Zbigniew Klimont Willem Asman International Institute for Applied

Zbigniew Klimont, Willem Asman International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Ongoing improvements in the modelling of agricultural emissions

Ongoing improvements 1. Moving towards N-flow model for emission calculations 2. Interactions with nitrogen policies 3. Explicit consideration of impacts of changed productivity (i. e. , milk yields) on emissions of NH 3 and CH 4 4. New activity projections, also for GHGs

1. Process-based emission model • Complete C and N flow included (accounting for complete impacts of measures on NH 3, N 2 O, CH 4) • Following new processes incorporated: – CH 4 emission from manure – N 2 O emission from leaching of soil water – N 2 O emission from application of manure – Nitrate runoff – Nitrate leaching • A number of model parameters defined on sub-national level (NUTS 2, NVZ-nitrate vulnerable zones)

2. Interactions with nitrogen policies • • CAP reform (EEA study + new CAPRI projections) IPPC Directive (new data from EUROSTAT on IPPC farms) Biomass Action plan (new PRIMES + CAPRI scenarios) Nitrate Directive (new emission factors and control measures + model extension) • Water Framework Directive (new emission factors and control measures + model extension) • Further sensitivity analysis of IPPC thresholds and potential extension to cattle

3. Productivity changes: Milk yield vs. NH 3 emission factor per cow

4: New activity projections Comparison of agricultural activity projections CAFE, CAPRI Mid-term review, (EEA study), national projections

4: New activity projections Comparison of agricultural activity projections CAFE, CAPRI Mid-term review, (EEA study), national projections

Projections of agricultural GHG emissions for 2015 relative to 1990, using GAINS emission factors