From Aquino to Aquino Transitional Challenges and Presidential

From Aquino to Aquino Transitional Challenges and Presidential Leadership in Democratizing Philippines Dr. Julio C. Teehankee De La Salle University Manila, Philippines

The Puzzle? • In a developing democracy like the Philippines, identifying the ineffectiveness of our presidents has become an obsession. • “Pundits are quick to point out what is wrong, but short on explaining what is wrought. ” ►What can Philippine presidents actually do during their term? ►What factors prevents or enables them to provide presidential leadership? ►What is the impact of the presidential transition on the rest of their term?

The Philippine Presidency • the most durable in the Asian region • one of three presidential systems in East Asia (South Korea & Indonesia) • fifteen presidents since the first Philippine Republic was inaugurated in 1899

The Philippine Presidency: American Template Personal Model Richard Neustadt • presidents must persuade • reputation, prestige, perception, & judgement • personal style Regime Model Stephen Skowronek • presidents come to power within regimes (institutional arrangement) • structural pattern of regime change • cycle of presidents within regimes Structured Choice Model Robert Lieberman • opportunities for strategic presidential action within structurally defined & delimited situation • structure & agency, regimes & choice

The Philippine Presidency: Latin American Parallelisms While the Philippine presidency is patterned after the American template, it is rooted in Latin American practices.

The Philippine Presidency: Pangulo Regime “Pangulo Regime” ► supremacy of the executive and puts premium on the value of pagdamay ► metaphor for the body politic ► Aguinaldo, Quezon, Laurel, Marcos ► legitimation for authoritarianism; partyless democracy

The Philippine Presidency: Democratization 1. transitional – teleological process towards democratic consolidation 2. changeless – no real process or progress, same-same 3. cyclical - regime establishment, development, challenge, decay, and new regime

Arguments • Presidential Regimes and Presidential Time • Campaign Narratives and Presidential Narratives • Narrative Cycles in the Post Marcos Philippine Presidency • Making Narratives Stick: The Role of Strategic Players and Coalition-building

Presidential Regimes • a president ascends to power within a particular set of institutions or “regime” that largely shapes the presidential style of leadership. • Regime – “commitments of ideology and interest embodied in pre-existing institutional arrangements. ” • Presidents find themselves facing different obstacles to leadership based on their relation to existing “regimes” • Presidents are either builders, consolidators, articulators, or repudiators

Presidential Time • The recurrence of regime orientations creates a structured context for presidential leadership within a pattern of “political time. ” • Political Time – “medium through which presidents received commitments of ideology and interest and claim authority to intervene in their development. ” • Successive presidents can face dramatically distinct political and institutional challenges.

Presidential Leadership: Configuration & Choice • Presidential actions are determined by historically-articulated institutional configurations. • But these configurations determine context, they do not determine action • Presidents face strategic choices – choices given by institutionally configured situations

Narratives - stories or discourses with a clear sequential order that connect events in a meaningful way. (Hinchman & Hinchman 1997) Political Narratives – narratives (i. e. "populist", "rich -versus-poor" and "reformist", "good governance“) used by politicians in the context of electoral democracy in the Philippines (Thompson 2010) Two Types: Campaign and Presidential Narratives Cycle of Narratives: reformist, developmentalist, and populist

The Philippine Presidency: Within the Prism of Political Time Foundational Regimes 1 st Republic (1899 Definitive Regimes 1901) American Colonial (1898 -1943, 1945 -46) 2 nd Republic (1943 -45) 3 rd Republic (19461972) 4 th Republic (19721986) Prevailing Regime 5 th Republic (1986 present)

Transitional Challenges Under the Post-Marcos Presidency The Great Repudiator - founder of EDSA regime Orthodox Innovator - competent ally Populist Challenger - Marcos revivalist Apostate – born from EDSA, mutated into Marcos The Loyal Son – heir to the EDSA legacy

Role of Strategic Groups 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Business – protectionist vs. global Church – conservative vs. progressive Civil Society – radical vs. moderate Military – professional vs. adventurists Politicians – traditional vs. issue-oriented

Making Narratives Stick Strong Narrative, Stable Coalition Strong Narrative, from Weak to Strong Coalition Strong Narrative - from Strong to Weak Coalition From Strong to Weak Narrative, Stable Coalition Strong Narrative, Weakening Coalition?

Post-Marcos Presidency & the EDSA Regime

Thank you very much!