Wisconsin Statewide Model July 26 2006 Travel Forecasting

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Wisconsin Statewide Model July 26, 2006

Wisconsin Statewide Model July 26, 2006

Travel Forecasting & Analysis Section § Forecasts for Project Development & Design ü Major

Travel Forecasting & Analysis Section § Forecasts for Project Development & Design ü Major Projects and Statewide Corridors ü System-wide forecasts to Calculate Level-of-Service in Metamanager ü Statewide Model development for Multi-Modal Planning § VMT Estimation and Forecasting ü Output to FHWA for Program $ Apportionment ü Output to DNR for Environmental Air Quality Analysis ü Output to State Patrol & DTID for Fatality Rate Calculations § Origin & Destination Studies for Local Cost Share

Statewide Modeling Context • Systems View • Synchronization • Applications

Statewide Modeling Context • Systems View • Synchronization • Applications

Wisconsin Statewide Model

Wisconsin Statewide Model

Wisconsin Network Zone

Wisconsin Network Zone

Wisconsin MPO Models

Wisconsin MPO Models

Wisconsin Regional Models

Wisconsin Regional Models

Regional Model North. West Wisconsin

Regional Model North. West Wisconsin

MPO Model Eau. Claire / Chippewa Falls

MPO Model Eau. Claire / Chippewa Falls

System View Statewide Model Regional Model MPO Model

System View Statewide Model Regional Model MPO Model

System Feedback Statewide Model Regional Model MPO Model Statewide Model Provides AADT Estimates to

System Feedback Statewide Model Regional Model MPO Model Statewide Model Provides AADT Estimates to MPO Model Statewide Model Completed October 2004

System Feedback Statewide Model Regional Model MPO Model Provides AADT Estimates back to Statewide

System Feedback Statewide Model Regional Model MPO Model Provides AADT Estimates back to Statewide Model MPO Model Completed December 2004

Synchronized Models Statewide Model Regional Model MPO Model Synchronized Models Provides AADT Estimates to

Synchronized Models Statewide Model Regional Model MPO Model Synchronized Models Provides AADT Estimates to Regional Model Completed December 2005

Traffic Analysis Forecasting Information System TAFIS Produces and Warehouses AADT Estimates for Analysis Provide

Traffic Analysis Forecasting Information System TAFIS Produces and Warehouses AADT Estimates for Analysis Provide Overrides Capability of Historical Based Forecasts

Systems Interaction Statewide Regional MPO TAFIS Source Data for: -Wis. DOT’s Metamanager System -

Systems Interaction Statewide Regional MPO TAFIS Source Data for: -Wis. DOT’s Metamanager System - Wis. DOT’s Corridor Management - Traffic Impact Analysis

Traffic Analysis Forecasting Information System (TAFIS) • SAS-based forecasts utilizing historic data • Produces

Traffic Analysis Forecasting Information System (TAFIS) • SAS-based forecasts utilizing historic data • Produces and warehouses AADT estimates for analysis • Utilizes Box-Cox regression method for Interstate, US and Wisconsin State highways

TAFIS Example Station Location Madison, Dane County

TAFIS Example Station Location Madison, Dane County

Model Application Outputs • Conceptual Planning ( Alternatives Testing) • Input into Paramics (

Model Application Outputs • Conceptual Planning ( Alternatives Testing) • Input into Paramics ( Design) • Planned Projects within each MPO (Long Range Transportation Plan)

Design Concepts I-94 (St. Croix County) I- 94

Design Concepts I-94 (St. Croix County) I- 94

Principles • Partnership with Consultants • More robust AADT Estimates • Realistic Design •

Principles • Partnership with Consultants • More robust AADT Estimates • Realistic Design • Anticipate Emerging Growth

Thank you Wisconsin Statewide Model

Thank you Wisconsin Statewide Model

Questions

Questions

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Introduction Definition Forecasting Technology Technological Forecasting Process ForecastingIntroduction Definition Forecasting Technology Technological Forecasting Process Forecasting
Forecasting Forecasting Problems and Methods New product forecastingForecasting Forecasting Problems and Methods New product forecasting
Forecasting Forecasting A Basis of Forecasting In businessForecasting Forecasting A Basis of Forecasting In business
Forecasting Forecasting A Basis of Forecasting In businessForecasting Forecasting A Basis of Forecasting In business
DEMAND FORECASTING DEMAND FORECASTING Demand forecasting means estimationDEMAND FORECASTING DEMAND FORECASTING Demand forecasting means estimation
Forecasting Models FORECASTING Forecasting is attempting to predictForecasting Models FORECASTING Forecasting is attempting to predict
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