www bjerknes uib no Observed and projected climate

www. bjerknes. uib. no Observed and projected climate change – from global to local scale Helge Drange helge. drange@gfi. uib. no Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen

CO 2 (parts per million) CO 2 in air (from Mauna Loa, Hawaii) Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

2008 Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

2009 Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

2010 Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

2011 Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

2012 Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

1912 Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Church et al (2011) Change in heat (1022 J) Change in heat content of ocean & land+atm+ice

Earth´s climate is changing Main reason is our use of coal, oil and gas Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

Possible future uncertainty ≠ no certainty Helge Drange Geophysical institute University of Bergen

Change in global temperature, 15 models (relative to 1961 -1990) Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

Change in global temperature, 15 models (relative to 1961 -1990) +2 °C 2025 -2050 In 2100: Global: 4. 0 -5. 8 °C Land: 5. 0 -8. 5 °C Future emissions as today (“Business-as-usual”) Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

Change in global temperature, 15 models (relative to 1961 -1990) +2 °C 2035 -2075 In 2100: Global: 2. 0 -3. 0 °C Land: 2. 1 -4. 8 °C For a global, mean warming of ~2 °C, which we can expect sometime during second half of the 21 st century, climate comparable to Global emission. Earth's top in 2040, 650 is ppm CO 2 -eq in 2100 the climate ~3. 2 mill years ago Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

Drought index based on 14 climate models (2090 -2099; RCP 4. 5) Severe to extreme drought Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Incr soil moisture Dai, Nature Clim. Change (2012)

Over to local scale (where we all live) Much harder to do local than continental/global climate projections! Harder to make projections of precipitation than temperature Very hard to make projections about local changes in extremes Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

Western Norway, 14 September 2005

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

14 Sep 2005 Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen For Bergen: +30 to +70 % increase in extreme precipitation by the end of the century

Photo: Jan M. Lillebø, Bergens Tidende Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Sea level

Total: Warming of the ocean +40 to +80 cm in 2100 May contribute 15 -20 cm in this century Cont’d increase “forever” Glaciers melting May contribute 15 -20 cm in this century Greenland Antarctica May contribute 10 -40 cm in this century (large uncertainties) Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

Estimated sea level rise (cm) along the coast of Norway, next 100 years (corresponding to a global sea level rise of 50 -110 cm) About 1/3 of this rise by 2050 Department of Geophysics University of Bergen Drange m. fl. (2012)

Sea level Will last for > 1000 yr Department of Geophysics University of Bergen

2 -degree target Department of Geophysics University of Bergen

2 -degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) (i) CO 2 -emissions from coal, oil and gas, 1950 -2012 Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated

2 -degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions (ii) Reduced CO 2 -emissions from 2013 Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) 2013: − 7 % / yr Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated

2 -degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions (iii) Reduced CO 2 -emissions from 2017 Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) 2013: − 7 % / yr 2017: − 11 % / yr Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated

2 -degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions (iv) Reduced CO 2 -emissions from 2021 Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) 2013: − 7 % / yr 2017: − 11 % / yr 2021: − 22 % / yr Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated

2 -degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) (v) Reduced CO 2 -emissions from 2025 ? Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2013: − 7 % / yr 2017: − 11 % / yr 2021: − 22 % / yr 2025: − 90 % / yr Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated

About 20 percent of today's CO 2 -emissions will remain in the atmosphere for 1000 years or more Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

Slides and animations available from helge. drange@gfi. uib. no Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Earthrise, 24 Dec 1968 (credit: NASA)