Your NMHS Logo COUNTRY CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR 202021

Your NMHS Logo COUNTRY CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR 2020/21 RAINFALL SEASON Name Esther Verena Jansen, John Stegling, Lulu Dipao, Lydia Sebera and Alakanani Maphorisa Botswana Department of Meteorological Services Email: ejansen@gov. bw

Outline • Drivers over country’s climate (Optional) • Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • • • OND Model Hit Skills Score OND Model(s) Forecast OND Consensus NDJ Model Hit Skills Score NDJ Model(s) Forecast NDJ Consensus DJF Model Hit Skills Score DJF Model(s) Forecast DJF Consensus JFM Model Hit Skills Score JFM Model(s) Forecast JFM Consensus • Summary of Consensus

Drivers over country’s climate (optional) 1. ENSO 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. ITCZ BOTSWANA SUB TROPICAL HIGH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE INDIAN OCEAN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CELLS MEDIUM LEVEL INSTABILITY TROPICAL CYCLONES

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • October-November-December Models Hit Skill Scores

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • October-November-December Models Hit Skill Scores: PREDICTOR: CFSV 2 PRECIP

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • October-November-December 2020 Models Outlook: CSFV 2 PRECIP

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • October-November-December Models Hit Skill Scores: PREDICTOR; CFSV 2 SSTS:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • October-November-December 2020 Models Outlook: CSFV 2 SSTS:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • October-November-December Models Hit Skill Scores: PREDICTOR; CFSV 2 TEMP 2 M:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • October-November-December 2020 Models Outlook: CSFV 2 TEMP 2 M:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • October-November-December 2020 Consensus Outlook

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • November-December-January Models Hit Skill Scores

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • November-December-January Models Hit Skill Scores: PREDICTOR: CFSV 2 PRECIP

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • November-December-January 2020 Models Outlook: CSFV 2 PRECIP

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • November-December-January Models Hit Skill Scores: PREDICTOR; CFSV 2 SSTS:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • November-December-January 2020 Models Outlook: CSFV 2 SSTS:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • November-December-January Models Hit Skill Scores: PREDICTOR; CFSV 2 TEMP 2 M:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • November-December-January 2020 Models Outlook: CSFV 2 TEMP 2 M:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • November-December-January 2020/21 Consensus Outlook

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • December-January-February Models Hit Skill Scores

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • December-January-February Models Hit Skill Scores: PREDICTOR: CFSV 2 PRECIP

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • December-January-February 2020 Models Outlook: CSFV 2 PRECIP

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • December-January-February 2021 Models Hit Skill Scores: PREDICTOR; CFSV 2 SSTS:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • December-January-February 2021 Models Outlook: CSFV 2 SSTS:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • December-January-February 2021 Models Hit Skill Scores: PREDICTOR; CFSV 2 TEMP 2 M:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • December-January-February 2021 Models Outlook: CSFV 2 TEMP 2 M:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • December-January-February 2020/21 Consensus Outlook

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • January-February-March Models Hit Skill Scores

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • January-February-March 2021 Models Hit Skill Scores: PREDICTOR: CFSV 2 PRECIP

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • January-February-March 2021 Models Outlook: CSFV 2 PRECIP

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • January-February-March 2021 Models Hit Skill Scores: PREDICTOR; CFSV 2 SSTS:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • January-February-March 2021 Models Outlook: CSFV 2 SSTS:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • January-February-March 2021 Models Hit Skill Scores: PREDICTOR; CFSV 2 TEMP 2 M:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • January-February-March 2021 Models Outlook: CSFV 2 TEMP 2 M:

Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • January-February-March 2021 Consensus Outlook

Summary Consensus Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season OND 2020 DJF 2020/21 NDJ 2020/21 JFM 2021

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