World Airshow AccidentIncident Overview 2012 Looking Back to
World Airshow Accident/Incident Overview 2012 “Looking Back to Look Forward” “A realistic, clear-eyed look at risk management for display flying is a sobering exercise. Emotionally, we all LOVE absolute extreme edge of the envelope flying. . right up until the revulsion of impact. Airshow accident statistics are all that remain!” (Maj Gen Scott Hammond, US ANG) Des Barker 4 February 2013
Scope § Role & Function of Airshow Executive Safety Management § Display Physiological Environment § A Statistical Analysis - “The Inconvenient Truth” § Overview of Airshow Relate Accidents 2012! Chicago Air Show 21 August 2005
WHAT IS THE ROLE AND FUNCTION OF AIRSHOW CONTROLLING BODIES? Accountable For ? Airshow Safety Responsible For ? • Visioning – setting safety objectives. • Imposition and implementation of regulations through the specific country’s regulatory authorities. • Instilling “SAFETY IS AN ATTITUDE” across the entire airshow population spectrum. • Fostering of good relations with airshow organisations.
EXECUTIVE SAFETY MANAGEMENT’S RESPONSIBILITY To ensure that the implementation of policies, procedures and equipment utilisation, is adequately addressed and that personnel are trained within their areas of expertise. • Develop and Manage Airshow Safety Strategic Objectives. • Develop and Manage an Airshow Safety Management System. • Compliance with Military and Chicago Convention Obligations. • Monitor regulatory compliance through ICAS/EAC/ASSA appointed officers. • Practice safety oversight and regulation enforcement through regulatory bodies. • Ensure Zero Tolerance of poor individual and/or Corporate performance. French Connection Mudry CAP 10 27 May 2000
The Hostile Low Level Environment § God did not design man to fly! § 2 – Dimensional Creatures! § Human Physiology Challenges – – Closing Rates 1500 kms/hr Extremely High Rates of Descent 300 KTAS vertical Normal Acceleration +9 g/-6 g Roll Rates >360 deg/sec § Human Physiology Weaknesses – – – Relatively Low reaction times Inability to make quick, consistent and repeatable decisions Inability to make good decisions repeatedly under pressure
AIM To review the worldwide airshow accident and incident safety statistics for 2012.
Definition of Airshow Accidents Longman Family Dictionary in the context of airshows – “exhibition” = “a public showing” and therefore makes all public aviation events, be they static or flying, an exhibition of some sort. In context, this includes rehearsals for: § Airshows § Air races § Flypasts § Wingwalkers § Barnstorming/Crazy Flying
Significant Indicators 2012 § Good News: – For the first time in history? ? No spectators injured or killed. – No media ‘feeding frenzy’ – 2011 Reno/Duxford/Red Arrows – 17 vs 105 killed/injured in 2011. § Bad News: – MACHINE failures continue for 2 nd year - disproportionate number of vintage aircraft mechanical failures! – 3 FIT Roll accidents. – Red Arrows pilot reassigned’. – Significant increase in airshow accidents vs display practice. – Budget constraints for military display teams.
Structural Failure Flight Into Terrain There are no new accidents – Just new pilots making old accidents (Hoover)! Mechanical Failure Air Races
Statistical Analysis! Lies! Damned Lies! Statistics!!! Benjamin Disraeli -Charles Wentworth Dilke (1843 -1911).
The Inconvenient Truth! “A Few Good Men". with Tom Cruise, Demi Moore, Jack Nicholson, Kiefer Sutherland, Kevin Bacon. (1991) Nicholson: "You want answers? !!" Cruise: "I want the truth!!" Nicholson: "You can't HANDLE the truth!!"
Statistical Analysis 2012 Airshow Accidents/Incidents 2003 to 2012 40 35 10 Year Average = 27. 6 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 yyyy yyyy Airshow Accidents 10 Previous Years yyyy Sample Size = 276
Statistical Analysis 2012 180 Lviv, Ukraine; Su-27 (85/156) 160 140 120 100 80 *Reno Air Race P-51 (11/66) *Osprey (10) *Tiger Moth (39) 60 40 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Killed Injured
ts In j Ki lle d C re w In Pa j x Ki lle d Pa x W In in j g Pa W al ra s W ker in Ki g lle W Sp d ec alke ta to r In j r Sp s K ec ille d ta to Pu rs In bl j ic Ki l Pu led bl St ic In af f. K j ille St d af f. I nj U nk no w n re w C d lle Ki Pi lo s lo t Pi Fatalities (1908 to 2012) 1029 vs 1429 = 2458 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Sample Size = 2458
Statistical Analysis 2012 Pax Injured; 1 Pax Killed; 1 Pilots Injured; 2 Pilots Killed; 13 Airshow Accident Casualties 2012 = 17
Statistical Analysis 2012 Vintage Aircraft = 51% Sample Size = 28 Airshow Accident/Incidents Aircraft Categories
Statistical Analysis 2012 Ground Collision 4% Environme ntal 4% Parachute 3% Unknown 8% Birdstrike 8% Mechanical 38% Midair Collision 8% Birdstrike Unknown 3% 3% Midair Collision 6% Ground Collision 6% Mechanical 28% Pilot Error 9% FIT 15% Structural 9% Loss of Control 15% 2012 Sample Size = 26 FIT 15% Loss of Control 18% 2011 Sample Size = 34 Airshow Accident/incident Causal Factors
Statistical Analysis 2012 Judgement Error = 42% Non Human Error = 50% 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Loss of Control FIT Midair Collision Ground Collision Mechanical Birdstrike Environmental Airshow Accident/incident Analysis Human Judgement Error Sample Size = 26 Unknown
Statistical Analysis 2012 Sample Size = 26 Sample Size = 34 3%3% Flypast Rehearsal 4% Air Race Flypast Rehearsal 4% 4% 21% Airshows Display Practice 23% Display Practice Air Race Airshows 65% 2012 Flypast Rehearsal 73% 2011 We do not “train like we fly and fly like we train!!!! Airshow Accident/incident Analysis Display vs Practice
4 3 2 0 S ng A do C m an ad Fr a an c R e us si a C hi le C hi n G er a m a M ny al ay si Po a So l ut and h Af Sr rica i. L an ka 5 U 6 Ki 7 d 8 te 9 Accidents/Incidents 10 ni U U K an ad a Tu r Ve key ne zu el a Fr an ce G er m an In do y So nes ia ut h Af ric a R om So an ia ut h Ko re a Ta iw an C SA U Accidents/Incidents Statistical Analysis 2012 16 Sample Size = 12 2011 14 12 Sample Size = 12 10 8 6 4 2 1 0 Comparative Airshow Accident/incident Analysis - Countries
Statistical Analysis 2012 24% Military 31% Military Civilian 69% 76% 2012 2011 Comparative Airshow Accident/incident Analysis – Military vs Civilian
Accident Data Base 2012 Ser Date Aircraft Type Category Accident Category Fatalities Eject 1 03 Feb 2012 AIDC AT-3 Trainer Jet Midair Collision(? ) 0 2 Yes 2 13 Mar 2012 Canadair NF-5 Tiger Turkish Stars 23 Mar 2012 Aerovodochody L 39 C Albatros Black Diamond 30 Apr 2012 Zlin 226 Fighter Jet FIT? (Unknown) 1 Pilot No Vintage Trainer Wheelsup Jet Landing? ? ? 0 Vintage Trainer Propeller Trainer. Jet 3 4 5 6 Canadair CT-114 Tutor Snowbirds 03 Jun 2012 Fairey Firefly 7 15 Jun 2012 Christen Eagle 8 18 Jun 2012 Hot Air Balloon 9 29 Jun 2012 Aerovodochody L 39 Albatros 01 Jul 2012 De Havilland DH-53 Hummingbird 10 Jul 2012 Rockwell OV-10 Bronco 22 Jul 2012 Fokker DR. 1 Replica 26 Jul 2012 American Champion Super Decathlon 10 11 12 13 16 May 2012 Event Location Display Practice Pingtun, Taiwan N/A Airshow Florida, USA 1 Pilot N/A Airshow Erfurt, Germany 0 N/A Airshow Moosejaw, Canada Vintage Fighter Mechanical Propeller (Undercarriage) Sport Aero Rolls Aileron(Engine) Balloon Environmental (Wind) Vintage Trainer LOC(Loo) Jet 0 N/A Airshow 1 Pilot Inj N/A Airshow 1 Pax Inj N/A Airshow 1 Pilot N/A Airshow California, USA Idaho, USA Nebraska, USA Klerksdorp, South Africa Vintage Light Utility Vintage Fighter Propeller Sport Aero 1 Pilot N/A Airshow 1 Pilot Inj No 1 Pilot N/A Display Practice Airshow 0 N/A Airshow LOC (Unknown) Birdstrike LOC (Engine Fail)? ? FIT (Split S) LOC (Unknown) Mechanical (Seat) Anatolia, Turkey Old Warden, UK Gloustershire UK Charente, France Wisconsin, USA
Accident Data Base 2012 Ser Date Aircraft Type Category Accident Category Fatalities Eject Event Location 14 04 Aug 2012 Interstate S-1/L-6 Scout Vintage Trainer Propeller Mechanical (Engine) 0 N/A Airshow Alberta, Canada 15 12 Aug 2012 Jet Sailplane Glider Ground Collision (Vehicle) 0 N/A Airshow Wisconsin, USA 16 23 Aug 2012 IAR 99 Hawk 718 Trainer. Jet FIT (Unknown) 1 Pilot Inj 1 Yes Display Practice Craiova, Romania 17 01 Sep 2012 Aerovodochody L-39 C Vintage Trainer Albatross Jet FIT (Crossover Break) 1 Pilot N/A Airshow Iowa, USA 18 07 Sep 2012 Goodyear F 2 G Super Vintage Fighter Corsair Propeller FIT (Barrel Roll) 1 Pilot N/A Display Practice North Dakota USA 19 08 Sep 2012 De Havilland DH-89 Dragon Rapide Vintage Transport Propeller Mechanical (Engine Fire Start Up) 0 N/A Airshow Duxford, USA 20 09 Sep 2012 BAe Hawk T. Mk 1 Red Arrows Trainer Jet Birdstrike 0 N/A Airshow Portrush, UK 21 11 Sep 2012 Hawker Sea Fury FB. 11 Vintage Fighter Propeller Mechanical (Undercarriage) 0 N/A Airshow Nevada, USA 22 16 Sep 2012 Yakolev 52 Vintage Trainer Propeller FIT (Barrel Roll) 1 Pilot 1 Pax N/A Airshow Alabama, USA 23 29 Sep 2012 Sia Marchetti AS 202 Bravo Light Utility Propeller LOC (Unknown) 2 Pilot N/A Airshow Bandung, Indonesia 24 15 Nov 2012 KAI TA-50 B Black Eagles Trainer Jet Mechanical (Human error ) Flight Control System 1 Pilot No Display Practice Seoul, South Korea 25 22 Nov 2012 Rockwell OV-10 Bronco Vintage Fighter Propeller Midair Collision (? ) 1 Pilot 1 No 2 Yes Flypast Practice Caracas, Venezuela 26 27 Nov 2012 Hongdu K-8 Karakorum Trainer Jet Mechanical (Unknown) 0 2 Yes Flypast Caracas, Venezuela
The Law of Machines “But remember please, the law by which we live, We are not built to comprehend a lie, We can neither love, nor pity, nor forgive, If you make a slip in handling us, you die” Rudyard Kipling “Secret of the Machines”
Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage Fairey Firefly California, USA 03 June 2012
Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage
Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage
Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage
Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage
Mechanical Failure - Engine De Havilland DH-53 Hummingbird, Duxford, UK 1 July 2012
Mechanical Failure - Engine Interstate S-1/L-6 Scout, Edmonton, Canada 4 August 2012
Mechanical: Human Error Korean Aircraft Industries T-T 50 B Oshkosh, USA 28 July 2011
Mechanical Failure: Engine? Hongdu K-8 W Karakorum Caracas, Venezuela 27 November 2012
LOC? IAR 99 Hawk 718 Craiova, Romania 23 August 2012
Flight Into Terrain – Barrel Roll Goodyear F 2 G Super Corsair, North Dakota, USA 7 September 2012
Flight Into Terrain Barrel Roll Yak 52 Alabama, USA 16 September 2012
Flight Into Terrain Snap Rolls Zlin 226 Germany, 30 April 2012
Flight Into Terrain – Split S 0 V-10 Bronco, Cotswold, UK 10 July 2012
Flight Into Terrain(G-LOC)? ‘Crossover Break’ Aerovodochody L-39 Albatros Iowa, USA 1 September 2012
Loss of Control Snap Rolls SIAI Marchetti AS 202 Bravo Bandung, Indonesia 20 August 2011
2012 EXECUTIVE SAFETY MANAGEMENT SCORECARD • 26 Airshow Accidents & Incidents • 28 Aircraft • 13 Pilots Killed FAIL!!! • 2 Pilots Injured • 1 Pax Killed • 1 Pax Injured • TOTAL = 17 vs 105 killed/injured!!!
Questions that need Answers! • What is it that we want from an airshow! • Do we need to regulate more strictly? • Where does one draw the line between regulation and an individual’s choice? • Are Safety Officers exercising sufficiently strict oversight! • Is our attitude one of total dedication to safety above personal ego and spectator’s adrenalin rush? • The pressures of weather versus spectator entertainment? • Minimum distance of spectator enclosure from showline? • Is ICAS, EAC and ASSA making determined and effective efforts to change the culture of the airshow population group? • Are Airshow Councils providing the necessary safety strategies? • Is adequate Risk Management applied to air event organisation?
“I have learned that carelessness and overconfidence are usually far more dangerous than deliberately accepted risks. ” (Wilbur Wright 1900 in a letter to his father) Thank You! Frecce Tricolori USAF Ramstein 1988
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