WHAT IS TERRORISM Terrorism is a means rather

WHAT IS TERRORISM? • Terrorism is a “means” rather than an “ends” • Lots of political violence includes this method: Total war (including nuclear), insurgencies, separatist movements, counter-insurgencies, coup d’états, • Terrorism is: “unlawful or illegitimate (? ) violence directed against civilians to invoke fear to obtain a political end. ” The last bit reflects the fact that much of what we consider to be terrorism is a historically new “norm” or “construction” • Are “irregular combatants” terrorists? • Is political assassination an act of terrorism? Is targeting police? Are economic sanctions? Are “dumb” projectiles? Are landmines? • What is “state terrorism”? What is “state-sponsored terrorism”? The vast majority of terrorism is not “intl. ” or “transnational” because it is poorly suited to deliver what terrorists want. A lot of “transnational” terrorism is really “domestic terrorism” with a brand. • Why does terrorism work? It needs us to help it…

IS TERRORISM ON THE RISE?

Countries with the highest number of deaths by terrorism 2013 Countries with the highest number of deaths by terrorism in 2013, by percentage of total deaths Note: Worldwide Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 8. Source: IEP; ID 377061

SHOULD WE PUT THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE? • The federal government has spent over $80 billion on aviation security in the past 10 years. Yet "your chance of dying in a bathtub is about one in a million, and from terrorism is about one in 3. 5 million" - Ohio State political scientist John Mueller.

Source: http: //www. cnn. com/2015/10/02/us/oregon-shooting-terrorism-gun-violence/

Death by 1000 cuts? OBL’s hope

Mueller, cont.

• • • WHO BECOMES A TERRORIST? How do we know who becomes a terrorist? Methods to answer this question (states with it, communities that generate it, & individual level determinants) The vast majority of people don’t become terrorists… which means that our “regression models” completely stink (low r-square). Why do young males become terrorists (risk, frustration, violence, oversimplification)? Relative deprivation, biology, and family status Some common traits among terrorists: foreign occupation (is #1 factor in predicting suicide terrorism), a receptive audience (media and society) an oversimplified worldview, frustration (relative deprivation), selfrighteousness, social isolation (often in refugee camps or cults), a taste for glamour, indoctrination, and state support? Despite many suggestions that “only dealing with injustice despair, and hopelessness” will solve terrorism, people become terrorists only when and where that model works. And, there almost always productive counterterrorism strategies that don’t involve social transformation Why would anyone “rationally” become a suicide bomber? Ask Hamas or a postmodern political scientist… Why do people sign up for war?

WHAT EXACTLY IS AL QAEDA? ISIS? WHAT CAUSED THEM? • Why is empathy so important even if you can’t imagine ever sympathizing with terrorists? • Sorting the nominally Islamic groups out: Hezbollah (Shia, Iran ties), Hamas (Palestinian and Sunni), Al Qaeda (1988, Sunni Pan-Wahabi front based in Afghanistan), al-Nusra Front (Sunni AQ affiliate in Iraq, which became ISIS); other offshoots • Is Islam itself the source of terrorism? • Key figures setting up AQ: Sayid Qutb (Muslim Brotherhood) Ayman Zawahiri Osama Bin Laden • ISI=ISIS=ISIL: Seeks “caliphate” in Levant region, which approximately covers Syria, Jordan, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Cyprus, and part of southern Turkey • What does AQ and its successors want, and why do they use violence against other Muslims?

WHAT’S AQ’S PROBLEM WITH THE US (AND OUR ALLIES)? How do we know? Bin Laden’s declaration of war Our military presence in the holy lands Our relationship with Israel Support for corrupt “apostate” regimes The “enslavement of Iraq” (what about Iran? ) Subordination of the Muslim world in economic, cultural, & military terms • Forcing Muslim countries to sell oil at reduced prices. • • •

• • • CAN WE WIN THE WAR ON TERRORISM OR WILL IT INCREASE IN THE 21 ST CENTURY? PROBABLY THE LATTER Maybe winning means putting everything into perspective. Why do democratization and a global appreciation for human rights increase terrorism? (Terrorists take advantage of our concerns for everyday people) Globalization increases relative deprivation and motivates young people to action Globalization and the media: The global village allows fear and how to move quickly and broadly Globalization and spreading ideology: It’s a lot easier to connect nuts together and to make them feel like part of the same community. It also makes it cheaper and more easier than ever for radicals to seem like an alternative Financing for terror, and technical know how: The key to Al Qaeda’s and ISIS’s work