WMO infrastructure for operational prediction from subseasonal to
WMO infrastructure for operational prediction from sub-seasonal to longer time scales Caio Coelho (Joint CBS/CCl IPET-OPSLS Co-chair) CPTEC/INPE, Brazil cknowledgements: Arun Kumar (IPET-OPSLS Chair), Rupa Kumar Kolli (WMO Anahit Hovsepyan (WMO) IPET-OPSLS meeting Barcelona, 2 and 4 -6 June 2018 1
Background • In recent years, WMO (through CBS and CCl) designated centres responsible for generating and delivering long-range forecasts and other climate information • This infrastructure is part of the WMO’s Global Data. Processing and Forecast System (GDPFS) • The designated centres and their roles and responsibilities are defined in the “Manual on the GDPFS (WMO-No. 485)” • This infrastructure is also the core for the Climate Service Information System (CSIS) of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) 2
WMO infrastructure for seasonal and inter-annual prediction • GFCS three-tier structure for long-range forecasting: Global domain: • Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts (GPC-LRFs) responsible for long-range forecasts and associated verification; • A Lead Centre (LC) for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensembles (LCLRFMME): collects and displays GPC forecasts, generates multi-model products; • A Lead Centre for Standardised Verification of Long-Range Forecasts (LCSVSLRF): provides documentation on verification scores, software and recommended datasets for long-range forecast verification Regional domain: • Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and RCC Networks covering WMO RAs and Polar Regions (either fully designated or in a demonstration Phase) National domain: • National Met. and Hydrological Serv. (NMHSs) play central role at national level, including coordination National Climate Outlook Forums (NCOFs) 3
Designation of Global Producing Centres of LRF • WMO process to designate centres making global seasonal forecasts as WMO Global Producing Centres (GPCs) of Long Range Forecasts (LRF) started in 2006 • GPC-LRFs have to follow commonly defined standards: – a fixed forecast production cycle – a standard set of forecast products – WMO-defined verification standards for retrospective forecasts 4
Currently designated GPC-LRF 5 Europe 3 Asia 2 North America 1 Africa 1 Oceania 1 South America Target audience: NMHSs, RCCs and RCOFs Links to 13 designated GPCs: 5 http: //www. wmo. int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/gpc. php
Minimum required products delivered by GPC-LRF • Predictions for averages, accumulations, or frequencies over 1 -month periods or longer (typically anomalies in 3 -month-averaged quantities is the standard format for seasonal forecasts, and forecasts are usually expressed probabilistically) • Lead time: between 0 and 4 months • Issue frequency: monthly or at least quarterly • Delivery: graphical images on GPC-LRF website and/or digital data for download • Variables: 2 m temperature, precipitation, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Mean Sea-Level Pressure (MSLP), 500 h. Pa height, 850 h. Pa 6 temperature
WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble http: //www. wmolc. org Target audience: NMHSs, RCCs and RCO Jointly operated by Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) and NOAA NCEP 7
LC-LRFMME operational activities on LRF in support of WMO members • Collection of retrospective and real-time forecasts from GPCs • Production of real time forecast products from the collected GPCs • Production of multi-model ensemble (MME) forecast products and ther verification from the collected GPCs • Dissemination of forecast and verification products in the LCLRFMME web site for NMHSs, RCCs and RCOFs • Dissemination of retrospective forecast data from GPCs (that allow data distribution) to RCCs, NMHSs and RCOFs 8
Example product: WMO Multi-model Ens. Prob. forecast 9
Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) • • RCCs provide regional climate products in support of regional and national climate activities Mandatory Functions: – Operational Activities for LRF – Operational Activities for Climate Monitoring – Operational Data Services, to support operational LRF and climate monitoring – Training in the use of operational RCC products and services • Highly Recommended Functions: – – – • Climate prediction and projection Non-operational data services Coordination functions Training and capacity building Research and development Two modes of Implementation: fully self-contained RCCs or distributedfunction RCC-Networks http: //www. wmo. int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/rcc. php 10
WMO infrastructure for annual to decadal climate prediction • In process for designation: Global Producing Centres for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction (GPC-ADCP): Responsible for producing 1 year and 1 -5 year average forecasts and associated verification Forecast products: (a) Global maps of ensemble mean anomalies with indications of ensemble spread: – Near-surface air temperature; – Precipitation; – Sea-level pressure; (b) Ensemble mean annual global mean near-surface temperature and indications of ensemble spread, for every year of the forecast; (c) Global maps of probability for tercile categories (or other events) – Near-surface air temperature; – Precipitation; – Sea-level pressure. Verification products: Stage 1: Individual contributing centres: – Global maps: grid-point temporal correlation of the ensemble mean with observations. Stage 2: Individual contributing centres and the multi-model ensemble: 11 – Global maps of ROC scores for specified categories; – Reliability and sharpness diagrams for specified categories for agreed regions
WMO infrastructure for annual to decadal climate prediction • A Lead Centre (LC) for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction (LCADCP): - Responsible for collecting and displays GPC-ADCP forecasts, generating multi-model forecast and associated verification products; - Redistribute digital hindcast and forecast data for those contributing centres that allow redistribution - Promote research and experience in ADCP techniques and provide guidance and support on ADCP to RCCs and NMHSs; 12
- Slides: 12
