Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Evaluation of CAFE scenarios and outstanding modelling issues

Contents • The final CAFE scenario – – Environmental objectives Results Benefits Macro-economic impacts • Further steps towards the NEC revision – Bilateral consultations – Model improvements – Time table

Environmental objectives of the CAFE scenario

Environmental targets of the EU Thematic Strategy Environmental effect Targeted improvement compared to baseline Costs PM health impacts 30. 8 million life years gained 5. 9 6. 0 bill. mill. €/yr Eutrophication Additional 165. 000 km 2 ecosystems protected 3. 9 bill. mill. €/yr Acidification Additional 52. 000 km 2 ecosystems protected 3. 8 bill mill€/yr Ozone 1300 premature deaths per year avoided 2. 9 bill mill€/yr Joint optimization All targets 7. 1 bill €/yr

Per-capita costs of the Thematic Strategy scenario

Gain in statistical life expectancy for the CAFE scenario (months)

Benefits of the CAFE scenarios Source: CAFE benefit analysis, Holland et al. , 2005

Macro-economic impacts of the CAFE scenarios compared to the baseline 2020 Source: CAFE benefit analysis, Holland et al. , 2005

Environmental improvements of the CAFE scenario Impact indicator in 2000 = 100%

Next steps • Bilateral consultations – with 21 EU Member States, Norway: completed – + Switzerland, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Russia, Ukraine – All available and approved EGTEI results incorporated • NEC baseline scenario: Spring 2006 • Model improvements: Spring 2006 – Updated energy baseline projections (national and PRIMES) – City-Delta 3 for urban increments (improved population data, 2 more cities, improved validation) – Updated critical loads data – Multi-year meteorology – GAINS optimization: synergies with greenhouse gas mitigation • Policy scenarios: Rest of 2006