Will climate change affect sugar beet establishment of

Will climate change affect sugar beet establishment of the 21 st century? Insights from a simulation study Jay Ram Lamichhane, Julie Constantin, Jean-Noël Aubertot, Carolyne Dürr INRA, France carolyne. durr@inra. fr 40 th Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25 th – 28 th February 2019

Predicted variables Seedbed temperature Seedbed water content 2 Daily predicted variables at a local scale Air temperatures, rainfalls, wind, global radiation, …. 1 3 40 th Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25 th – 28 th February 2019 Predicted variables % germination % emergence, Time to Germ-Emer Causes of non emergence % of bolting

Regionalized scenarios of climate change 1 Northern France Air temperatures wind, global radiation Rainfalls 2020 - 2100 Sugar beet cropping area in France 40 th Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA Feb. 25 - Feb. 28 2019

Simulated seedbed climate 2 STICS 40 th Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25 th – 28 th February 2019

The SIMPLE model’s main principles 3 Z Input variables Soil structure = f (tillage and sowing operations) Species and seed lot characteristics Climate and soil characteristics Y X 3 D seedbed generator Equations for prediction of Germination and seedling growth T°, H 2 O, soil surface crusting Output variables Germination times and rates Emergence times and rates Seedling’s early growth 40 th Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25 th – 28 th February 2019

Simulation of sugar beet establishment Sugar beet parameter values 5 sowing dates ● Mid-February ● 1 rst March ● Mid-march ● 1 rst April ● Mid-April Seedbed structure 2020 -2100 Sowing depths ● Seedbed temperatures ● Seedbed water content ● Daily rainfalls ● Air temperatures Z Y Tb 3. 5°C; ψb 1. 96 MPa Germination speed X % seeds 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 mm Total : 405 simulations (405 000 individual seeds) Radicle and hypocotyl elongation Clods and crust sensitivity 40 th Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25 th – 28 th February 2019

Results Emergence rate % Nb days to max emergence 2020 -2040 2080 -2100 48 ± 32 68 ± 20 45 ± 24 37 ± 10 2020 -2040 2080 -2100 69 ± 15 74 ± 15 28 ± 7 23 ± 8

Causes of non emergence 40 Non germinated seeds 30 40 2020 - 2040 2080 - 2100 20 10 10 0 0 Mid-March 1 rst April 2020 - 2040 2080 - 2100 30 20 Mid-February 1 rst March Seedlings killed by drought after germination Mid-April Mid-February 1 rst March Soil surface crusting 40 Mid-March 2020 - 2040 2080 - 2100 30 20 10 0 Mid-February 1 rst March Mid-March 1 rst April Mid-April 40 th Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25 th – 28 th February 2019 1 rst April Mid-April

Bolting risks Predicted bolting rate 1, 8 1, 6 1, 4 1, 2 1 0, 8 0, 6 0, 4 0, 2 0 2020 -2040 2041 -2060 2061 -2080 2081 -2100 15 th Feb. 1 srt March 15 th March 1 st april Probability of devernalization 35 (N° days Tmax > 25°C 60 -120 days after sowing) 30 Source image IRBAB 25 1 st april 20 15 th March 15 1 srt March 10 15 th Feb. 5 0 2020 -2040 2041 -2060 2061 -2080 40 th Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25 th – 28 th February 2019 2081 -2100

Field access during the sowing period Predicted cumulative rainfalls 2020 - 2100 Historical data 1987 - 2018 40 th Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25 th – 28 th February 2019

Conclusions An insight into the future has been possible with the help of - Precise geolocalized climatic scenario - Detailed crop models for simulation Main results - Main changes will occur after 2060 - An increase in temperatures will favor crop establishment and decrease bolting risk - Rainfalls will be a main limit preventing field access Limits - Quality of models and hypothesis - Biotic stresses 40 th Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25 th – 28 th February 2019

Acknowledgements Will climate change affect sugar beet establishment of the 21 st century? Insights from a simulation study using a crop emergence model Jay Ram Lamichhane, Julie Constantin, Jean-Noël Aubertot, Carolyne Dürr carolyne. durr@inra. fr Submitted. 40 th Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25 th – 28 th February 2019