Newcombs Paradox Selmer Bringsjord Philosophy of Film 12

Newcomb’s Paradox Selmer Bringsjord Philosophy of Film 12. 7. 02

The Situation A highly superior being from another planet of the galaxy presents you with two boxes, A, open, and B, closed. In the open box is a thousand-dollar bill. In the closed box there is either one million dollars – or nothing. You are to choose between taking both boxes, or taking B only. But there’s a catch! The being claims that he’s able to predict what any human being will decide to do. Earlier, he made a prediction about which box you would choose. If he predicted that you would take only the closed box, then he placed $1, 000 in it. But if he predicted you would take both boxes, he left the closed box empty. Furthermore, he has run this experiment with 999 people before, and he has been right every time. What do you? $1, 000 ? Nothing? $1000 A B

The Situation A pre-cog presents you with two options, killing Crow, or not…

The Situation A highly superior being from another planet of the galaxy presents you with two boxes, A, open, and B, closed. In the open box is a thousand-dollar bill. In the closed box there is either one million dollars – or nothing. You are to choose between taking both boxes, or taking B only. But there’s a catch! The being claims that he’s able to predict what any human being will decide to do. Earlier, he made a prediction about which box you would choose. If he predicted that you would take only the closed box, then he placed $1, 000 in it. But if he predicted you would take both boxes, he left the closed box empty. Furthermore, he has run this experiment with 999 people before, and he has been right every time. What do you? $1, 000 ? Nothing? $1000 A B

The Paradox The evidence is pretty obvious that if you choose to take only the closed box you will be $1, 000 richer, whereas if you take both boxes you get only a measly thousand. You’d be stupid to take both boxes! Suppose that thehand, closed boxtime is such that you seethe its closed contents an On the other at the you make your can’t decision, boxbut already experiment can. a. The moderator is watching youtake decide is emptymoderator or else contains million dollars. Either way, if you bothbetween boxes you and get aboth thousand dollars than if you take the closed one boxes, andmore the money is there in front ofbox hisonly! eyes. Wouldn’t he think you an idiot for not taking both boxes? ! $1, 000 ? Nothing? $1000 A B

Proposals • Martin Gardner: take both boxes, logically impossible (but he fails to show logical impossibility) • Robert Nozick: take both boxes (it’s complicated) • William Lane Craig: maps to issue of divine foreknowledge and free will – great paper on W 3 • Selmer Bringsjord (for what it’s worth): take both boxes, scenario is logically impossible, in light of the logical structure of “free will” as set out in What Robots Can & Can’t Be • You? – Explain how Newcomb’s Paradox can be seen in Minority Report – Given cogent proposal for resolving the Paradox