Wingnuts Cones and Forks Alan Robinson Dstl ISMOR
Wingnuts, Cones and Forks Alan Robinson, Dstl ISMOR 26, Sep 2009 ©Crown Copyright 2009. Published with the permission of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory on behalf of the Controller of HMSO
Structure • Why use planning scenarios ? • What else do we need to do ? • Some other considerations Disclaimer – my views not, necessarily, those of the Mo. D! 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Why Use Planning Scenarios ? Prediction is difficult… … especially about the future • So why bother with scenario-based planning ? 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Why does Mo. D use planning scenarios? • Coherent set of scenarios that all defence studies can work from • Reduces risk of advocacy-based analysis • Basing decisions on analysis from a number of scenarios adds confidence to Mo. D decisions 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
UK Mo. D Planning Scenarios • Formally derived from UK Policy – Maintained by the Studies Assumptions Group (SAG) • Set of scenarios representative of policy – In different countries – Against different adversaries – With different aims • Based around the world to give stretching examples of operations the UK wishes to plan for – Based on real-world geography 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Using Scenarios What defence should plan to achieve? DEFENCE POLICY Planning factors - e. g. concurrency assumptions Scenarios A lot happens in Consistent Feedback here… approach to • Detailed work up developing of the campaign scenarios, with buy-in • Forceacross estimation stakeholders • Instantiation in models Campaign Development Analysis/ Evidence 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Will typically involve modelling at multiple. Feedback levels… Provides a campaign “reference” • High-level case campaign modellingand some ideas on key potential • Detailed analysis of variations vignettes …and a raft of sensitivity analysis Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
What else do we need to do ? • “SAGWorld” provides a set of reference case scenarios • However, we also need to consider – Other potential futures – Impact of the “real” world • Then we can check: – How robust our policies and force structure plans are to such alternatives – Which alternative futures we want to invest in being able to address… – …which we’ll be able to cope with (because of the other things we plan on being able to achieve)… – …which will evolve slowly enough that we can adapt to them… – …and which we’re prepared to accept as risks. 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Some examples • Alternative future scenarios and future worlds – Cones, shocks and trends • The impact of current operations and policy developments – The “wingnut” • Using history to help with the future – Agile forces, adapting to evolving futures, “forks in the road” • Looking for disruptive technologies – S&T Trends Defence Implications, Horizon Scanning • Building alternative force structures – Donuts, risk frameworks 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Cones - Future Scenarios, Future Worlds 0 Years TRENDS 15 Years sible Shocks Plau Alterna tive Probable Altern Where we are now Plau ative Divergent Outcomes DIMENSIONS Resource Social Political Technological Military 30 Years sible Where might we be? 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Cones - Future Scenarios, Future Worlds 0 Years TRENDS 15 Years DIMENSIONS Resource Social Political Technological Military Shocks 30 Years sible Plau tive Alterna “S A G w Probable Altern ative Where we are now Plau sible o r l d” Where might we be? 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Illustrative Worlds • GLOBAL HARMONY • SLOWLY STABILISING • PERSISTING THREATS • UNDER ATTACK ? • … 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Illustrative Worlds • How likely are these worlds ? • What scenarios might occur in these worlds? • Which scenarios are common to all/many worlds? • Which scenarios only occur in unlikely worlds? • How do we monitor the evolution of the real world so we know which futures are becoming more/less likely? 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 ? Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
The “Wingnut” What is the effect of current deviations from tive Alterna policy ? sible Plau Policy evolution Probable Altern Where we are now ative What are the implications of current operations ? Plau sible 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
S&T Trends Defence Implications • Can be used to spot potential “positive” disruption (what we can do to them) and “negative” disruption (what they might do to us). 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Agile Forces • Asks two key questions: – Are there patterns in the conflicts of the past that can be used to help plan for the future ? – How do we assess agility of the force structure to adapt to future eventualities ? • Quantifies the key dimensions from strategic trends work 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Agile Forces • The future is unlikely to look like a simple extrapolation of the past • ‘Futures’ have statistical structure – Can begin to explore potential high impact low probability events (‘shocks’) across strategic trends – Consistent with Complex Adaptive Systems emergent behaviour • Can test ability of force structures to be robust and/or adaptable to shocks and trends – Where are the “forks in the road” in terms of future worlds/scenarios we can adapt to meet provided we make appropriate choices in a timely fashion ? 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Some Other Considerations • How do we pull all this together… • Start with worlds not scenarios 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Scenarios and Worlds • It matters less whether alternative future worlds are “right” than – That we understand the basis for our planning – We are alive to alternative futures and their implications – We know the differential impact of different worlds/scenarios – We understand how well we can adapt over time as the “real” world unfolds • Policy/strategy and resources need to be aligned appropriately – Expectation management and risk perception are key 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Some Other Considerations • How do we pull all this together… • Start with worlds not scenarios • Decide what you want to plan to able to do 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Donuts - Possible Force Structure Concepts Under a specific set of assumptions… “Must do” “Should do” “Only if choose to” 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Donuts - Possible Force Structure Concepts (with affordability added) Under a specific set of assumptions… “Must do” “What can we afford to do? ” and/or “What can’t we afford not to do? !” 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Some Other Considerations • How do we pull all this together… • Start with worlds not scenarios • Decide what you want to plan to able to do • Adopt a consistent risk/effectiveness/resource description 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Where can we take risk? • Readiness risk is the most acceptable – delays unlikely to have significant implications Political risk • Concurrency risk is less acceptable • Political Risk Operational – implications for international stability, upholding international obligations, protecting territory Concurrency • Operational risk is least acceptable Readiness – may jeopardise UK’s ability to conduct other important operations Unacceptability – assessed usually through judgement – Risk of damage to the domestic or international reputation of the UK 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Some Other Considerations • How do we pull all this together… • Start with worlds not scenarios • Decide what you want to plan to able to do • Adopt a consistent risk/effectiveness/resource description • Articulate the results in a clear fashion – Readily assimilated by senior audiences – Describing the key assumptions – Clearly illustrating the consequences of any potential policy choices 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
The Take Home… • While (rightly) ensuring we are successful in current ops, how do we also ensure that – We don’t lock ourselves into a view of the future that is unlikely to come about ? – We temper current operational imperatives with sufficient attention to other potential future eventualities ? – We fully consider non-equipment and non-technology aspects ? • Consistent use of appropriate worlds/scenarios is one of the keys to success – Enables effective alignment of resources, risks and expectations – Provides an auditable and explicit framework for planning • But… – Needs to be dynamic and responsive to evolving futures 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
How not to do it… 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Questions, Observations … 23 September 2021 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
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