AllDigital Networks Friend or Foe Sandy Teger and
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All-Digital Networks: Friend or Foe? Sandy Teger and David Waks Co-Founders, Broadband Home Central They're Just Over the Horizon: Emerging Technologies, Friend or Foe? Broadband. Plus: December 5, 2002 Copyright © 2002
Our Bottom Line • All-digital converged networks will become the norm • Could be “friend” if MSOs adapted HFC – Could carry much more content in much less bandwidth – New converged service opportunities additional revenue – Standards low costs – Positive positioning with emerging public “broadband” policy • Foe if MSOs don’t move in an orderly and timely way – FTTH-based “community networks” may fill the vacuum – Lost MSO customers – Stranded costs • This talk focuses on using a single infrastructure – Doesn’t consider combinations such as DBS/DSL Copyright © 2002 Slide 2
About Us • Dave – Founder and R&D director, Prodigy Services Company • Sandy – 18+ years with AT&T; multimedia strategy director • As System Dynamics – Consulting in broadband to service and technology providers – Technology, marketing and business analysis and planning – Projects have included cable modem rollout, VOD, interactive TV, digital cable, HFC and IP telephony – Industry analysts - website, newsletter • As Broadband Home Central – Industry resource focused on residential broadband – Includes whole ecosystem, both TO and IN the home – Free monthly report goes to 100+ countries – Broadband Home Labs does real world in-home testing – www. Broadband. Home. Central. com Copyright © 2002 Slide 3
“All-Digital Networks” – What Do People Mean? • All services carried in digital formats – Digital data – Digital voice – Digital television • Usually all services carried over IP – Data – Voice over IP – Video over IP – unicast and multicast • Usually all services carried over Ethernet – Gigabit Ethernet – 10 Gigabit Ethernet • Usually all services carried over fiber – Active or passive optical networks Copyright © 2002 Slide 4
Why Build “All-Digital” Networks? • Everything is going digital – Internet applications, of course! – Packaged media: CDs, DVDs – Self-recorded media: MP 3 s, PVRs – Digital cameras and camcorders – IP telephony • Lower cost than mixed analog and digital – Both network and CPE • Analog broadcast TV is coming to an end – Not 2006, but probably this decade • Will analog cable TV also come to an end? Copyright © 2002 Slide 5
Everything Is Going Digital 1992 2002 2012 Audio Players Video Players Still Cameras Camcorders Satellite TV Cable TV ? Broadcast TV Telephone New CE Copyright © 2002 Slide 6
All-Digital Example: Fast. Web In Italy • Fiber to every building – business and residential • Providing both dark fiber and integrated services • Gigabit Ethernet over fiber to Ethernet switch in basement • 100 Mbps over fiber to each apartment • All IP based digital services – High speed Internet at 10 Mbps symmetric – IP telephony: flat rate to all of Italy – IP television: full TV lineup, video on demand – Networked PVR – CD pay per play – TV-based videocommunications service • Rolling out in Milan, Rome, Genoa, Turin, Bologna • More than 100, 000 paying subscribers Copyright © 2002 Slide 7
FTTH “Community Networks” Growing in U. S. • Areas unserved or “underserved” by incumbents – Communities feel scalable broadband infrastructure critical for survival and growth – Incumbents don’t see economic justification for additional investment • Local governments – Revitalize & grow the local economy – Infrastructure needed to attract and retain residents and businesses – FTTH increasingly attractive as costs come down – Funded by long-term bonds – Selling points: Educational opportunities, keep kids in community – Provide customer choice often as wholesale provider • Public power utilities facilitate implementation – See broadband as fundamental as power and water – Leverage existing rights of way and service infrastructure Copyright © 2002 Slide 8
Where Are “Community Networks” Happening? • Unserved areas – Mostly rural, low population density – Low priority for MSOs and telcos – Examples: Grant County and Mason County, Washington • Competitive communities – Mostly high-tech suburbs – Universities and schools – High-tech businesses – Some unserved, others see themselves as “underserved” by incumbents – See “real” broadband as competitive differentiation – Example: Palo Alto trial, many others in development Copyright © 2002 Slide 9
UTOPIA Example • The Utah Telecommunication Open Infrastructure Agency – 17 cities working collectively as ”interlocal” cooperative entity – Total Population: 542, 190 (~25% of Utah) – Can issue bonds and share revenues same as member cities • Project Goals – Increase quality of life more & varied high quality services at competitive prices – Promote economic development – Serve every home and business within member cities – No taxpayer subsidy • Current Status – Planning to implement FTTH to all cities – Finance with “limited obligation” bonds: 15 -20 year cost recovery – “Open Service Provider Network” – wholesale transport services – Will sell access to retail providers of voice, video and data services – Issue bonds and start construction in 2003 Copyright © 2002 Slide 10
Are Community Networks “All-Digital”? • Vendors promoting all-digital FTTH – IP for all video • Community networks may not all start all-digital – Huge overhang of analog TVs and VCRs – Need to provide IP set-top box for each TV and VCR – Some communities choosing FTTH with analog overlay on digital services • Will be all-digital soon – Cost of IP set-top boxes coming down with volume – Centralized set-top could move functionality to one device, including digital-to-analog conversion – Home networking will allow digital video distribution to remote TVs Copyright © 2002 Slide 11
Where’s Cable in Digital? • HFC plant optimized for broadcast analog TV – 6 MHz channelization – “Low-split” configuration highly asymmetric • Supports digital services as incremental “add-on” – Digital video, voice and data all operate in 6 MHz TV channels – MPEG transport optimized for video rather than integrated services – Suboptimal with increasing interactivity • Major innovations for extending cable bandwidth – DOCSIS 2. 0 – Narad Networks, Xtend Networks, Pulse~LINK, … – All assume continuation of current plant structure Copyright © 2002 Slide 12
Threats and Opportunities • What’s the threat? – “It’s only Grant County, Washington” Utah” college towns” suburbs of Chicago and Boston” – Is FTTH today like DBS ten years ago? • What’s the opportunity? – Leverage HFC infrastructure for “all-digital” applications – Leverage technologies not developed directly for cable – Loosen the grip of traditional players – eg, for conditional access – Reduce cost structure in plant and CPE – Innovative new services additional revenue • Questions for MSOs – Can existing HFC infrastructure compete with FTTH? – If so, what changes are required in analog, low-split, MPEG transport? – When to start transition? – Are deployment decisions made today on the right path? Copyright © 2002 Slide 13
Questions? www. broadbandhomecentral. com dave @ bb-home. com sandy @ bb-home. com www. broadbandgurus. com 18 Beaver Ridge Road, Morris Plains, NJ 07950 -1901 (973) 644 -4739 Fax (973) 538 -6003
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