Whatever happened to rational government Jeff Jones I

Whatever happened to rational government ? Jeff Jones

I AM NOT THE FIRST We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology. Sagan Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H G Wells Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. Einstein

There was no golden age: but… 1963 – White heat of technology 1965 – Quantitative national plan 2017 – We don’t need experts 2018 – Global warming is a communist hoax

Examples of failure to influence v World model v Energy demand v Performance measurement v Target setting v EU expansion v Population growth

World model Systems Dynamic model of UK and world economy, building in resource constraints and investment Forecast resource price rises soon after 2000, and recession starting around 2005 - 2010 Wrote to Chief Economist, offering to build a model of UK investment, with proper treatment of time lags Ø No reply Wrote again, suggesting need to plan for possible recession Ø Reply said UK will never have a recession again, economists know how to control the economy

UK Energy demand Simulation /econometric model of total UK energy demand Counter-intuitive results Offering free house insulation increases energy demand Only increased energy price reduces demand Vacillating government policy ever since

OUTPUT & PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT Financial Management Initiative – 1982 Published detailed guidance – 1985/6 Next Steps – 1986 Prime Minister changes: o 1990 o 1997 o 2007 o 2010 o 2016 Institute for Government

Policy and targets Best way of expressing targets Optimal values Relationship to party policy Election campaigns on the hoof

EU EXPANSION Analysed new voting rules for European Parliament Used Latin hypercube sampling Prime Minister failed to understand Instruction from Deputy PM not to send complicated material to PM

POPULATION MATTERS GDP per capita Impact on growth of population change Housing needs, and the Green Belt Food security Differential birth rates MP’s circulated, but uninterested

Where does the fault lie ? Within OR In the political class General philosophy

Problems within OR The extreme complexity of some current models: o New techniques (eg: fuzzy logic, machine learning, heuristics) o Counter-intuitive behaviour o But due to the complexity of modern society Explaining to the clients o Allowing enough time to explain and illustrate Lack of contact with clients o For very senior management/Ministers, intermediate management layers

WITHIN THE POLITICAL CLASS Education and experience Short termism Party politics Source of party policies

GENERAL PHILOSOPHY The Two Cultures v Media preference for the “arts” v Creativity thought to be solely a aspect of the arts Post-modernism v Even OR not immune v The “Hoax” - Sokol Simplification of ideas (“medianisation” – dumbing down) v Populism

What can we do ? Communicate better (eg: through the media) Boast about our achievements more Run courses for politicians Be prepared, as a body, to denounce lies and false logic