Where the Voters Are Copyright 2009 Cengage Learning

Where the Voters Are Copyright © 2009 Cengage Learning 1

Public Opinion: The Distribution of Opinion

Death Penalty

Views on Abortion Generational differences with regards to abortion

Gender and Views about abortion

Opinions Can Change…

Less Prejudice…

What are the Origins of Public Opinion The Sociological Model: political socialization matters

What are the origins of our opinions? Political socialization– the process by which we learn about politics Agent of socialization: an influence on our political beliefs such as family, culture, economic status

The Influence of Family Correlations: associations Between variable Theory: causal statement

Intergenerational Transmission of Party Identification, Political Active and Inactive Homes, 1997 Party Identification of Offspring Talk about Politics at Home Often Parents’ Party Identification Democrat Do not talk about Politics at Home Often Parents’ Party Identification Independent Republican Democrat Independent Republican Strong Democrat 35 9 5 13 6 5 Weak Democrat 23 14 7 20 20 14 Independent Democrat 22 12 8 19 15 10 Pure Independent 4 20 9 26 26 20 Independent Republican 4 11 9 10 9 14 Weak Republican 5 18 25 10 16 18 Strong Republican 7 16 37 2 8 19 Total Number of Cases 100 100 100 75 99 95 123 179 153

Effect of Age on Opinion about Same Sex Marriage

The Gender Gap Copyright © 2009 Cengage Learning 13

• The past is never dead. It's not even past. – William Faulkner, Requiem for a Nun (1951)

Stratified Pluralism: A Model of a Heterogeneous American People _ _Elites-___ Elites Activists Concerned Citizens Activists Inattentive Public Concerned Citizens Neumann, Paradox of Mass Politics

Assessing the Validity of Public Opinion Polls • Does the Poll use a random sample? • What is the sampling error? • Does the Question Wording bias the respondents?

Who is your favorite Peanuts character? Top row: Woodstock, Snoopy, and Charlie Brown Bottom row: Franklin, Lucy van Pelt, Linus van Pelt, Peppermint Patty, and Sally Brown

Surveyitup. com: Online Poll Favorite Peanuts Character: • Woodstock 35% 283 Votes • Snoopy 31% 254 • Linus 14% 112 • Charlie • Brown 5% 65 • Pig Pen 4% 42 • Lucy 4% 38

Gallup/CNN/USA Today Poll [February, 2000] Who is your favorite Peanuts character? (Asked of those who said they are fans of the comic strip Peanuts) (63%) • • • 31% Snoopy 26 Charlie Brown 13 Linus 8 Lucy 3 Pig Pen 2 Woodstock 1 Peppermint Patty 1 Schroeder 3 Other • 12 None/No favorite/No opinion • Survey by Cable News Network, USA Today. Methodology: Conducted by Gallup Organization, February 4 -February 6, 2000 and based on telephone interviews with a national adult sample of 1, 018. Margin of Error +/- 3% [USGALLUP. 00 FE 04. R 33]

The Effect of Question Wording Are you in favor of the death penalty for somebody convicted of murder? • 65% support the death penalty in cases of murder • If you could choose between the following two approaches, which do you think is the better penalty for murder -- [ROTATED]: the death penalty (or) life imprisonment, with absolutely no possibility of parole? " • 52% favor the death penalty for murder in contrast to the explicit alternative "life imprisonment with no chance of parole" • Are you in favor of the death penalty for Timothy Mc. Veigh? • 81% favor the use of the death penalty in the case of Timothy Mc. Veigh

The Effect of Questions Wording: “Framing Effects” “Sex” vs. “Rights” Shift

How reliable are respondents’ answers?

Reliability of polls: What we say/vs. what we do?