Workforce Updates and Foresight Questions Christopher M Keane

Workforce Updates and Foresight Questions Christopher M. Keane American Geosciences Institute 8 December 2019

Geoscience Student Enrollment 1956 -2018 United States Colleges and Universities 40 000 Undergraduate Graduate 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 2016 2012 2008 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984 1980 1976 1972 1968 1964 1960 1956 0

U. S. Geoscience Degrees Awarded 1973 -2018 8 000 Bachelor's Master's Doctorate 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 2017 2015 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 0

First Employment of BS Recipients, 2013 -2017

First Employment of MS Recipients, 2013 -2017

First Employment of Ph. D Recipients, 2013 -2017

G At m G ci. eo sc eo os sc En ien tis i. . , gi N Ea n at ee ts, A rth ur rin ll al , M Min g i ng Pe Sc ar M i gr in e t a nc e, nd rol s e Sp um e M G eo ac En grs lo e gi Sc ca gine i. e Po l E ng rs s C En on tse in vi c s. T eer er ro E va nm nv ea s t c io en iro nm n S her ta s l. S ci en e ci nt. P tal is E os ng ts ts ec ine er. T s e G a G eo eo che gr rs sc ap i e hy n H G yd tist eo Po s ro st sc G l s og eo ie nc ec. i lo Te sts gi e ca C ac iv la i l E he nd ng rs Pe tro Ge inee At rs So leu ogr m a os m i ph l An Te phe er rs d ch En ic Pl n vi ic an an ro ia t d nm En Sp Sc ns ie e vi nt ro ace En nta n l Sc ists vi m E ro n ie nm gin ent n a l S tist en ee s ri ci ta en l S ng T t ci en ech ists ce n Te icia ch ns ni ci an s eo s G Change in Employment Projected Geoscience Workforce Changes by Occupation 8, 9% 9, 2% 8, 2% 2018 -2028 7, 8% 8, 0% 6, 2% 5, 3% 3, 4% 3, 7% 6, 3% 5, 8% 6, 0% Source: AGI Geoscience Workforce Program; Data derived from the U. S. BLS Employment Projections 6, 7% 3, 8% 2, 4% -0, 6%

Source: AGI Geoscience Workforce Program; Data derived from the U. S. BLS Employment Projections Oil & Gas Extraction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Mining Information Utilities Federal Government 8, 9% 6, 8% 6, 4% 6, 2% 5, 5% 5, 2% State Government Educational Svcs Local Government Waste Mgmnt & Remediation Svcs Mgmnt of Companies & Enterprises Self-Employed Workers 11, 7%11, 4% Transportation & Warehousing Construction Prof. , Sci. , and Technical Svcs Support Activities for Mining Finance & Insurance Change in Employment 37, 3% Projected Geoscience Workforce Changes by Industry 2018 -2028 20, 0% 0, 9% -0, 1% -0, 5% -1, 7% -2, 9% -5, 7% -9, 4%

Employer Feedback and Observations

Employer Quote of the Year From the Graduate Geoscience Ed Employers Summit The graduate programs are producing outstanding scientists – best scientists we’ve seen, but the problem is they do not know how to do anything.

General Comments on Hiring Environment • Petroleum • Slow, but highly skilled, especially MS, are in demand • Minerals • Steady opportunities because of low supply, but focus on high skilled graduates, even at BS level • Environmental • Hiring on field skills and willingness and technology skills • Government • Skilled technicians and skilled graduate at the social/science interface

Why Skills? • Basic knowledge worker is being automated out of existence • Banking and Investment sector is a prime example • Assumption that information is a google search away • Most people are NOT knowledge creators • Nature of human/tech interface • Creators • Users • Passive Consumers

Macro Issues Facing Geoscience Departments

The “Enrollment Cliff” • Expected sharp drop (~20%) in undergraduate enrollments by 2023. • University of Tulsa one of the first to react • Liberal arts colleges launching more “applied” programs • Increased questioning of the value of the bachelor’s degree • Recent ASA WIP article on negative return for men on more rigorous undergraduate education • Same article showing difference is at the master’s level for earnings and challenge • Recent studies showing college education earns the same as skilled labor with high school diploma

College Scorecard Gets Detailed • U. S. Department of Education announced on 20 Nov 2019: • College Scorecard has been updated with new data/metrics • Graduation rate in 8 years • Earnings 1 year from graduation • They are rolling out the ability to examine data by school & major: • Graduation rate • Average geoscience earnings after graduation • Mean = $35, 184; Max = $67, 400; Min = $21, 900 • Average geoscience debt load • Mean = $23, 531; Max = $37, 742; Min = $13, 298

Who is your competition? • Have you evaluated who you are competing with for majors? • • With other departments on campus? With geo programs at other local schools With geo programs at ‘peer’ institutions What about other fields at other schools? ? • Is your program part of your school’s recruitment program? • Case example of Towson and Mc. Daniel College

For more information https: //www. americangeosciences. org/workforce@americangeosciences. org