Why do some people underestimate risk Hazard risk

Why do some people underestimate risk?

Hazard risk • The chance of a hazard event causing great damage (ie becoming a disaster). Hazard Probability • The chance of a hazard event occurring. Note, magnitude, frequency & location are required. Eg, The chance of a magnitude 8 earthquake occurring once in North America.

Some people under-estimate risk if: • They feel they have some control over the event eg have a car to escape in, or they can ski/mountaineer/swim/surf. • They lack information about likely hazards. • The media under-reports or else does not report events accurately.

Some people under-estimate risk if: • The last event happened a very long time before. • They believe, incorrectly, that technology can manage the hazard. • They do not identify indirect links. Eg an earthquake may lead to a fall in tourist visitors.

Some people under-estimate risk if: • They are hold fundamentalist religious beliefs. • They have more pressing matters eg are unemployed and need a job. • There is civil/political unrest. • The event takes a long time to unfold (frog in hot water).

Some people under-estimate risk if: • The event occurs frequently eg minor tremors in earthquake zones. • The event usually leads to few deaths. • Deaths appear random in space and time eg lung cancer. • Victims are statistical eg cigarette smokers in general.

Some people over-estimate risk if • They have no control over it (eg a radiation leak). • There is a direct and immediate impact. • They perceive high death rates resulting (Ebola, Mers, Sars H 1 N 1).

Some people over-estimate risk if: • Death rates are often high. • Deaths are grouped in space and time. • Victims are identifiable. • Processes are not well-understood (nuclear reactions).

Some people over-estimate risk if • Hazards cannot be controlled eg Hurricanes & earthquakes. • Hazards are unfamiliar eg Ebola, tsunami. • People lack belief in authority figures (eg scientists and members of the government)