On Model Building Based Hypothesis Generation Selmer Bringsjord

On Model Building. Based Hypothesis Generation Selmer Bringsjord Andy Shilliday, Josh Taylor, Konstantine Arkoudas Department of Cognitive Science Department of Computer Science Rensselaer AI & Reasoning (RAIR) Lab Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) Troy NY 12180 selmer@rpi. edu http: //www. rpi. edu/~brings

IA Process • IA is tasked • IA gathers data • IA builds argument for recommendation/a nalysis/hypothesis. . . • IA submits report Slate: An Intelligent Assistant to Augment the IA Through How? the Entire Analytic Process generates hypotheses builds argument for hypotheses

But Factoring in Tacit Knowledge Changes Everything! But where does this come from? !

Inference-Based Hypothesis Generation some algorithm some inference scheme (some particular form of deduction, analyst knowledge abduction, induction, analogical reasoning, etc. )

A Wonderfully Rich Set of Options -- Even Under Just the “Deductive” Umbrella (yes, stupid) . . .

But there is overwhelming empirical evidence that humans often reason on the basis of mental models expressed pictographically.

Model-Based Hypothesis Generation some algorithm some modeling scheme (see Lindstrom’s Theorem) analyst knowledge

What the Slate Team is Doing in This Area • • Alloy, MACE, SEM, . . . everybody lives in their idiosyncratic world. We have invented a lingua franca (L) for model finding. We are crafting algorithms that will take models expressed in L and output diagrams with which intelligence analysts will be at home. Given this, a Slate user can generate hypotheses, in visual, “mental model” form.

And with DARPA’s help, E. g. Grid-Based Pictures Coming. . . Text