Workshop Wrap up Workshop Identifying Tropical Cyclone Research
- Slides: 8
Workshop Wrap -up Workshop: Identifying Tropical Cyclone Research Needs, Progress and Gaps OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR
Summary • Snapshot analysis of all agency research efforts mapped against research needs and operational priorities – Fairly even distribution of TC research investment among agencies cover most operational priorities – Intensity/structure change #1, but very difficult – Captures >90% research in 75 IHC abstracts – Work in progress OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 2
Combined Man-Years & $ Included in Study Total Man-Years: 228 Total $ With Facilities: $50. 2 M Without Facilities: 37. 7 M OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 3
Summary • Areas of Concern / Gaps – Little emphasis on forecaster aids (guidance on guidance) • Not just an applied research problem • Needs greater emphasis in basic as well as applied • Include math / probability community – Little emphasis on resolution vs. ensemble model output* * First HFIP issue OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 4
Combined Man-Years Mapped to JTWC Priorities TC Research Roughly Aligned with Operational Priorities Intensity & Structure: ~ 35% O G St Q W Fc St In Si M Tr bs en PF od in ze at or ac st Ch ten E d e e n m / e k A S E s rv si an it An se l R id tru Fc ffi Su s at m e s ge y ci al s ct io rg bl s v t en y ur ns si e es s cy e s OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research Ra d ar /S SS T at G Se a so . D na ra at a di en ts WG/TCR l. P ro gs 5
Summary • Areas of Concern / Gaps (continued) – Continue global model improvement (NUOPC) – Major Concern / Gap • Lack of inclusion of social science and associated decision-making issues related to TC research OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 6
Summary • Next steps of WG/TCR – Develop set of interagency strategic objectives driven by requirements (intensity/structure, track, RI, genesis) – Relate research efforts toward achieving strategic objectives – Document continued work of WG/TCR – Formalize executive oversight – Address major concern to address social science and decision-making issues OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 7
Summary • Recommended action to address major concern – Form a new OFCM-sponsored Joint Action Group under the WG/TCR • Focus and build upon key areas in Section 5. 3, Appendix P, and recommendation 2. a. 2 of 2007 TC R&D Plan, “Social Science Research” – Decision-making – Warning process – Behavioral response – Societal impacts • Activity should address the societal / public safety aspects and build upon major concerns / needs such as: – Risk mitigation – Decision support OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 8
