WWW PTV DE Validate A Nationwide Dynamic Travel

WWW. PTV. DE Validate - A Nationwide Dynamic Travel Demand Model for Germany Peter Vortisch, Volker Waßmuth, PTV AG, Germany

VALIDATE – A Transport Model for Germany > A nationwide model for Germany (82 million residents) > Hourly volumes on roads > Should use as many public (or commercial) digital data as possible > Should be easy to update > Applications > Regional and nationwide forecasts > Traffic volumes for the set up of billboards > Travel time estimation for navigation systems © PTV AG 2007 2

VALIDATE at a glance > Representing Germany and the surrounding European countries > 1. 4 million links > About 7. 000 traffic zones > 9 trip purposes > 21 person groups > auto and truck traffic > quasi-dynamic assignment (time-of-day volumes) © PTV AG 2007 3

Road Network Processing > Initial German Navteq network consists of ca. 6 million links > Removing minor roads > Generalization: removing two-leg node > Automated, reversible and repeatable process > Mapping of Navteq attributes to assignment relevant attributes > Adding a reduced European network > Finally 1. 4 million links © PTV AG 2007 4

Traffic Zones > ca. 10, 000 residents per zone > 5 to 12 connectors per zone > Finally 7, 000 zones (refinement to 10, 000 ongoing) © PTV AG 2007 5

Land Use Data > National and regional population statistics > 85, 000 market analysis zones > > commercially available Inhabitants Employment by industry Buying power > Additionally > schools, universities > special attractors (fun parks etc. ) © PTV AG 2007 6

Survey data German nationwide travel behavior surveys > Mi. D 2002 (“Mobility in Germany”) > 62, 000 persons > 183, 000 trips > Sr. V (2003) > 34, 000 persons © PTV AG 2007 7

No. of car trips for different purposes > trip generation by the EVA-Model (Prof. Lohse, University of Dresden) > simultaneous destination and mode choice Home - Work 18. 1 million Home - Business 6. 5 million Home - Shopping 12. 0 million Home - Other 20. 5 million Work - Home 13. 1 million Business - Home 8. 9 million Shopping - Home 13. 9 million Other - Home 21. 7 million Other - Other 27. 6 million Total: 142. 2 million © PTV AG 2007 8

Regional distribution of trips No of trips / km² © PTV AG 2007 9

Road Traffic Assignment (24 h, static) RGap = 0. 005 after 12 h computing time © PTV AG 2007 10

Calibration of the model > 2000 permanent counting points from BAST (Federal institute for roads) > additional survey points from different sources > % RMSE = 23% © PTV AG 2007 11

Validation: Mean Trip distances © PTV AG 2007 12

Time-of-Day Trip Demand © PTV AG 2007 13

Time-of-day (quasi-dynamic) assignment > method similar to the Duration based static assignment presented by David Pickworth ADT assignment peak hour (7 a. m. – 8 a. m. ) © PTV AG 2007 14

Result: Time-of-day traffic volumes (video) © PTV AG 2007 15

Validation: Comparision of volume time profiles (video sequence of 100 count locations) © PTV AG 2007 16

Application: Traffic volumes in Germany 2020 ACATECH forecast 2020: > Mileage (private cars) increase decrease + 20 % (+30% on highways) > Mileage (HGV) + 34% (+45% on highways) > Mileage (all vehicles) + 21% (+33% on highways) compared to 2002 © PTV AG 2007 17

Application: Impact Studies Example: Effect of Toll on the A 4 (Eisenach) © PTV AG 2007 18

Application: Accessibility depending on day and time Access Mon 10 a. m. green: < 1: 00 h red: >3: 00 h © PTV AG 2007 19

Validate Network UK 11/2006 Directional Links Zones Connectors 630708 8105 29531 © PTV AG 2007 20

WWW. PTV. DE Thank you for your attention ! Contact infomation: peter. vortisch@ptv. de volker. wassmuth@ptv. de PTV Planung Transport Verkehr AG, 76131 Karlsruhe © PTV AG 2007 21