Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- Slides: 10
Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Evaluation of CAFE scenarios and outstanding modelling issues
Contents • The final CAFE scenario – – Environmental objectives Results Benefits Macro-economic impacts • Further steps towards the NEC revision – Bilateral consultations – Model improvements – Time table
Environmental objectives of the CAFE scenario
Environmental targets of the EU Thematic Strategy Environmental effect Targeted improvement compared to baseline Costs PM health impacts 30. 8 million life years gained 5. 9 6. 0 bill. mill. €/yr Eutrophication Additional 165. 000 km 2 ecosystems protected 3. 9 bill. mill. €/yr Acidification Additional 52. 000 km 2 ecosystems protected 3. 8 bill mill€/yr Ozone 1300 premature deaths per year avoided 2. 9 bill mill€/yr Joint optimization All targets 7. 1 bill €/yr
Per-capita costs of the Thematic Strategy scenario
Gain in statistical life expectancy for the CAFE scenario (months)
Benefits of the CAFE scenarios Source: CAFE benefit analysis, Holland et al. , 2005
Macro-economic impacts of the CAFE scenarios compared to the baseline 2020 Source: CAFE benefit analysis, Holland et al. , 2005
Environmental improvements of the CAFE scenario Impact indicator in 2000 = 100%
Next steps • Bilateral consultations – with 21 EU Member States, Norway: completed – + Switzerland, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Russia, Ukraine – All available and approved EGTEI results incorporated • NEC baseline scenario: Spring 2006 • Model improvements: Spring 2006 – Updated energy baseline projections (national and PRIMES) – City-Delta 3 for urban increments (improved population data, 2 more cities, improved validation) – Updated critical loads data – Multi-year meteorology – GAINS optimization: synergies with greenhouse gas mitigation • Policy scenarios: Rest of 2006
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