Westland Helicopters is an Agusta Westland Company 21

Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

21 ISMOR Norton Manor: 31 st August - 3 rd September 2004 The Need For And Value Of Simple OA Models In Industry Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

• • OA at Westland Helicopters (WHL) OA Modelling at WHL Complex and Simple Models Abuse - Potential for Misuse of Simple Models – Example • Summary Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

• OA at Westland Helicopters (WHL) Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

WHL OA The industry is: Agusta. Westland: Therefore: • Aerospace • Helicopters, • Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company Small OA team.

WHL OA Role of OA in WHL is: • Having a deeper understanding of operational needs. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

WHL OA • Matching potential products and technology to these operational needs. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

WHL OA • OA is often a ‘bridging’ activity, between: – the customer community – ‘core’ engineering activities. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

WHL OA • Assessing strengths / weaknesses of competitor products. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

WHL OA • OA at WHL is within the engineering organisation; this is because: – It is an objective analytical discipline – It requires sound knowledge of the product’s technology and performance – It needs to understand future technologies and their potential for capability enhancement – It retains its credibility. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

WHL OA In practice: • We are often working within tight time constraints • And explaining the work and results to non OA specialists. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

• • OA at Westland Helicopters (WHL) OA Modelling at WHL Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

WHL OA - Modelling • • • There are very detailed and complex models of aircraft and systems within engineering and the rest of the company, We use the results of these as data sources OA modelling at aggregated level above these. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

WHL OA - Modelling • Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company We’re interested in aircraft in operational settings.

WHL OA Modelling Customer Requirements Aircraft Data Complex Engineering Models Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company OA MODELS Scenario Data Relatively Simple

WHL OA Modelling Some of the things WHL OA models address: • Support Helicopter Fleet lift & availability • • – – Single or several helicopter types Single or multiple tasks Short or long operational periods Amphibious or land-based Sortie flying hours analysis for amphibious forces Ship operations Aircraft survivability Capability assessment – Support helicopters – Light utility helicopters – Attack helicopters. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

WHL OA - Modelling Why do we use simple models? • What is a simple model? • Conversely, what isn’t? Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

• • • OA at Westland Helicopters (WHL) OA Modelling at WHL Complex and Simple Models Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Complex Models • If not Simple, then a Complex model: – Large (lines of code) – Lot of input data – Involves wide range of aspects. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Complex Models • Drawbacks: – Takes time to collect data – Takes time to set up – May not be easily understood; can be rather a “black box” – Requires a great deal of documentation – High development costs in time & effort before can use – High cost of further development, Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company • Advantages: – Models details – Copes with interactions of many systems – Variety of output.

Simple Models • Simple models: – Small (lines of code) - small enough to operate on a PC – Limited input data – Limited number of aspects – Simple enough to develop or tailor for a particular problem – Fast enough to provide a quick turnround of results – Transparent enough for ready understanding. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Simple Models • Drawbacks: • Advantages: – Model few details or is high level – Limited number systems – Limited output, – – – Relatively easy to collect data Quick to set up Easily understood; “transparent” - fairly easily assimilated Requires limited documentation Can be tailored relatively cheaply / easily. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

WHL OA - Modelling: Simple Models • Benefits for WHL OA of using simple models: • Easier to set up and run • Easier to explain • Easier to maintain • So we need simple models. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

• • OA at Westland Helicopters (WHL) OA Modelling at WHL Complex and Simple Models Abuse - Potential for Misuse of Simple Models Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Abuse of Simple Models But there is potential for abuse: • Customers may think there’s more in a simple model than there really is: – They may think it does what it cannot – They may have too much faith in the results (nobody reads the caveats). Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Abuse of Simple Models Or customers may want to bend models to do what they cannot. Such as compare apples with pears. . . & lemons, pineapples, bananas, strawberries, …. . . Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Abuse of Simple Models • Or introduce details that may add realism, but are not really necessary. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Abuse of Simple Models • • Customers may think they understand it enough to want to take it and use it themselves: – It may be a simple model to a specialist – But in the wrong hands, it may not be recognized for what it really is. This is particularly true of soft OA tools. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

• • OA at Westland Helicopters (WHL) OA Modelling at WHL Complex and Simple Models Abuse - Potential for Misuse of Simple Models – Example Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Example One example is an MCDA tool that we use: Target Scores (Requirements) Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Example One example is an MCDA tool that we use: Target Scores (Requirements) Aircraft Scores (Capabilities ) Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Example One example is an MCDA tool that we use: Target Scores (Requirements) Aircraft Scores (Capabilities ) Comparison: Aircraft Scores minus Target Scores Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Example Each characteristic is represented by a 5 level scale e. g. Troop Capacity: (No. of troops carried in crashworthy seats) Level 1 = <2 Level 2 = 2 -3 Level 3 = 4 -5 Level 4 = 6 -7 Level 5 = Over 7. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Example - Advantages: • It allows one to address diverse problems, • One can use hard and/or soft data • It permits comparisons of different aircraft / system configurations or types. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Example - Drawbacks (1) Drawbacks: • The scoring process must be set up very carefully – Steps must have similar impact e. g. Troop Capacity: Level 1 = <2 <2 Level 2 = 2 -3 2 Level 3 = 4 -5 3 -6 Level 4 = 6 -7 7 Level 5 = Over 7 >7 , – The scoring scales must be representative of the problem being examined e. g. Troop Capacity scale shown may be unsuitable for large lift operations. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Example - Drawbacks (2) • The user must be aware of any potential interdependencies – e. g. Payload / Range could be separated, but interdependency makes it difficult. – Hence, combine them, supported by lower level modelling • The user must be aware of any potential conflict. – e. g. Payload / Range and Troop Capacity. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Example - Drawbacks (3) • Aggregation needs to be handled with care (if at all) – Could: Take worst of a set of results (sometimes useful) Accumulate negative scores (no credit for overachieving) • Must capture and record all: – Assumptions – Judgements – Reasoning. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Abuse of Simple Models This is a lot to expect of a “naïve” user who may not appreciate these subtleties. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Abuse of Simple Models • Some things are best left in the hands of specialists. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

• • OA at Westland Helicopters (WHL) OA Modelling at WHL Complex and Simple Models Abuse - Potential for Misuse of Simple Models – Example • Summary Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Summary In Summary • At WHL we use a range of modelling techniques in support of the company, underpinned by more complex models • We need relatively simple models because they are: – Easier to use – Easier to explain – Easier to maintain • There is always potential for these models to be abused, and we need to guard against this. Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company

Westland Helicopters is an Agusta. Westland Company