What is the Prognosis for Our Water Future

What is the Prognosis for Our Water Future? Analyze & Display Water Related Statistics • Learning objectives – Provide supported explanations of how variability in water availability and current water use and management practices threaten ecological integrity, human health, and security. – Evaluate the case for a global water crisis. – Demonstrate facility in working with student partners in equitable and inclusive collaboration. – Demonstrate improved ability to organize, analyze, and present complex quantitative information.

What is the Prognosis for Our Water Future? Are we sliding into a ?

What is Our Collective Assessment?

Some Alarming Water Stats • More than one billion people lack access to a safe supply of drinking water. • Water-related diseases are the leading cause of death in the world, killing 10, 000 -20, 000 people per day. Kills 1. 4 million children/year. Responsible for 80% of sickness. • More than 200 million hours are spent each day by women and female children to collect water from distant, often-polluted sources. http: //water. org/water-crisis/water-sanitation-facts/ http: //www. wix. com/emeraldibis/water-sustainability

Some Alarming Water Stats • By 2025 it is estimated that at least 40% of the world’s 7. 2 billion people will live in countries with insufficient water to meet their agricultural, industrial, ecological, and human health needs. • By the middle of the century that number could climb to 7 billion in 60 countries – more people than live in the world today. • Half of the world’s wetlands have disappeared over the last century, with some rivers now no longer reaching the sea, and over 20% of the estimated 10, 000 freshwater fish species are now endangered or extinct.

Two Primary Water Issues • Quantity – Too little – Or it is just not getting to where it is needed

Two Primary Water Issues • Quantity – Too little – Too much Flooding events becoming more frequent and severe

Two Primary Water Issues • Quantity – Too little – Too much • Quality – “Fresh” vs. saline

Two Primary Water Issues • Quantity – Too little – Too much • Quality – “Fresh” – Potable

Two Primary Water Issues • Quantity – Too little – Too much • Quality – “Fresh” – Potable or not Are quantity and quality connected?

What Are the Impacts of Civilization on Water? People Water

What Are the Impacts of Civilization on Water? People Water and Vice Versa

ld u o n? h s so t ha ocu W ef w Where should we intervene?

Global Water Use Projections Water withdrawal = water that is withdrawn from a surface or groundwater source. Water consumption = water that is permanently withdrawn from its source. The difference is water that goes back to the source and is relatively untainted.

What Are Human Water Requirements? • Minimum Drinking Water Requirement – 5 liters person per day • Basic Requirements for Sanitation – 20 liters person per day • Basic Water Requirements for Bathing – 15 liters person per day • Basic Requirement for Food Preparation – 10 liters person per day • 50 liters person per day (18. 3 m 3/yr)

Haves vs. Have-Nots

Haves vs. Have-Nots Water Rights and Wrongs, UNHDR Youth Booklet, November 2006 p. 16

Water Stress Freshwater availability < 1, 700 m 3/person/yr Water Scarcity Freshwater availability < 1, 000 m 3/person/yr Not just for domestic use. How else is the extra water being used?

U. S. Water Use

U. S. Water Use

How Water Is Used Varies with Income

Geography of Water Stress Percent of population with access

Geography of Water Stress

The Haves and the Have-Nots Country Kuwait United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia Libya Qatar Bahrain How is it possible to withdraw > 100% of your renewable water resources? Yemen Turkmenistan Barbados Uzbekistan Egypt Jordan Oman Syrian Arab Republic Israel Pakistan Statistics from Aquastat http: //www. fao. or g/nr/water/aquast at/data/query/ind ex. html? lang=en Iraq Sudan Iran (Islamic Republic of) Malta Tunisia Tajikistan Algeria Palestinian Territory Armenia Republic of Korea Freshwater withdrawal as % of total renewable water resources 2075. 0 1867. 0 943. 3 615. 4 374. 1 205. 8 168. 6 112. 5 108. 0 100. 6 97. 8 92. 4 84. 7 84. 2 79. 7 74. 4 73. 4 71. 2 67. 9 67. 3 60. 9 51. 1 48. 9 48. 8 37. 9 36. 5 Freshwater withdrawal as % of Country total renewable water resources 35. 7 Morocco 34. 5 Azerbaijan 34. 0 Belgium 33. 9 India 32. 6 Kyrgyzstan 31. 7 Singapore 31. 0 Afghanistan 28. 7 Bulgaria 28. 6 Spain 26. 4 Mauritius 26. 0 Dominican Republic 24. 5 Sri Lanka 24. 3 Lebanon 24. 2 South Africa 23. 6 Italy 23. 1 Swaziland 22. 4 Somalia 21. 0 Zimbabwe 21. 0 Germany 20. 9 Japan 19. 4 Poland 18. 9 Turkey 18. 4 Kazakhstan 17. 2 Mexico 17. 0 Philippines 15. 5 United States of America Looking pretty good for the U. S. A. , right? But…

Take home point alert! • Statistics like these average out variability over very large areas. • Nobody lives in global or national average land.

Geography of Water Stress Wa. SSI = Water Supply Stress Index WD = Water Demand WS = Water Supply Red = Demand exceeds Supply

Geography of Water Stress Physical vs. Economic Water Scarcity What is economic water scarcity?

Connection Between Water Availability and Economy Zimbabwe

Geography of Water Stress Human Water Security Threat Takes into account impacts of pollution on water quality and use.

Water Pollution

The Drivers that Contribute to Water Security Threat

Impact on Water Security Threat from Technological Investments Note how the water stress threat diminishes in Europe (and the US) due to assumed investments while it actually increases relatively in sub-Saharan Africa

Now Superimpose on All of This… • Climate Change

Looking Forward: Climate Change Impacts Health Weather-related mortality Infectious diseases Air-quality respiratory illnesses Agriculture Climate Changes Temperature Precipitation Sea Level Rise Crop yields Irrigation demands Pest outbrreaks Forests Change in forest composition Shift geographic range of forests Forest health and productivity Pest outbreaks Water Resources Changes in water supply Water quality Increased competition for water Coastal Areas Erosion of beaches Inundation of coastal lands Costs to protect coastal communities Species and Natural Areas Source: EPA Shift in ecological zones Loss of habitat and species