What Goes Around Comes Around 2 Examples of

There is nothing new under the sun Eccl 1 -9 • The past is

Example Past Winter • How many people were looking at sequence of events in

Example. . End game of AMO/hurricane/arctic ice idea • AMO cooling, warmest water at

Models still trying for positive extent, height of melt season this year

Reason why, until now, east coast spared. . SST not in wheelhouse

But it is now, as N Atlantic starts cooling

So here is the test: • End game of AMO near, East coast hurricane

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What Goes Around, Comes Around 2 Examples of the Past, to forecast the Future

There is nothing new under the sun Eccl 1 -9 • The past is the foundation we stand on today to reach for tomorrow

Example Past Winter • How many people were looking at sequence of events in 1917 -1918? • Lack of hurricane season, even with favorable SST set up • Major ne pacific warm pool • Major cold over US. • 93 -94: Major ne Pacific warm pool

Dec 1917 SST vs this year

Dec 1993

This Year

17/18 93 -94

Winter This year

Our forecast Evolution July (Nov-Feb)

Verification of Nov-Feb

Nov 1 forecast

Nov 22 Final

Example. . End game of AMO/hurricane/arctic ice idea • AMO cooling, warmest water at end of warm amo western Atlantic • Pattern similar to 1950 s • Arctic ice starts to increase as the AMO cools

East Coast hurricanes in the 1950 s

CURRENT WATER TEMPS

1951 -1955

1956 -60

THE GREAT NEAR MISS 1961 -ESTHER

1966 -1980

Before SANDY, DORIA tried it 1967

Near Miss Major, Gerda 1969

1981 -1996

Last time positive Summer anomaly

Models still trying for positive extent, height of melt season this year

Reason why, until now, east coast spared. . SST not in wheelhouse

But it is now, as N Atlantic starts cooling

So here is the test: • End game of AMO near, East coast hurricane threats enhanced • But end of arctic ice scam in site • Can’t wait for AGW agenda excuses