Workforce Alignment System Standard Occupational Classification SOC System

Workforce Alignment System Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) System Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) Count of Occupational Job Openings Per Year Count of Graduates Per Year From Growth And Net Replacement By Major And Degree Level Converts CIP Annual Units (Graduates) Into SOC Annual Units (Openings) And Vice versa

What are we trying to do? • An important question – are we producing graduates from the right fields of study and in the right numbers relative to the employment opportunities available to new graduates? • Separations estimates are not designed to answer this question – “BLS projections of occupational openings are not direct estimates of training needs for an occupation, as not all of the workers who will fill openings require training”, specifically those transferring in from another occupation. • The notion of Career Ladders emphasizes the benefits of occupational transfers of incumbent workers – we should account for this • This is not meant to replace BLS Replacements – this attempts to answer a different question than BLS answers

Workforce Alignment versus BLS Separations Occupation X 2 Unemployed or Out of the Labor Force WA Net Replacements = Outflow from Occupation – Inflow into Occupation Z 1 Occupation X 1 (Different MOG) Occupation Y Unemployed or Out of the Labor Force, Including Those in School Occupation Z 2 (Same MOG) BLS Projections Separations estimate flows in RED, we want to estimate all flows

Real Example Using Database Administrators Occupation X 2 Unemployed or Out of the Labor Force BLS Separations Method Yields 53 Exits and 104 Transfers = 157 Openings + 46 Growth Openings =203 Total Openings 49 Occupation Z 1 Occupation X 1 445 “Stayers” = 2, 090 (Different MOG) 101 Are these Opportunities for New Grads? DBAs – 15 -1411 We find 49 exits and 463 Transfers (and the same 46 in Growth) but 445 Transfers In taking all but 113 openings Growth = 46 113 Unemployed or Out of the Labor Force, Including Those in School 362 Occupation Z 2 (Same MOG) These are the openings available to new grads AFTER incumbent workers fill most jobs

Process for Generating Occupational Transition Matrix •

This is what that looks like – We can provide Side Project – use this matrix to identify significant and persistent “career ladder” transitions

Notice Block Diagonal nature of this matrix Most transitions (77% in MN) are within MOGs or even 3 -digit blocks As we would expect in the case of most “career ladder” transitions

Next steps require state-specific inputs • Estimates of occupational employment and corresponding estimates of unemployed, NILF, and self employed for year t and year t+1 • We do one-year-ahead projections every quarter, you could just cut your twoyear projections in half • Do also need working age pop and labor force projections one year ahead • Enter these in left-hand column (year t) and top row (year t+1) • Multiply year t values by rates to get transition levels (number of workers moving from Occ X in t to Occ Y in t+1) • Iteratively rake the matrix levels until they are consistent with both year t and year t+1 occupational estimates • This produces the occupational transition matrix in levels that is consistent with your state’s occupational mix and one-year projections

Example – the portion of the matrix covering Computer & Math This allows us to calculate the exits, entries and transitions needed to determine net replacements available to new grads as in example above

Top Net Replacement Demand Occs for MN by Award Bachelor's Degree Occupations Our Est. BLS Est. 41 -4011 Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific products 2, 293 684 13 -2011 Accountants and auditors 1, 027 2, 811 29 -2011 Medical and clinical laboratory technologists 989 NA 27 -1024 Graphic designers 928 631 13 -1071 Human resources specialists 920 1, 392 29 -1141 Registered nurses 1, 256 4, 077 29 -2056 Veterinary technologists and technicians 543 291 29 -2021 Dental hygienists 498 331 23 -2011 Paralegals and legal assistants 450 587 15 -1151 Computer user support specialists 439 1, 096 31 -1014 Nursing assistants 5, 589 3, 462 39 -5012 Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists 1, 694 1, 173 49 -3023 Automotive service technicians and mechanics 1, 296 1, 065 51 -4041 Machinists 1, 250 1, 466 29 -2061 Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 926 1, 322 Associate's Degree Occupations Vocational Certificate Occupations

Now that we have demand, how about supply? • Need a count per year of graduates by CIP and Award level – essentially measuring the postsecondary capacity to produce these grads annually • We use SLDS and WDQI, but EDEPS IPED data could be used Bachelor's Degree Occupations 513801 520201 420101 260101 520301 Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse. Business Administration and Management, General. Psychology, General. Biology/Biological Sciences, General. Accounting. 2, 191 2, 117 1, 818 1, 549 1, 154 Associate's Degree Occupations 240101 513801 520201 520301 430107 Liberal Arts and Sciences/Liberal Studies. Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse. Business Administration and Management, General. Accounting. Criminal Justice/Police Science. 6, 660 2, 500 787 453 427 Vocational Certificate Occupations 513902 513901 120401 480508 430107 Nursing Assistant/Aide and Patient Care Assistant/Aide. Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse Training. Cosmetology/Cosmetologist, General. Welding Technology/Welder. Criminal Justice/Police Science. 1, 773 1, 074 713 514 397

Another challenging step – converting demand units into supply units • Unfortunately, we must rely on a CIP-to-SOC crosswalk • We have been experimenting with 3 versions • One that is pretty close to the standard NCES version • One that limits transitions from CIP to SOC that are most direct trainings • One that expands transitions to include “sensible and empirically frequent” (ACS) employment outcomes (Work still in progress) • For example, for Web Developers (15 -1134), the most direct program would be CIP 110801 - Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resource Design, but other IT fields such as CIP 110103 – Information Technology is part of the standard crosswalk, and 10% of Web Developers studied CIP 520201 - Business Management and Administration, which is “sensible and frequent” • I’ll limit examples to the “close to standard” version

Handling educational requirements • In distributing the supply of grads across the occupations they qualify for, we also apply this by award level • Given past “debate” over the appropriate degree necessary for many occupations, we used nearly a half million response to our job vacancy survey to determine ed requirements by MN employers for the various occupations they were trying to fill • Found that the standard BLS classification was not too far off • We use our own classification, but you can use BLS and not be too far off • We then distribute grads across occupations, and distribute occupational openings across grads, to derive surplus/shortage estimates for both CIPs and SOCs

Top/bottom results for BA Occupations 29 -2011 53 -2011 11 -2022 25 -4021 27 -1024 21 -1012 15 -1121 29 -9011 21 -1014 25 -2011 27 -3041 21 -1091 15 -2031 13 -1161 13 -1041 43 -9081 27 -3043 13 -2081 41 -4011 21 -1092 Top Ten Bachelors Occupations Medical and clinical laboratory technologists Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers Sales managers Librarians Graphic designers Educational, guidance, school, and vocational counselors Computer systems analysts Occupational health and safety specialists Mental health counselors Preschool teachers, except special education Bottom Ten Bachelors Occupations Editors Health educators Operations research analysts Market research analysts and marketing specialists Compliance officers Proofreaders and copy markers Writers and authors Tax examiners and collectors, and revenue agents Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific products Probation officers and correctional treatment specialists Demand 989 546 373 354 928 274 450 211 234 331 Demand 122 107 42 371 229 253 120 153 Supply 50 47 - 4 649 51 228 - 44 141 Supply 472 731 697 1, 030 896 977 1, 431 1, 787 Difference 939 499 373 350 280 223 222 211 191 189 Difference (350) (624) (655) (660) (667) (724) (1, 311) (1, 634) 2, 293 4, 818 (2, 525) 18 2, 889 (2, 871)

Same for AA Occupations 29 -2021 29 -2056 29 -2055 29 -2034 23 -2011 29 -2012 31 -2021 49 -9062 17 -3026 17 -3022 17 -3025 17 -3011 17 -3013 29 -1126 45 -2011 29 -1124 15 -1151 17 -3024 33 -3051 29 -1141 Top Ten Associates Occupations Dental hygienists Veterinary technologists and technicians Surgical technologists Radiologic technologists Paralegals and legal assistants Medical and clinical laboratory technicians Physical therapist assistants Medical equipment repairers Industrial engineering technicians Civil engineering technicians Bottom Ten Associates Occupations Environmental engineering technicians Architectural and civil drafters Mechanical drafters Respiratory therapists Agricultural inspectors Radiation therapists Computer user support specialists Electro-mechanical technicians Police and sheriff's patrol officers Registered nurses Demand 498 543 423 401 450 410 300 194 172 158 Demand 21 65 85 4 1 439 9 239 1, 256 Supply 156 237 122 165 215 198 101 36 73 Supply 47 92 121 45 85 551 154 1, 680 4, 691 Difference 342 306 301 236 235 212 199 163 136 85 Difference (26) (27) (36) (41) (71) (84) (112) (145) (1, 441) (3, 435)

Same for AA Instructional Programs 510602 510808 510909 510911 510806 220302 511004 150401 150613 510901 510716 513901 440000 510801 510707 430107 520301 520201 513801 240101 Top Ten Associates Instructional Programs Demand Dental Hygiene/Hygienist. 156 Veterinary/Animal Health Technology/Technician and Veterinary Assistant. 237 Surgical Technology/Technologist. 111 Radiologic Technology/Science - Radiographer. 150 Physical Therapy Technician/Assistant. 101 Legal Assistant/Paralegal. 180 Clinical/Medical Laboratory Technician. 156 Biomedical Technology/Technician. 32 Manufacturing Engineering Technology/Technician. 35 Cardiovascular Technology/Technologist. 19 Bottom Ten Associates Instructional Programs Demand Medical Administrative/Executive Assistant and Medical Secretary. 203 Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse Training. 214 Human Services, General. 259 Medical/Clinical Assistant. 291 Health Information/Medical Records Technology/Technician. 354 Criminal Justice/Police Science. 427 Accounting. 453 Business Administration and Management, General. 787 Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse. 2, 500 Liberal Arts and Sciences/Liberal Studies. 6, 660 Supply 498 543 385 365 300 377 323 195 167 83 Supply 0 0 0 61 11 19 670 - Difference 342 306 274 215 199 197 163 132 64 Difference (203) (214) (259) (291) (354) (366) (442) (768) (1, 830) (6, 660)

Summary • Replacement openings as estimated through projections do not tell us how many students should pursue a major to enter an occupation • For that we need to account for occupational transitions (career ladders) of incumbent workers • This represents our effort to address this VERY challenging need • Major challenges are lack of precise and reliable data, especially regarding occupational transitions and CIP-SOC transitions • Another reason to collect occupational codes/titles on wage records • And to put some serious thinking into the CIP-SOC crosswalk • Comments and collaborations are welcome!!!!!!! Call me !!!! Thank You!!!!