WMO No 1150 WMO Guidelines on MultiHazard Impactbased

WMO No. 1150 WMO Guidelines on Multi-Hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services Gerald Fleming, Chair, OPAG on Public Weather Service Delivery

WMO No. 1150 WMO Guidelines on Multi. Hazard Impact-Based Forecast and Warning Services Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 2

Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 3

Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 4

The Case for Impact-Based Forecasting It is no longer enough to provide a good weather forecast or warning – people are now demanding information about what to do to ensure their safety and protect their property. Many people still lose their lives, and socio-economic costs associated with hydrometeorological hazards continue to rise…. . …. due, in part, to a lack of appreciation and understanding of the impacts How should WMO Members change what they are doing to solve this problem? Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 5

The Case for Impact-Based Forecasting An accurate and timely hydrometeorological warning does not guarantee safety of life or prevent major economic disruption… National Meteorological and Hydrological Services need to work more effectively with Disaster / Emergency Managers, as well as with the public and stakeholders, to help people understand how hazards can affect them to ensure appropriate actions. These can be done in a subjective way working alongside users and customers, or in an objective way through developing an impact model using vulnerability and exposure datasets as well as meteorological information Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 6

The Case for Impact-Based Forecasting Successful impact-based forecasting requires collaboration with others who have the additional necessary expertise, resources and knowledge (such as demographic data, crowd-sourcing techniques, geographical information systems (GISs), interoperability, and third-party data integration and usage) to deliver impact services that NMHSs cannot do on their own Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 7

The Case for Impact-Based Forecasting Successful impact-based forecasting requires collaboration with others who have the additional necessary expertise, resources and knowledge (such as demographic data, crowd-sourcing techniques, geographical information systems (GISs), interoperability, and third-party data integration and usage) to deliver impact services that NMHSs cannot do on their own Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 8

The Case for Impact-Based Forecasting S P Successful impact-based forecasting requires. Icollaboration with others who have the additional necessary expertise, resources and knowledge H S (such as demographic data, crowd-sourcing techniques, geographical R information systems (GISs), interoperability, and third-party data E integration and usage) to deliver impact services that NMHSs cannot do N T on their own R A P Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 9

The Case for Impact-Based Forecasting These Guidelines outline a road map to assist WMO Members to progress from weather forecasts and warnings to multi-hazard impactbased forecast and warning services in a manner that is aligned with The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and its Implementation Plan (WMO-No. 1129). Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 10

The Case for Impact-Based Forecasting Weather Forecasts and Warnings Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 Impact-Based Forecast and Warning Services 11

Key Ideas in Impact-Based Forecast and Warning Services Hazard ― Meteorological or hydrological element that poses a threat Forecast Uncertainty ― The limit of predictability imposed by the nature of the atmosphere Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 12

Key Ideas in Impact-Based Forecast and Warning Services Exposure ― Who or what may be affected in an area where a hazard may occur Vulnerability ― The liability of exposed human beings, their livelihoods and property, to suffer bad effects when affected by a hazard Risk ― The probability and magnitude of harm possible to humans, their livelihoods and assets because of exposure and vulnerability to a hazard Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 13

HAZARD EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 14

EXPOSURE HAZARD RISK VULNERABILITY Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 15

Key Ideas in Impact-Based Forecast and Warning Services Weather Warning: ― “Strong winds are expected tonight with wind speeds of 20 m/s likely” Impact-based Warning: ― “Strong winds are expected tonight which may result in delays or cancellation to ferry services and keep small fishing boats tied up” Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 16

Weather Warning Services Different types of Weather Warning 1. Warnings with fixed thresholds. 2. Warnings with user-defined thresholds 3. Warnings with variable thresholds Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 17

Weather Warning Services Different types of Weather Warning 1. Warnings with fixed thresholds. Saffir-Simpson Scale for strength of Tropical Cyclones / Hurricanes Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 18

Weather Warning Services Different types of Weather Warning 2. Warnings with user-defined thresholds. Flash Flood Warning for City Authority “ 50 mm of rain expected during the next two hours which will cause problems with the street drainage system and lead to flooding on the roads” Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 19

Weather Warning Services Different types of Weather Warning 3. Warnings with variable thresholds. High Temperature Warning Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 20

Weather Warning Services Different types of Weather Warnings with fixed Rainfall accumulations of 30 mm to 40 mm thresholds expected tomorrow between 1400 and 2300. Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 21 Hazard

Weather Warning Services Different types of Weather Warnings with user- Heavy rain expected tomorrow afternoon Hazard defined thresholds with rainfall intensities of 3 mm/10 mins + possible, leading to overflow in the drainage Vulnerability system. Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 22

Weather Warning Services Different types of Weather Warnings with variable thresholds (place to place) Weather warning – rainfall accumulations of Hazard 20 mm to 30 mm expected tomorrow in low + -lying areas between 1400 and midnight, Vulnerability with accumulations of 50 mm to 60 mm possible at altitudes above 1, 500 m. Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 23

Weather Warning Services Different types of Weather Warnings with variable thresholds (time to time) Weather warning – rainfall accumulations of Hazard 15 mm to 20 mm expected tomorrow + afternoon during rush hour. Vulnerability Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 24

Weather Warning Services Different types of Weather Warning Impact-Based Warning Rainfall accumulations of 20 mm to 30 mm expected tomorrow between 1400 and midnight, resulting in possible road closures due to flooding across the south-east. Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 25 Hazard + Vulnerability

Weather Warning Services Different types of Weather Warning Impact Warning Expect journey times on the A 11 Highway to Hazard be lengthened by an hour because of + significant traffic disruption in the south. Vulnerability east tomorrow afternoon due to localized + flooding which is expected to follow a heavy Exposure rain event. Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 26

Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 27

Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 28

The Weather Warning Risk Matrix Weather Warnings have always had a focus on SEVERITY Now also need to look at UNCERTAINTY Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 29

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The Weather Warning Risk Matrix Why should we use the risk matrix? ? § § We can now have an earlier expression of potential impact, well before a significant hydrometeorological event. We can from day to day show the changing expectation of risk, depending on changing exposure, vulnerability and hydrometeorological likelihood. Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 31

The Weather Warning Risk Matrix How should we use the risk matrix? ? Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 32

The Weather Warning Risk Matrix - Example 4 Days before a Tropical Cyclone arrives X Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 33

The Weather Warning Risk Matrix - Example 3 Days before a Tropical Cyclone arrives X Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 34

The Weather Warning Risk Matrix - Example 2 Days before a Tropical Cyclone arrives X Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 35

The Weather Warning Risk Matrix - Example 1 Day before a Tropical Cyclone arrives X Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 36

The Weather Warning Risk Matrix - Example Path of Risk over many days X X Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 37

The Weather Warning Risk Matrix - Benefits § § § Improved planning for different scenarios based on different impacts or combinations of impacts occurring; Better contingency planning (best, reasonable worst-case and most likely outcomes); Information about level of confidence in the forecast (a more informed risk assessment); New information to facilitate wider social benefits; A comprehensive and coordinated process to address disaster response and preparedness. Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 38

Developing Impact-Based Forecast and Warning Services § Partnerships are very important… Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 39

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Developing Impact-Based Forecast and Warning Services § § § Which government bodies and other stakeholders can support impact -based forecasting? Develop governance between parties including steering committees and advisory groups; Establish programme management - roles and responsibilities for development, implementation, delivery and; Develop a communications strategy – what are the expected services, the respective roles of parties, and outreach activities; Agree how best to provide quality management and assurance of products and services; Think about whether international cooperation is required. Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 41

Developing Capacity for NMHSs in IBFWS § § § What are the required competencies and skills? Cross-training with users on requirements and procedures Educating users on how to use impact-based forecast and Warning services Ø Special Users (transport, electricity, city authorities…) Ø Media Ø Public Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 42

CHALLENGE METHODOLOGY Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 SOLUTION PRACTICE

Symposium on Impact-Based Forecast and Warning Services q This is being planned for December 2019 (dates are not decided yet) q Probably to be held in the UK q Want to gather experience from countries who have tried out Impact. Based Forecast and Warning Services q Want to develop and update the book “Guide to Multi-Hazard Impact -Based Forecast and Warning Services” (WMO No. 1150) Gerald Fleming Lao Workshop Feb 2019 44

What does WMO want to learn from IBFWS Demonstration Projects? What are the opportunities / issues? A. Experience – what worked well, in what context, and what did not work so well? i. iii. iv. v. vi. Examples of best practice Examples of failure – and what lessons were learned Management structures for IBF projects Resources needed for IBF projects How to change the working culture of an NMHS? Technical solutions to merging data from many different sources © Crown Fleming copyright Lao Met Workshop Office Gerald Feb 2019

What does WMO want to learn from IBFWS Demonstration Projects? What are the opportunities / issues? B. What are the common factors underlying success, and/or failure, in IBF-related projects? C. How can WMO best support / resource IBF-based projects? D. How will we need to train our future meteorologists and forecasters to better support the Impact-Based approach? E. What are the training needs of the users that facilitate a successful approach to Impact-Based Forecast and Warnings Services? © Crown Fleming copyright Lao Met Workshop Office Gerald Feb 2019

Exercise What are the opportunities / issues? A. Write out a typical weather warning issued by your service B. Re-write this weather warning in the style of an impactbased warning . . © Crown Fleming copyright Lao Met Workshop Office Gerald Feb 2019