WORKSHOP ON DELIBERATIVE DEMOCRACY PUBLIC CONSULTATION AND THE

WORKSHOP ON DELIBERATIVE DEMOCRACY, PUBLIC CONSULTATION, AND THE MEDIA 10 July 2011 The Politics of Collating Public Opinion: Two Cases of Misrepresentation of Public Opinion in Hong Kong Robert CHUNG The University of Hong Kong

Historical Setting of the 1988 Incident l l l 1982: Talks on the future of Hong Kong. 1984: Major review of HK’s constitutional development; Sino-British Joint Declaration signed. 1987: Another review of constitutional reform – the question of 1988 direct elections. Green Paper, White Paper, direction elections deferred to 1991. Hong Kong government faked opinion data in support of the delay. 1988 – 1991 – 1995 – 1997 – 2002 …

Historical Setting of the 2003 Incident l l l 2002 July: HKSAR Chief Executive entered 2 nd term of office. 2002 Sep: Proposals to Implement Article 23 of the Basic Law. 2003 Jan: Compendium of Submissions. HKSAR Government faked opinion data again. 2003 Feb: National Security Bill. 2003 July 1: 500, 000 people took to the street. 2003 July 5: Government insisted on legislation on July 9. 2003 July 6: One key cabinet member resigned. 2003 July 7: Government postponed legislation. 2003 July 16: Key officials resigned. 2003 Sep 5: Government withdrew the Bill from the legislative programme.

Strategy of British HK Government (1988) l 131, 589 submissions grouped into 3 categories: – Submissions from organizations and individuals – Opinion surveys – Petitions Cat 1: pre-printed forms (73, 767) lumped with individual submissions, boosting opposition rate l Cat 2: Two biased opinion polls conducted by a marketing firm, to prove marginal public opposition l Cat 3: Petitions considered not rational (21 petitions – 23, 866 supporters vs 295 opponents) l Result: 3 -0 “support” became a 1 -2 marginal “opposition” l

Strategy of HKSAR Government (2003) 100, 909 submissions made by 369, 612 individuals and over 1, 000 organizations l Categorization by type: l – Submissions from organizations – Submissions from individuals – Submissions in the form of standard letters and pre-printed opinion forms – Signature forms Categorization by inclination, government conclusion: 67. 5% support, 28. 2% opposed, 4. 3% unclear l BUT if we count names/signatures (embedded in all submissions), conclusion should be 36. 9% support, 60. 2% opposed, 2. 8% unclear l

Conclusion Democracy is the rule of the people by the people, but Hong Kong has never been a democracy, before or after 1997. l Undemocratic governments needs the backing of public opinion to justify its legitimacy, so they are always tempted to fake opinion research findings. l Thus a strong need for professional standards in conducting surveys and running public consultations. l