Write in AGENDA Bellwork due Friday Billy makes

Write in AGENDA: Bellwork due Friday Billy makes and Bellwork: Monday sells comic books. The comics costs $2 to make, and he sells them at a markup of 150%. Billy wants to get rid of his stock of comic books so he discounts the price by 30%. What is the sale price of the comic books?

Probability Models 7. SP. 7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. 7. SP. 7 a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events 7. SP. 7 b. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.

Definitions • Sample Space: set of all possible outcomes in an experiment • Theoretical Probability: what you would EXPECT to happen in an experiment • Experimental probability: the results of what ACTUALLY happened in the experiment • Uniform Models: when each outcome is equally likely • Non-Uniform Models: when each outcome is NOT equally likely

Uniform Models • Uniform Models: when each outcome is equally likely. • Which spinners have a uniform model?

Non-Uniform Models • Non-Uniform Models: when each outcome is NOT equally likely. • Which spinners have a non-uniform model?

Questions

Example: 1. What is the sample space? 2. Is this a uniform model or nonuniform model? Explain.

Why are the outcomes NOT equally likely

Example: Using a MODEL for Experimental Probability

Practice: 1. What is the sample space? 2. Is this a uniform model or nonuniform model? Explain.

Bellwork: Tuesday Sally went shopping and bought a shirt for $20. The sales tax is 8. 5% written using the expression 1. 085 x. What could the expression mean? A. She paid $1. 08 in sales tax. B. She paid $1. 09 in sales tax. C. She paid 108. 5% of the cost of the shirt. D. She paid $1 in sales tax which is 8. 5%.

Probability Models. Activity 7. SP. 7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. 7. SP. 7 a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events 7. SP. 7 b. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.

Stations • You will work with groups of 4 to rotate station cards. • Once we rotate, the answer to your last problem will be on the next card. • Check your last answer before starting new problem.

Bellwork: Wednesday Payless is having a shoe sale. If you purchase one pair of shoes at full price, you can purchase a second pair at half price, and a third pair for 75% off the original price. Which expression shows the cost of buying three pairs of shoes if the original price of each pair is p? A. 1. 75 p C. 0. 75 p B. 2. 25 p D. 1. 25 p

Compound Event 7. SP. 8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. 7. SP. 8 a. Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs. 7. SP. 8 b. Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e. g. , “rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event. 7. SP. 8 c. Design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events.

Definitions • Compound Events: more than 1 event • Tree Diagram: A way to SHOW possible outcomes and sample space (like a table or chart)

Example:

Example: TREE DIAGRAM TABLE

Tree Diagram What is the sample space? How many outcomes are possible? How many possibilities are there of rolling the same number on both number cubes?

Table What is the sample space? How many outcomes are possible? How many possibilities are there of rolling two even numbers?

Example 1:

Example 2:

More than 2 events:

EXIT TICKET on your own…

Bellwork: Thursday Bill used 55% of his savings account buying a new bike. He has $200 left. Show much money did Bill spend on his bike?

Compound Event- Independent Practice 7. SP. 8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. 7. SP. 8 a. Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs. 7. SP. 8 b. Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e. g. , “rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event. 7. SP. 8 c. Design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events.

Working on your own… • Complete the worksheet to practice probability with compound events. • Due Friday • For a GRADE

Bellwork: Friday Andy makes $50 in tips on Monday as a waiter. On Tuesday, his tips increased by 10% of what he made on Monday. On Wednesday, his tips decreased by 15% of his tip amount from Tuesday. What is the total amount of money Andy made from Monday-Wednesday in tips?

Review Game. Grudgeball 7. SP. 5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. 7. SP. 6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long‐run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. 7. SP. 7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. 7. SP. 8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation.

Grudgeball!! • We will be in 5 or 6 teams • Each team gets 10 "X's” • Each group gets a question. If they get it right they automatically get to erase two X's from the board. They can take it from one team or split it. They can not commit suicide (take X's from themselves). • If correct, you will get to increase your “X’s” by shooting the ball. • If you make it, you get to take 2 extra X’s • If your team has no “X’s” left, you can earn back “X’s” by getting a question correct and making the shot! • Team with the most points at the end wins candy!!!