www mobilevce com 2004 Mobile VCE June 2004
www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE
June 2004 First Korea-UK Future Mobile Symposium The Mobile Industry: Today & Tomorrow Dr Walter Tuttlebee Executive Director, Mobile VCE www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE
Talk Structure Setting the Scene for Today’s Talks n Some history – so you can understand something of how the UK’s role has evolved in this industry n Where we are today – so you can appreciate thinking of UK industry players and government n The future – some personal perspectives, from a position at the heart of global industry R&D, on future evolution and Mobile VCE’s role in this n Later talks will focus on specific technology factors and topics – this will be an overview www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE
Some History: ‘Before 3 G’ GSM n Origins – CEPT 1982 n Targets - 1985 n Competing Technical Proposals in Europe is NOT one country, unlike the USA ! n The UK role – ‘The Honest Broker’ ! www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE n n n n Base Standards – completed 1989/90 Mandated Spectrum & Technology (Europe) UK’s 1800 MHz initiative – ‘Phones on the Move’ Infrastructure Deployed – 1991 Handsets Available – 1992 Success Apparent – 1995 Globalisation – 1998 GSM will still be around for many, many years !
Some History: 3 G 1. 3 G n Origins – ‘RACE Mobile’ 1988 n Targets - 1992 n Early 3 G research was commercialised pre-3 G n GSM 1800, diversity, microcells, etc n Base Standards – 1997/98 n ITU - A “Family” of Standards n Infrastructure Deployed – Japan 2001/2, Europe 2003/4 n (Decent) Handsets Available – 2003/4 n Success Emerging – 2004 ? www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE
Mobile Communications in the UK Today 1. Mobile Users 1. Subscribers: UK – 52 m, Europe – 450 m 2. Penetration: UK - 87%, W Europe - 84%, E Europe 29% Importance of the Industry to the Economy n 2. 3% of UK GDP n 0. 6% of UK Jobs Mobile Operators n 5 network operators including 1 pure-play 3 G (‘ 3’) n MVNOs n Notably BT & Virgin, (upgrading to GPRS & 3 G) n Leading Global Mobile Operators n Vodafone, Orange (both board members of Mobile VCE) www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE
Transition from 2 G to 3 G Europe – poorly managed preparation for 3 G n Late advent of polyphonic phones, colour screens n Mismanagement of user perceptions of WAP, esp UK n Market was ill prepared Benefiting from the Downturn n n Opportunity for the market to catch up Operator rollout of 3 G-type services using 2. 5 G Colour screens, polyphonic phones Cameraphones Portals (Vodafone Live!) Current Initiatives www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE n n Music player Digital TV – DVB-H BT & Vodafone (fixed-mobile) BT & GWR (mobile-broadcast)
3 G Today in Europe Country markets n Pioneer markets 2003 – UK, Italy – 3 n Sweden, Denmark – 3 n Germany, The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden – Vodafone UK 77% Population Coverage n June 2004 >1 m subscribers n Strong growth since Jan 2004 New handsets key to subscriber growth n 10 -20% of net adds in 1 st qtr n Including the LG U 8100 www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE
3 G Today in Europe Pioneer Markets - the UK & Italy - ‘ 3’ n Same problems with initial take-up as Do. Co. Mo’s FOMA in Japan, no decent handsets initially available n Problems exacerbated by need for GSM dual mode n Aggressive voice tariffs, built on lower cost-per-bit n Subscribers by 1 st April 2004: UK 377, 000, Italy 469, 000 Vodafone – pan-European launch spring 2004 n Initial focus on business, data, users – 3 G/GPRS datacard n Targets high value early adopters n Consumer phones – Samsung Z 105, Sony-Ericsson Z 1010 Orange, T-Mobile – European launch later 2004 www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE
Regulation & R&D Regulation – n n n Ofcom – a new regulator Unified regulation of communications & broadcasting >50% digital broadcast penetration Forward looking Light touch approach Spectrum trading R&D n Most global industry players have R&D centres in the UK n Strong Industry-Academic R&D infrastructure n Mobile VCE - long-term, industry-led, research, established 1996, top UK universities – initially as a UK initiative but now global industry members & influence n Focus on long-term industry-led research www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE
Mobile VCE Industry Futures Vision Day – January 2004 Who & What ? n Futures – Europe, US, Asia Views n Mobile VCE companies from around the world – inc Korea n Industry Directions n Technology Implications n Where do our industry members want Mobile VCE’s own future research to focus … ? www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE
www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE
The Future: 4 G or ‘Beyond Generations ? ’ Origins – 1997 n Mobile VCE’s ‘Vision 2010’ n Published in the IEE Electronics & Communications Engineering Journal, December 2000 n WSI, led to the formation of WWRF n WWRF helped focus the agenda for 6 FP Market Shifts n Developing Markets: Volume – China & India n Developed Markets: Compelling Applications Industry Shifts www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE n Closer Look @ Ro. I n Core Markets & New Opportunities n Technology Cost Base
The Future: 4 G or ‘Beyond Generations ? ’ Technology Shifts n n ‘New’ 3 G Air Interfaces – Wi. MAX, Flash-OFDM, etc Short Range – Personal Environments, Passive Services Ubiquitous Networking, RFID Integration, M 2 M Adaptive Radio & Networks Regulatory Shifts n Technology Neutrality n but operators want standards…cf Vodafone @ FTMC n Unlicensed Spectrum n Ultrawideband … ? n Spectrum Trading – 2006 ? Is the industry moving ‘Beyond Generations’ ? www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE n Are we seeing a new kind of evolution emerge ?
The Future: we need an ‘Industry-Efficient’ Evolution Path GSM – Latent Market Demand Approach Driven by Politics n 1992 Single European Act n Mandated European Spectrum & Technology 3 G – A Period of Strong Market Growth Approach Driven by Globalisation n Harmonised Global Spectrum, but … n ‘Family of Standards’ → trend to Technology Neutrality The Future - What are the real Drivers ? What is shaping the Approach ? n Technology still a Key Enabler – but Industry must steer n Content, applications & services will drive new business models – ‘passive’ services, inter-networked applications n Common standards…but how can these fit into a technologyneutral, spectrum-market world ? www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE How to find an industry-efficient evolution path ? Key technologies to enable this, and why ?
This week, and today, we seek to explore such issues together… Session Themes n New & Emerging Wireless Technologies n Higher throughput, lower cost-per-bit n Network Technologies in an All-IP World n Towards IPv 6 and an inter-networked world n Securing Mobile Services n What new approaches are required to security n Content, Services & Applications n New business models n How should these drive technology research ? n Spectrum – the ‘air’ of mobile comms n Regulatory change & challenges www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE
Thank you… For further information please contact: Dr Walter Tuttlebee www. mobilevce. com © 2004 Mobile VCE E-mail: Tel: WWW: walter. tuttlebee@mobilevce. com +44 1256 338604 www. mobilevce. com
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