What are ecological footprints Ecological footprints measure the

What are ecological footprints? • Ecological footprints measure the extent to which humans are using the Earth’s bioproductive capacity • Units are global hectares – A hectare of land with “average bio-productive capacity (for agriculture, forest, nutrient cycling, energy production, etc. ) – A hectare = 2. 5 acres (1 acre is about a football field between the 5 yard lines) (1 hectare is 2 complete football fields with endzones)

Ecological Footprint From Living Planet Report 2008, World Wildlife Fund, 2008.

Ecological footprints measure Earth’s carrying capacity for humans • In 2010, the biosphere had about 11. 5 billion hectares of biologically productive surface (about 1/4 of the total planet) – 2 billion ha of ocean (the continental shelves) – 9. 5 billion ha of land • Current estimates indicate that humans are overshooting the Earth’s carrying capacity by 25 -50% – To sustain the current carrying capacity, we could need 11/2 Earths! – But, population growth and increasing development means that we are increasing our use of Earth’s carryingcapacity (bio-capacity)

From Living Planet Report 2008, World Wildlife Fund, 2008.

With respect to sustainability of the human endeavor, population growth rate and population size are only part of the picture: per capita consumption is the other Developed countries have very large ecological footprints

Ecological Footprints (Hectares person)

Ecological Footprint by Region From Living Planet Report 2008, World Wildlife Fund, 2008.

United States Ecological Footprint By Component Biocapacity varies somewhat over time because of technology, agricultural practices (such as fertilizer use and irrigation), ecosystem degradation

Mexico’s Footprint by Component

Mexico • Mexico has moved from using only 1/3 of its biocapacity in 1961 to nearly 1 ½ times its own biocapacity in 2002

Calculate your own ecological footprint (Can you realistically reduce your footprint to 1 planet? )

So, where do we stand? • There are 11. 5 billion hectares of bio-productive land, and it is declining • There about 7 billion people, and increasing at about 1% per year • There are currently 1 2/3 hectares person, and most ecologists believe this is insufficient to support a significant quality of life for the average person on Earth • If we continue down the path we are on, there will be less than 1 hectare person by 2050

Sustainability ? From Living Planet Report 2008, World Wildlife Fund, 2008.

Envisioning Solutions • Former president Bill Clinton has argued that combating climate change doesn’t have to mean economic hardship (Clinton Initiative Topic) • It could be the biggest development stimulus since World War II, creating millions of jobs and saving trillions of dollars in foreign fuel imports • What are some of the strategies we have available? 9 -20

Controlling Emissions is Cheap Compared to Climate Change • A 2010 study by the Pew Trust estimates the cost of lost ecological services by 2100 • Costs included factors such as lost agricultural productivity from drought, damage to infrastructure from flooding and storms, lost biological productivity, health costs from heat stress, and lost water supplies • The Pew report found that climate change is likely to cost between $5 trillion and $90 trillion by 2100 • The Stern Review (2006) estimates a cost of only about 1% of global GDP to avoid the worst impacts of climate change

There Are Many Ways We Can Control Greenhouse Emissions • We can reduce dependence on coal, which produces more CO 2 per energy unit than any other fuel • We could institute fees for selling fossil fuels–these would help fossil fuel prices represent their many hidden costs • We can invest in new technologies and energy efficiency • We can institute emissions trading, by instituting a legal cap on emissions, then allowing companies to buy and sell shares of that total cap (California’s AB-32 does this)

A Wedge Approach Involves Dissecting the Problem into Stepwise Solutions • To avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 we need to reduce our annual carbon emissions by about 7 billion tons (=7 gigatons or GT) by 2060 • Scientists have divided these emissions into 14 “wedges”, each of which represents 1 GT of carbon emissions avoided in the year 2060

Local Initiatives Are Effective • California has greatly reduced Carbon emisions by switching all coal burning power plants to natural gas (decreased CO 2 by 30%) & switching to green energy production • New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark pledged that her country will be the first to be “carbon neutral” • Germany has reduced its CO 2 emissions at least 10 percent by switching from coal to gas and by encouraging energy efficiency throughout society • Denmark now gets 20% of its electricity from windmills

California: A long history of investing in clean power and energy efficiency 1974 2008

California is a model for efficiency Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation) United States ∆(2005) k. Wh/person = 4, 000 k. Wh/yr = $400/capita California

Energy Efficiency Strategies • Flattening out the curve – yesterday – Decouple sales from revenues– eliminate disincentive – Set and strengthen building and appliance standards – Invest in utility energy efficiency programs • Bending the curve downward– tomorrow – Strengthen incentives– “Decoupling Plus” – Set long term goals to achieve durable, broad-based reductions – Enhance strategic planning: work backwards from goals – Improve branding, messaging and marketing – Invest in workforce and research and development

Wedge Analysis • Accomplishing just half of these wedges could level off our emissions. Accomplishing all of them could return to levels well below those envisioned in the Kyoto protocol

Mc. Kinsey, December 2007 U. S. GHG Abatement Mapping Initiative

22 States Committed to Regional Carbon Markets (w/ an additional 8 “observing”) Source: Pew Center

Products and the Environment • At first glance, the relationship between products & our environment may seem clear, BUT….

Let’s consider the simple French fry • What are its connects to the environment? • What impact does it have?

How did the fry get to the restaurant? Suppliers Truck Producer Truck Processing Plant Truck Distribution Center Truck Bob’s Burger Shop http: //www. rprogress. org/

What impact did its journey have? Fossil Fuels Fertilizers Suppliers Machinery Pesticides Irrigation Truck Seeds Machinery Producer Fossil Fuels Irrigation Fossil Fuels Hydropower Hydroelectric dam Hydropower Truck Processing Plant Distribution Center Hydroflourocarbons Freezer Machinery Food waste Truck Freezer Fossil Fuels Truck Bob’s Burger Shop http: //www. rprogress. org/ Fossil Fuels Animal Feed Fossil Fuels Packaging

What impact did these impacts have? Fossil Fuels Fertilizers Runoff Suppliers Machinery Loss of Biodiversity Pesticides Irrigation Loss of Biodiversity Truck Seeds Producer Machinery Air Pollution Fossil Fuels Hydropower Hydroelectric dam Hydropower Truck Processing Plant Damage To Ozone Hydroflourocarbons Fossil Fuels Irrigation Fossil Fuels Machinery Air Pollution Food waste Truck Freezer Air Pollution Distribution Center Truck Freezer Bob’s Burger Shop http: //www. rprogress. org/ Fossil Fuels Animal Feed Fossil Fuels Packaging Solid Waste

How might all of this affect the Earth’s systems? Forests Fossil Fuels Fertilizers Runoff Fossil Fuels Suppliers Loss of Biodiversity Seeds Machinery Air Fossil Fuels Pollution Hydropower Hydroelectric dam Hydropower Truck Producer Truck Processing Plant Loss of Biodiversity Damage To Ozone Hydroflourocarbons Freezer Forests Fossil Fuels Irrigation Fossil Fuels Machinery River Cropland Air Pollution Forests Food waste Truck Freezer Air Pollution Machinery Pesticides Irrigation Forests Distribution Center Truck Bob’s Burger Shop Fossil Fuels Animal Feed Grazing Land Fossil Fuels Packaging Built-up Land Solid Waste Built-up Land http: //www. rprogress. org/

We’ve considered only the potato • Consider all the other parts of your meal – the other foods – the utensils – the napkins – the condiments – the drinks… • There are multiple environmental impacts involved in these as well