42 Fundamentals wc 151018 Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday

42 Fundamentals w/c 15/10/18 Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Neutral On Mixed Off Friday Events Risk Themes Equities long; JPY strength; GBP strength; assess oil USD Strong Powell, Mueller, trade wars EUR Strong? ? Italian budget concerns JPY Swing GBP Strong CAD Comm AUD Comm NZD Comm Equities Strong Gold Oil Ongoing Brexit uncertainty FOMC Minutes EU write non-compliance letter to Italian gov Draft Brexit agreement “non-starter” - PM May Average Earnings CPI, EU Summit - no meeting scheduled Retail Sales CPI, Retail Sales RBA Minutes - no surprises; CNY CPI CNY GDP CPI QE, Tax bill, earnings: all +ve; Powell GS 3 month forecast USD 1250 (prior USD 1350); 6 months USD 1300 (prior USD 1375) and 12 month USD 1325 (prior USD 1450). Swing Crazy Retail Sales Production cap extension with caveats –ve; efforts to increase supply from OPEC; US/Saudi relations Iran sanctions, GS predicting USD 80/bbl API Inventories -2. 13 m vs exp +2. 2 m EIA Inventories +6. 5 m vs exp +1. 6 m OPEC near-term forecast bearish

43 Fundamentals w/c 22/10/18 Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Off Erratic Off Off Events Risk Themes USD Equities; oil; CAD, AUD and NZD weakness Strong EUR Strong? ? JPY Swing Powell, Mueller, trade wars Italian budget concerns US pulls out of nuclear treaty Italian budget issue continues. Italy receives formal reprimand from EU CAD Comm AUD Comm Hung parliament NZD Comm Holiday Equities Strong Gold Swing Ongoing Brexit uncertainty PM May before 1922 Committee tonight No deal legislative programme to begin in 3 weeks. PM May under pressure on Brexit from own party Strong Crazy Main Refinancing Rate and Press Conference Draghi - “QE extension not discussed” Tokyo Core CPI GBP Oil Advanced GDP Rate Statement No drama QE, Tax bill, earnings: all +ve; Powell Production cap extension with caveats –ve; efforts to increase supply from OPEC; US/Saudi relations Iran sanctions, GS predicting USD 80/bbl API Inventories +9. 88 m vs exp 3. 7 m; Saudi oil min Al-Falih speaks of higher output EIA Inventories 6. 3 m vs exp 3. 6 m Brexit talks on hold due to no agreement within the UK side on goals

44 Fundamentals w/c 29/10/18 Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Risk Off Themes On On Constructive Trump/Xi talks Average Hourly Earnings; Non-Farm Employment Change - 250 K vs exp 194 K Equities - observe; Oil - observe; USD, JPY strength plus EUR, GBP weakness. USD Strong Powell, Mueller, trade wars Core PCE Price Index; Trump predicts “great deal with China”. EUR Strong? ? Italian budget concerns Merkel’s governing coalition suffers heavy losses in Hesse Swing Rate and Statement No change, 7 -2, Core CPI forecast cut, risks skewed to the downside GBP Strong Brexit sec Rabb says deal done by 21 Nov - later rows back; Reports of deal on Financial Services - denied CAD Comm GDP AUD Comm CPI NZD Comm Equities Strong Gold Swing Oil Friday SOMA flows to strengthen USD Events JPY Thursday Crazy Ongoing Brexit uncertainty Autumn Budget Statement Times shadow MPC votes for rate hike on Thursday due to inflationary budget QE, Tax bill, earnings: all +ve; Powell Production cap extension with caveats –ve; efforts to increase supply from OPEC; US/Saudi relations Iran sanctions, GS predicting USD 80/bbl IEA Chief Birol - oil demand down in 2019 due to trade disputes and EM currency weakness API Inventories Analysts at Energy Intelligence say OPEC+ mulling prod cuts after US Nov elections EIA Inventories GS says Brent at USD 80/bbl by year end Manufacturing PMI; Inflation Report; Official Bank Rate; Press Conference - no drama, but impact of budget not considered. Retail Sales

45 Fundamentals w/c 5/11/18 Domestic Sentiment Events Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday On On Neutral Off EST now GMT-5 hrs Risk On Themes Equities; GBP strength; Brent USD Strong Powell, Mueller, trade wars EUR Strong? ? Italian budget concerns JPY Swing GBP Strong CAD Comm AUD Comm NZD Comm Equities Strong Gold Swing Oil Monday Crazy Ongoing Brexit uncertainty Congressional elections Democrats take control of House, Republicans increase majority in Senate Sunday Times say Brexit deal done, Services PMI Fed Funds Rate, Statement Held at 2. 00%-2. 25% and maintained “further gradual increases”. Cabinet Meeting on Brexit on standby for a second mtg this week GDP, Manu Production RBA Cash Rate, Statement Unchanged as per expectation, growth forecast raised slightly Monetary Policy Statement - next move likely to be a rise Inflation Expectations; Cash Rate, Statement - no surprises QE, Tax bill, earnings: all +ve; Powell Production cap extension with caveats –ve; efforts to increase supply from OPEC; US/Saudi relations Iran sanctions, GS predicting Brent at USD 80/bbl by end 2018 US sanctions on Iran begin API Inventories +7. 8 m vs exp +2. 4 m EIA Inventories +5. 8 m vs exp +2. 0 m

46 Fundamentals w/c 12/11/18 Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday CPI; Fed Chair Powell speaks Retail Sales Friday US Veteran’s Day no market closures Events Risk Themes Equities; WTI/Brent; GBP USD Strong Interest rate hiking, Mueller, trade wars EUR Strong? ? Italian budget concerns JPY Swing GBP Strong CAD Comm AUD Comm NZD Comm Equities Strong Gold Swing Oil Crazy Ongoing Brexit uncertainty Holiday ECB President Draghi speaks Flash GDP PM May cancels emergency cab mtg Cabinet Meeting; Average Earnings CPI Retail Sales Wage Prices (Un)Employment Holiday QE, Tax bill, earnings: all +ve Production cap extension with caveats –ve; efforts to increase supply from OPEC; US/Saudi relations, Iran sanctions, GS predicting Brent at USD 80/bbl by end 2018 Saudi to reduce exports by 500 K bpd as of next month; Russia open to cuts if OPEC+ agree API Inventories EIA Inventories