What Do Voters Want From Brexit John Curtice

What Do Voters Want From Brexit? John Curtice Senior Fellow, Nat. Cen Social Research and ESRC ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’ programme www. whatukthinks. org/eu @whatukthinks

The Data Source – Nat. Cen’s new panel survey • Mixed mode (internet/phone) panel of respondents interviewed initially for 2015 British Social Attitudes survey • Of 4, 328 respondents to BSA 2015, 2, 783 agreed to join panel • Been interviewed a number of times since, including about EU Referendum over 4 weeks in May/June • 1, 391 interviewed again about Brexit over 4 weeks in September/October (54% response rate) • Data weighted for differential dropout and to match population demographics

Representativeness 90 83 80 72 70 60 50 51 52 49 48 40 30 20 10 0 Leave Remain Panel Result Turnout

How Opinion Shifted During The Campaign 60 50 48 52 51 49 40 30 20 10 0 May/June Reported Vote Leave Remain

Questioning Strategy • Do not assume voters understand concepts such as ‘free trade’, ‘single market’, ‘customs union’ or ‘freedom of movement’ • Focus where possible on everyday practical consequences - customs checks, passport checks, mobile phone calls, etc. • Do not presume that voters accept the trade-offs, e. g. between free trade and limiting immigration, that may be imposed by negotiators

Soft Brexit Options • Allowing all EU citizens who are already living in the UK to remain here • Allowing banks located in EU countries to provide services to people living in Britain while allowing British banks to provide services to people living in the EU • Britain continuing to follow EU regulations on the cost of mobile phone calls made abroad • Requiring British firms to comply with EU regulations on the design and safety of all the goods that they make • Allowing companies based in the EU to sell goods and services freely in Britain in return for allowing British companies to sell goods and services freely in the EU • Allowing boats from the EU to fish in British waters in return for allowing British boats to fish in EU waters

Mostly Popular 100 90 90 76 80 65 70 63 60 60 45 50 40 30 20 10 0 12 22 15 6 2 Free Trade 18 EU citizens stay EU regulations In Favour Passporting Against CFP Mobile calls

Hard Brexit Options • No longer allowing people from EU countries who are visiting Britain to get NHS treatment for free • Ending the ability of the EU to decide the maximum number of hours people in Britain can be expected to work • Britain imposing a limit on the number of people from the EU who can come here to live and work • Requiring people from the EU who want to come to live here to apply to do so in the same way as people from outside the EU • Reintroducing customs checks on people and goods coming to Britain from the EU • Introducing passport checks on people travelling between the UK and the Republic of Ireland

Also Mostly Popular! 80 74 71 70 70 62 60 53 50 45 40 30 20 25 13 16 18 24 29 10 0 Treat EU same Customs checks as non-EU Limit EU migrants End free NHS In Favour Against Work hours limits Ro. I passports

Leave and Remain on Soft Brexit 100 90 90 94 90 80 80 72 68 70 55 60 57 50 70 57 50 36 40 30 20 10 0 Free Trade EU citizens stay EU regulations Leave Passporting Remain CFP Mobile calls

Leave and Remain on Hard Brexit 100 90 89 85 85 75 80 70 60 62 65 55 57 55 48 50 40 41 33 30 20 10 0 Treat EU same Customs checks as non-EU Limit EU migrants Leave End free NHS Remain Work hours limits Ro. I passports

Willingness to Trade • It has been argued that when Britain leaves the EU, British firms will only be allowed to continue to sell goods and services freely to people in the EU if people from the EU are still free to come here to live and work. • Do you think Britain should or should not allow people from the EU to freely come here to live and work in return for allowing British firms to sell goods and services freely in the EU. • Definitely should allow people from the EU to come here to live and work • Probably should not allow people from the EU to come here to live and work • Definitely should not allow people from the EU to come here to live and work

A Tough Choice 60 50 40 28 29 21 22 Should not 30 20 10 0 Definitely Probably

That Does Divide Leave and Remain Voters 80 70 60 50 34 36 36 34 40 30 20 10 Leave - Should 21 8 Leave Should not Definitely Remain - Should Probably Remain - Should not

The Political Perspective 70 60 50 31 37 40 30 20 10 0 29 11 Conservative - Should 23 23 Conservative - Should not Definitely 34 12 Labour - Should Probably Labour - Should not

Conclusion • Voters are not simply divided between those who want a ‘soft’ and those who want a ‘hard’ Brexit – many are in favour of aspects of both • Even a majority of Remain voters back immigration control and customs checks • While a majority of Leave voters back free trade and financial passporting • Opinion is evenly divided on whether to allow freedom of movement in order to secure free trade • But with most Conservative as well as Leave voters disinclined to accept such a bargain, it perhaps should not be anticipated that it will necessarily prove acceptable to the UK