What research results are policy relevant Annette Freibauer
What research results are policy relevant? Annette Freibauer
Main Questions • How will the C sink evolve (vulnerability)? – Projections of natural C sink – Projections of management effects – Projections of disturbance regimes • What is the uncertainty of C sink measures due to interannual variability? • What is the potential for climate change mitigation?
Vulnerability
C loss potential higher than C sink potential very likely Terrestrial Biomass likely Wetlands & Peatlands Soil Carbon unlikely highly unlikely Permafrost 10 100 Magnitude of vulnerability [Pg. C] 1000 Gruber et al. SCOPE
The future of the natural C sink Cramer et al. , 2001 GCB
Windthrow, e. g. Tatra
climate change land use mangement Disturbance Fate of C & N Peter Fleischer
Interannual variability
Interannual variability in National Inventory Reports of Annex-I
Land use and Management
Projection of forest area in 2020 • Global forest area (FAO) projected by continuous net trends Ergebnisse Afforestation Deforestation Afforestation area exceeds deforestation
Projection of net CO 2 flux from change in forest area • Average C stocks in biomass • Cumulative afforestation area since 1990 with 10 -30 year rotation • Deforestation emissions systematically underestimated (net area change) Land use change turns into net sink Source 30 Sink
Forest management projections • Forest sector: Biomass, soil, products • North America: now old forests • China, EU, Russia: now young forests Source Sink CO 2 Flux [Tg CO 2 yr-1] Ergebnisse EU-23 Time
Mitigation in practice
Climate effects in spruce forestry C stocks + cumulative C substitution, t. C/ha 500 400 Mean C benefits over 150 years (t C/ha) Spruce for products Spruce for energy Spruce for sequestration 311 229 226 246 262 300 200 Benefits by recycling 100 C stocks in soil, biomass & products C stocks + substitution 0 time 25 50 75 100 125 Years Freibauer et al. subm.
C benefits with „leakage“ and downstream effects Freibauer et al. subm.
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