WHS AP Psychology Unit 7 Cognition Essential Task

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WHS AP Psychology Unit 7: Cognition Essential Task 7 -3: Identify decision making techniques

WHS AP Psychology Unit 7: Cognition Essential Task 7 -3: Identify decision making techniques (compensatory models, representativeness heuristics, and availability heuristics) as well as factors that influence decision making (overconfidence, confirmation bias, belief perseverance, and hindsight bias)

Algorithms Representativeness Heuristic Compensatory Models Heuristics Decision Making Techniques Problem Solving Techniques Unit 6:

Algorithms Representativeness Heuristic Compensatory Models Heuristics Decision Making Techniques Problem Solving Techniques Unit 6: Cognition Obstacles to Problem Solving Obstacles to Decision Making Availability Heuristic We are here Biological Factors Acquisition and use of Language Cognitive Factors Information Processing Model Memory Cultural Factors Encoding Storage Retrieval

Essential Task 7 -3: Outline • Problems vs. Decisions • Identify decision making techniques

Essential Task 7 -3: Outline • Problems vs. Decisions • Identify decision making techniques – representativeness heuristics – availability heuristics – compensatory models • Factors that influence decision making • Overconfidence • confirmation bias • belief perseverance • hindsight bias

Problems and Decisions • Problem solving – the task is to come up with

Problems and Decisions • Problem solving – the task is to come up with new solutions – Decision making – a type of problem solving in which we already know the possible options.

Heuristics in Decision Making • Short-cuts learned from experience, that people use to make

Heuristics in Decision Making • Short-cuts learned from experience, that people use to make decisions typically when facing complex problems or incomplete information • Assumptions • Two Types – Availability heuristic – Representativeness Heuristic.

Representativeness Heuristic You make a decision based upon how much something represents, or matches

Representativeness Heuristic You make a decision based upon how much something represents, or matches up, with characteristics from your schema, or the typical case. Good School It matches my ‘party school’ schema so I decide it is bad school. Bad School

Representativeness Heuristic in action. Decide where they are from.

Representativeness Heuristic in action. Decide where they are from.

Representativeness Heuristic in action. • Susan is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful, but

Representativeness Heuristic in action. • Susan is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful, but with little interest in people, or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, she has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail. • Is Susan a Librarian, a Teacher, or a Lawyer?

Representativeness Heuristic in action. • Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very

Representativeness Heuristic in action. • Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. • Is Linda a Bank Teller? Or Is Linda a feminist Bank Teller?

Truth or Lie 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Something

Truth or Lie 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Something that happened to me during grade school. I got into a fight in the bathroom and my first grade teacher didn’t break it up. My favorite meal – Sushi at the California Grill My earliest memory – 4 th birthday party My favorite vacation trip - Disney A high point of my high school days – Band The most influential person in my life - Dad My favorite teacher – Mr. Day my ELA The part of the country in which I’d most like to live – Pacific Northwest A surprising talent that I have - Cook Something interesting about a member of my family – My sister is a concert Pianist.

Availability Heuristic Operates when we make decisions on how available information is. The faster

Availability Heuristic Operates when we make decisions on how available information is. The faster people can remember an instance of some event the more they expect it to occur.

Availability Heuristic in Action • Which household chores do you do more frequently than

Availability Heuristic in Action • Which household chores do you do more frequently than your partner? (e. g. washing dishes, taking out the trash, etc. ) • - wives report 16/20 chores • - husbands report 16/20 chores Ross and Sicoly (1979) • Why? Availability! • - I remember lots of instances of taking out the trash, washing dishes, but I do not remember lots of instance of my wife doing it

Availability Heuristic Why does our availability heuristic lead us astray? Whatever increases the ease

Availability Heuristic Why does our availability heuristic lead us astray? Whatever increases the ease of retrieving information increases its perceived availability. How is retrieval facilitated? 1. How recently we have heard about the event. 2. How distinct it is.

Which causes more deaths per 100, 000? 1. 2. 3. 4. All accidents or

Which causes more deaths per 100, 000? 1. 2. 3. 4. All accidents or strokes Blood poisoning or suicide Homicide or diabetes Motor vehicle accidents or colorectal cancer 5. leukemia or Drowning

Exaggerated Fear The opposite of having overconfidence is having an exaggerated fear about what

Exaggerated Fear The opposite of having overconfidence is having an exaggerated fear about what may happen. Such fears may be unfounded. The 9/11 attacks led to a 20% decline in air travel due to fear. 800 more people would die if they drove just half those miles

Which causes more deaths per 100, 000? 1. All accidents (35. 7) vs. strokes

Which causes more deaths per 100, 000? 1. All accidents (35. 7) vs. strokes (57. 4) 2. Suicide (10. 4) vs. blood poisoning (11. 3) 3. Homicide (7. 1) vs. diabetes (25. 1) 4. Motor vehicle accidents (15. 7) vs. colorectal cancer (18. 9) 5. Drowning (1. 1) vs. leukemia (7. 8)

Which city has the higher crime index? • • • Detroit or Myrtle Beach

Which city has the higher crime index? • • • Detroit or Myrtle Beach Chicago or Baltimore Manhattan or Gary, India Boston or Flint Montreal or Hot Springs San Francisco or Durham

Answers • • • Detroit (crime index = 531) vs. Myrtle Beach (597) Chicago

Answers • • • Detroit (crime index = 531) vs. Myrtle Beach (597) Chicago (335) vs. Baltimore (479) Manhattan (152) vs. Gary (544) Boston (223) vs. Flint (329) Montreal (181) vs. Hot Springs (201) San Francisco (176) vs. Durham (216)

Overconfidence is a tendency to overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and judgments. At

Overconfidence is a tendency to overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and judgments. At a stock market, both the seller and the buyer may be confident about their decisions on a stock.

Confirmation Bias • While we make a decision, we actively look for information that

Confirmation Bias • While we make a decision, we actively look for information that confirms our ideas

Belief Bias The tendency of one’s preexisting beliefs to distort logical reasoning by making

Belief Bias The tendency of one’s preexisting beliefs to distort logical reasoning by making invalid conclusions. Democrats support free speech Dictators are not democrats Dictators do not support free speech. We more easily see the illogic of conclusions that run counter to our beliefs than those that agree with our beliefs. God is love. Love is blind Ray Charles is blind. Ray Charles is God. Anonymous graffiti

Belief Perseverance Belief perseverance is the tendency to cling to our beliefs in the

Belief Perseverance Belief perseverance is the tendency to cling to our beliefs in the face of contrary evidence.

Bias after the process Hindsight Bias • a tendency to think that one would

Bias after the process Hindsight Bias • a tendency to think that one would have known actual events were coming before they happened, had one been present then or had reason to pay attention. • a. k. a Monday morning quarterback. • ‘I-knew-it-all-along’ effect, reflecting a common response to surprise.

Decision Making and Judgements • Decision making/judgments are special cases of problem solving in

Decision Making and Judgements • Decision making/judgments are special cases of problem solving in which possible solutions or choices are already known • Logical decision making – Compensatory model • Rational decision-making model in which choices are systematically evaluated on various criteria • Example: buying a car – Good when issues are well-defined