Wicked Problems and Comprehensive Thinking in Dr Ed

Wicked Problems and Comprehensive Thinking in Dr. Ed Smith Mark Clemente Specialists Meeting 24 -26 March 2009 Zentrum fur Transformation der Bundeswehr Ottobrunn, Germany BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company. Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 Filename. ppt |

Outline 1. Wicked Problems: Globalization and Messy Social Challenges 2. How do we deal with “Wickedness”? : Three Part Conceptual Framework • • • Complexity Theory Living Systems Theory Decision-making Theory 3. Coping with Complexity: Tools and PEOPLE 4. Conclusion: Comprehensive Thinking Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 2

1. The Wicked Problem: Globalization and Messy Social Challenges Globalization: Multi-dimensional Problem – Social, cultural, political, economic dimensions, PLUS… – Information Revolution § Global near real time media § No society left untouched – More isolated/ traditional the society, the bigger the impact – Challenge Westphalian system based on sovereign states § Failed states, non-state/ terrorist movements Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 3

Spectrum of “Real World” Operations Major Combat Peace Crisis Response War Post. Conflict Peace Counterinsurgency Peacekeeping Security Peacemaking Persuasion Law Enforcement Economic/Political Strike Dissuasion Police Operations Stabilization Deterrence Sanctions Enforcement Major Combat Social Works Presence Blockade Cooperation Evacuation Collaboration Humanitarian Assistance/ Disaster Response 4

What does that mean? Major Combat Peace Crisis Response War Post. Conflict Peace • Increasing human dimension • Increasing complexity • Cross spectrum • Increasing need for a comprehensive approach 5

Irregular Warfare? § Not irregular, not necessarily warfare, not solely military § Focus on the human dimension – Man, his organizations, and his actions are the Problem … and Solution – Battles for “hearts and minds” § “Suasion” Operations § Victory = Changing perceptions § Psychological vice Physical Attrition … and metrics § Competition and conflict vice war and peace – Continuing interaction § Ongoing § Ever-changing § Never ending – Not friends or foes but actors Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 6

The Wicked Problem §“Wicked” (Rittel and Webber) – – Each problem unique and part of web of problems Enumerable potential solutions No end state No right or wrong answer § The “Social Mess” (Horne) – Man and social context as source of the “wicked” “mess” – Human actions inherently messy § Endless array of interdependent variables, constraints § Uncertainties, Ambiguities § Conflicting viewpoints, values Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 7

Wicked vs. Complex Wicked, Messy Problems are not impossible … just complex • We deal with complex problems everyday Irregular Warfare and Comprehensive Approaches are complex because • They operate in a complex world • They must tackle complex problems • They seek complex results Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 8

2. Dealing with “Wickedness” : Three Part Conceptual Framework – Complexity Theory § Defines nature of challenge/ “wicked” problem § Define limits of what we can know and do § Not impossible-- can assess, understand, bound, learn, adapt – Living Systems Theory § Provides context for complex interactions § Provides real world model of system § Opens door to social sciences, history – Decision Making Theory § Dissects systems/ actions into discrete tasks and problems sets – How decisions are made, by whom – Within what context § Provides road map for tool and subject matter expert insertion Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 9

Complexity Theory: What do we mean by “complex”? § Complicated – Known/knowable, predictable cause and effect chain – Inputs/outputs proportional – Whole equals sum of parts § Complex – Multiple interdependent variables – Changing cause and effect chain – Inputs and outputs not proportional; whole does not equal sum of the parts § Complex Adaptive System – Not only complex but reacts and evolves independently in ways we cannot entirely predict 10 Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 10

Complexity Theory Complex World – Very large numbers of interdependent variables – Changing constellations of variables § New variables arising, old variables fading § Different weightings § Different interrelationships – Changing rates of change § Over time § From one portion of the constellation to the next § From one level to the next Irregular Warfare and Comprehensive Approaches – Success = Ability to deal with very large numbers of interdependent variables but… – Can never fully know interactions or precisely predict outcomes Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 11

Complexity: Interdependent Variables Large numbers of interdependent variables shape the behavior of each actor but continually change t 1 Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 12

Complexity: Interdependent Variables t-2 Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release

Complexity: Interdependent Variables t-3 Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release

Complexity: Interdependent Variables Each variable is two-directional affecting other actors… Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 15

Complexity: Interdependent Variables … who in turn co-evolve and affect each other. Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 16

Complexity § Key Characteristics and Mechanisms of complex systems become potential analytical tools – Tagging – Aggregation Pattern Analysis – Building Blocks – Internal Models Combined with Living Systems Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 17

Complexity: Tagging and Aggregation Tagging: Identifying classes of variables – social, economic, cultural, demographic, military…. Aggregation: Watching how these vary over time t 1 Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 18

Complexity: Tagging and Aggregation t-2 Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for

Complexity: Tagging and Aggregation t-3 Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for

Complexity: Tagging and Aggregation Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release

Living Systems Theory § Living Systems Theory offers multi-layer system of complex adaptive systems – Provides building blocks, internal models for the living CAS that define IW and CA world – Provides real world framework for the system of CAS that make up the IW/ CA world § Systems are product of two types of evolution – Biological: Darwinian natural selection, “survival of the fittest” – Sociological: Purposeful learning and adaptation § Human organizations at all levels § Traceable through history § Result: § May not be able to predict how each system might react or change, but… § Can understand trace why CAS succeed or fail § Can identify “essential processes” and capabilities needed to succeed – Building blocks common to all living systems – Identifiable in human systems at every level Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 22

Living Systems: The System of Complex Adaptive Living Systems Supranational Societal Community Organization Group Organism Organ Cell Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Sociological OOOOOOO Biological oooooooooooooo Based on James Grier Miller, Living Systems Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 23

Living Systems: How we change § Learning and Adaptation: – All CAS must learn and adapt to survive – Purposeful sociological evolution = human CAS learning/ adapting § Five levels of learning/ adaptation – Adaptive Action – Learning to Learn – Defining/ Redefining success – Co-adaptation All involve humans making conscious decisions Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 24

Decision-making Theory …and Tools § Complexity – Two forms of knowledge § Knowledge as the sum of information § Knowledge as internalized understanding of a complex subject § Living Systems – Can identify CAS structures and common processes – Human decisions key to learning, adaptation, purposeful change § Decision-making dissects into finite problems/actions – Two constructs: § The “Rational Actor” § The OODA Decision-making process Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 25

Decision-making Theory: The “Rational Actor”- Context is Everything § Rationality: “the latent power to make logical inferences and draw conclusions that enable one to understand the world about him and relate such knowledge to the attainment of ends. ” – § The irrational actor = random acts/ no limit/ no bounds Complexity/ Living Systems Caveats – § “Rationality” is complex behavior only understood in context Context: Social, cultural, religious, economic, political… § § § “where you sit” structural and organizational Individual education, experience, training Context changes / evolves § § Context is snapshot of a moving target Context is time dependent Rational Actor used extensively in social science/ history Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 26

Decision-making Theory: From Stimulus and Response to OODA Loops to… Copyright © 2009 Boeing.

…to On-going, Never-ending Spirals of Interactions Spirals of Action-Reaction Cycles With Spin Off Interactions Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 28

3. Tools and PEOPLE: Coping with Complexity No Big Black Box but… § Can bound the problem – Use what we know or can know to bound what we cannot know or know in time § Distinction between what is linear and can be decomposed and what is complex and cannot § Use former to bound the latter § Can dissect the decision-cycle to assess who needs what tool/ expertise where and when – Core questions: § What is the problem? § What are potential actions? § What are potential consequences? Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 29

Tools and PEOPLE Basic types of tools: – Internal Models: § Set context for problem, actor, solution – Multi-level systems – Decision makers spread through process § Models need not be highly detailed but must change iteratively as situation evolves – Building Blocks: § Essential processes that all actors must undertake § Component pieces/ aspects of problem or system – Forces, actors, sub-systems – Tags: § “Taggable” aspects or indicators that can be observed and tracked § Provide patterns and trends Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Steps in Action-Reaction Cycle use all three tools Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 30

Awareness Creation Tasking System Capability Organic Collection Priority Situation History Non-organic Decision Level Accessible Sensors Human Reporting Organic Collate Electronic Sensor Parameters Manage Organic Validate Non-organic Data Handling Assess Accessible Non-organic History Org. Fusion Accessible Non-organic Fuse Sources Subjects Human Organic Accessible Non-organic Accessible Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 31

Sensemaking Contextualization History Knowledge Base Organic Retrieval Time Non-organic Identify Validate Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Organic Non-organic Retrieval Non-organic Culture National Organization Interface Accessible Mental Model Subject Compilation Situation Analysis Accessible Identify Validate Profession Education/ Experience Accessible Validate Cause & Effect Physical Impacts Own Organization Infrastructure Other Organization Society Psychological Impact Information Political Social Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- Futures Projected Cascades Physical Infrastructure Human Psychological Implications Short term Situation Observers Long Term 32

Decision-making Exploring Options Objectives Short Term Capabilities Available Organic Problem Level Organization Independent Non-organic Potential Synergies Long Term Problem Accessible Level Organization Planning Potential Actions Feasibility Organic Choosing Compare/Evaluate Best Potential Actions Commit Capabilities Probability of success By Problem Non-organic Physical Impacts Timeliness By Level Flexibility By Organization Robustness Direct Indirect Cascades Capability Availability Organic Non-Organic Psychological Impacts Local Accessible Choose Societal Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Planning International Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- Coordinate Organic Non-Organic Effort-wide Communicate Direction/ Guidance 33

Implement Contextualize Adapt Evolving Problem Situation at time of Implementation Physical Predicted vs. actual situation Societal Actual Actions Unplanned changes Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Actual vs. Planned Impact Observed Changing Variables Physical Asset availability Psychological Local Feedback Coordinate Adaptation Organic Non-organic Initial Reactions Local Societal International Effort-wide Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 34

Tools, PEOPLE… and the Real World: Scale, Timing & Perspective § Scale: – Decision-making not only by “commander” § Takes many forms from strategic corporal to President/ Prime Minister – Each level aggregates all decision-making from lower levels and adds its own § Tyranny of Time: – Decisions at all levels are function of time § Time windows for gathering information/ knowledge, for assessing, acting, learning, adapting – Time forces trade-offs between tools and people § Shorter the time, greater the reliance on the individual and his education, experience, training § Shorter the time the less information, knowledge, analysis § Utility of analytical tools tied to time Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 35

Perspective – Hierarchal Coordination The Fedora Curve Major Combat Peace Crisis Response Post. Conflict Peace 36

The Other People Factor : Organization & Networking § War and Peace are a complex “art” – Require application of an internalized understanding of complex problems – Understanding difficult to acquire/ communicate § Creating understanding, finding/ managing people needed requires – Personnel tools – Organization – Social and communications networking Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 37

6. Conclusions § Comprehensive Approach to 21 st Century challenges mandated by their interlocking complexity § Irregular Warfare approach is the military instantiation § Complex human roles critical/ demand new thinking § New tools for dealing with complexities needed but…revolve about synthesis of § Complexity Theory: Defines Problem and what we can do about it § Living Systems Theory: Defines Complex Real World Context § Decision-making Theory: Dissects Interactions into Specific Tasks/ Problems for Tools and PEOPLE The Great Paradox: Complexity Simplifies! Objective: Not perfect answers but those timely and good enough to succeed … and better than the competition’s Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approved for release to foreign persons. EM log # ARL-09 -SAB 043 ARL- 38