature search Academia Industry Mo. D Research Concepts Analysis Experimentation Exploitation Force Structure & Capability Implications Studies ? ? Seminars // Workshops Stage 2 Defence Implications Stage 3 Technology Games Equipmen t Plan Sta ge 4 Stage 1 Stage 5 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Concept Test • Support concept generation and exploitation: – Providing evidence of credibility and feasibility. – Refining key themes of conceptual ideas. – Clarifying conceptual interactions and interdependencies. – Supporting subsequent conceptual innovation. – Providing key insights for exploitation via capability development programmes. Concept Generation Development Learning: Refinement & Validation Capability Development Analysis & Experimentation 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Our aim • To produce a conceptual tool/technique that: – Can include every Concept – Includes linkages between elements – Offers ease of access to evidence – Is easy to use 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

How we do it Written concepts Themes identified • Key statements identified then separated and classified into contextual, descriptive or specified or implied direction • Statements tend towards a number of reoccurring themes Themes clustered • Relationships exist between themes – these can be mapped using social network analysis on strength, orientation etc Filters applied for P&P, S&T, Legal etc Variables assigned • Values or bounds now need to be applied to these inter-related directions 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Model generated is part of the • Direction and bounds combined on a. Dstl given Ministry of Defence thematic basis

Themes identified Key Themes 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Concepts Analytical Model • Uses social network analysis • A single network cluster combines all concepts • Incorporates database: – Associates, context, evidence base, links to DLo. Ds, programmed work etc for every element • Concept, concept theme or bespoke topic can be extracted, at varying levels of resolution allowing the Concepts to feed into (for example) Mo. D planning, wider Mo. D programmes 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

By scoring the strength of relationships … Themes 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 2 1 0 Th e m e 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 3 3 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 1 1 2 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 3 3 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 1 0 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 2 0 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Lots of relationships … 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Individual themes … 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Can be linked 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Concept Test Results Operational Effectiveness Sufficiently Trained Personnel Evolving Databases Virtual Knowledge Databases Dynamic Clear Governance Improved SA Single Inform Community. Coordinated Collection Management Successful Team Working Human skills and culture Security Management Single Inform Infrastructure Forming Reduced Operator Work load Common strategic objectives and policy goals. Mature Network Information owners Networked Co. I/P Timely exploitation of i 2 Civil and military co-ordination Enterprise Wide Collaborative Working Tool Human Linkages Networked Linkages Joint Intelligence Requirement Management Distributed Collaborative Working TTPs good communications Information Access Information Sharing Virtual Co-location 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Variables All members of staff will have access to all parts of the network even at home Networked All members of staff will have access to the network at work but home access will be limited The network will be available at work but there will be no home access 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Concept Test Results Operational Effectiveness Sufficiently Trained Personnel Databases No Go Virtual Knowledge Databases Improved SA Coordinated Collection Management Successful Team Working Human skills and culture Single Inform Infrastructure Forming Reduced Operator Work load Common strategic objectives and policy goals. Mature Network Evolving Dynamic Clear Governance Single Inform Community. Information owners Networked Co. I/P Timely exploitation of i 2 Go Civil and military co-ordination Enterprise Wide Collaborative Working Tool Human Linkages Networked Linkages Joint Intelligence Requirement Management Go Distributed Collaborative Working TTPs good communications Information Access Slow Go Security Management Information Sharing Virtual Co-location 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Summary • We have produced a method of developing concepts • We have begun to use the method to validate concepts • We have generated a model that allows promotion of the concepts to a wider audience 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Acknowledgments • DCDC • Dr Kay Uppington • Dr Gerrard Finbow 16 September 2020 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

End Questions?