WGII CONTRIBUTION TO AR 4 OUTLINED TO IMPROVE

WGII CONTRIBUTION TO AR 4 OUTLINED TO IMPROVE FOCUS ON MATTERS OF INTEREST TO DECISION MAKING, THROUGH A JOINT AND FULLY INTEGRATED ACTION WITH WGS I AND III

Scope of the WGII Third Assessment HUMAN INTERFERENCE Initial Impacts or Effects Residual or Net Impacts VULNERABILITIES MITIGATION of Climate change via GHG Sources and Sinks Exposure IMPACTS (Emission GHG and Aerosols Ozone + Precursors Aerosols and Precursors Deforestation, Desertification, Over consumption, Pollution, Fires, Species Lost, etc. ) CLIMATE CHANGE Including Variability POLICY RESPONSES IPCC WGII (International Agreements UN Conventions, Laws National Regulations, etc) Planned ADAPTATION To the impacts And Vulnerabilities

CLIMATE CHANGE an Integrated Framework. IPCC WGII

INTEGRATED ASSESMENT FRAMEWORK FOR CONSIDERING CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC WGII

SOME KEY CONCLUSIONS OF WGII THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT Ø Effects of climate change can be observed now BUT…difficult to attribute. Ø Natural and human systems are sensitive to climate change BUT… vulnerability not reliably identified neither quantified Ø Exacerbation in extreme events have major consequences, BUT … Information limited to few cases, Ø Adaptation is necessary yet capacity varies BUT: …options, costs, barriers not really assessed). IPCC WGII

REASONS OF CONCERNS 1990 Temperature Change (ºC) 5, 8 IPCC WGII Several Models All SRES Envelope 1, 4 YEARS

REASONS OF CONCERNS IPCC WGII

AS THE TAR WAS COMPLETING… Ø New global/regional assessments being completed of impacts under different stabilisation scenarios Ø New global assessments started of impacts under different development pathways Ø Many new regional level studies Ø Investigations of adaptation in practice IPCC WGII

Changes in crop yield (5 main staple cereals) from the present day to the 2080 s Potential change in cereal yields (%) 10 – 5 5 – 2. 5 – 0 0 – -2. 5 – - 5 -5 – -10 – - 20 No data Parry, et al 2001, UK Defra Unmitigated emissions Stabilisation of CO 2 at 750 ppm IPCC WGII Stabilisation of CO 2 at 550 ppm

CHANGES IN RIVER RUNOFF FROM THE PRESENT DAY TO THE 2080 S Unmitigated emissions Arnell, 2001, UK Defra Stabilisation of CO 2 at 750 ppm Change in annual runoff (%) IPCC WGII Stabilisation of CO 2 at 550 ppm – 75 – 50 – 25 – 5 to 5 25 50 75

GLOBAL ADDITIONAL MILLIONS AT RISK IN THE 2080 s (Global Env. Change, 2001 from UK DEFRA ‘fast track’ project) IPCC WGII

RECOMMENDATIONS OF WGII TAR IPCC WGII Ø More quantified assessment of all aspects Ø Assessment of possible thresholds Ø Improved knowledge of adaptation costs, obstacles, options Ø More complete range of impacts assessment: monetary and non-market, eg numbers of people affected, land areas, species at risk, etc Ø Advances in relation to: a) risk assessment and management; b) decision-making; c) sustainable development; d) monitoring and observing effects of climate and other stresses

WHAT FOR AR 4? Build on the TAR robust findings and key uncertainties. Follow suggestions from governments, scientific and development groups, and NGOs Assume the task of satisfying Decision Makers needs, Analyzing, with the WG II’s authors, questions like: IPCC WGII Ø¿Which are the interlinkages between climate change and the other components of the global environmental change? Ø¿What are the needs to achieve the WG II objectives for satisfying decision maker expectations? (In particular those related to the UNFCCC´s goals. ) Ø¿Which are the basic policy- related science issues?

LOOKING AHEAD TO FOURTH ASSESSMENT SOME SCIENCE QUESTIONS KEY UNFCCC ISSUES · · Developing effective adaptation · Seeking sustainable development in a future with climate change · IPCC WGII Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic effects Examining evidence for current climate change · · Where are the key vulnerabilities – regions, sectors? What would be critical rates/magnitudes (+ extremes) of climate change? · · Extent/limits of adaptive capacity? Its effectiveness and cost? (especially vs. mitigation) What mix of adaptation /mitigation? · How does vulnerability and adaptive capacity vary under different paths of economic/social development? · Extent to which early effects are detectable, now? (monitoring) Evidence for (and measurement of) effectiveness of (current) adaptation? ·

EMERGING ISSUES for FOURTH ASSESSMENT Ø Detection of effects (observable now) and degree of attribution to regional climate change. Ø Where are the key vulnerabilities to future climate change? Ø Effects under different development pathways. Ø Adaptation capacities, limits and costs. Ø Effects under mitigation (stabilisation scenarios). Ø Climate change in the context of multiple stresses IPCC WGII