Western Interior Paleontological Society Summary And Transition Past

Western Interior Paleontological Society Summary And Transition: Past, Present And Future Climates Paul E. Belanger, Ph. D. WIPS 1 ST VP

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bob Raynolds Jonathan Bujak Dag Nummedal Ian Miller Peggy Le. Mone Caspar Ammann …et al. that I did not mean to omit Global Warming/Climate Change – Resource Issues – Alternatives Study Group: FTP SITE: https: //sslaccess. elkresources. net/files/

THE PRESENT IS THE KEY TO THE PAST (LYELL) IS also THE KEY TO THE FUTURE

THE PAST

FROM CSI TO GSI: GEOLOGICAL SAMPLE INVESTIGATION LET THE EVIDENCE SPEAK FOR ITSELF

WE CALL THIS EVIDENCE “PROXY” DATA

SOME OF THE EARLIEST PROXY DATA WAS FROM TERRESTRIAL DEPOSITS • • Strandlines/shorelines Moraines Till Kettle lakes, etc. We may know what caused these today, but imagine back then?

IT’S THE INTERPRETATION THAT’S NOT ALWAYS CORRECT Darwin observed ancient Alpine shorelines: interpreted as ocean shoreline Agassiz – later correctly interpreted as ice- dammed lake-shore strandlines/shoreline

• Jean Louis R. Agassiz • “Father” of Glaciology • 1807 -1873 • Paleontologist • Glaciologist

Photographic proxy data/evidence Ruddiman, 2008

EARLY PROXY DATA: TREE RINGS

Pollen & Lake core data Ruddiman, 2008

PROXY DATA: POLLEN DATA

PROXY DATA: LEAVES

Tree rings, corals, ice cores Ruddiman, 2008

PROXY DATA: ICE CORES

TERRESTRIAL DATA North American: European: Wisconsin Wurm Illinoian Riss Kansan Mindel Nebraskan Gunz

LATER EVIDENCE CAME FROM THE MARINE RECORD NOT WITHOUT IT’S PROBLEMS, BUT MORE COMPLETE

Cesare Emilani: Paleontologist, Chemist Father of Paleoceanography

Other Paleoceanographers Wally Broecker Thermal-haline “conveyor” belt of circulation

Other Paleoceanographers Bill Ruddiman Nick Shackleton

Other Paleoceanographers John Imbrie: CLIMAP

PROXY DATA: CORE DATA

PROXY DATA: BENTHIC FORAMS

PROXY DATA: PLANKTONIC FORAMS

Deep Sea Coring Ruddiman, 2008

Proxy data: stable isotopes Wikipedia

- SO – WHAT CONTROLS CLIMATE

Gerhard et al. , 2001

OF HUGE IMPORTANCE: • DISTRIBUTION OF CONTINENTS WITH RESPECT TO LATITUDE • OCEAN CIRCULATION • OPENING OF THE DRAKE PASSAGE: ISOLATING ANTARCTICA • BARRIERS TO EQUATORIAL CIRCULATION: CLOSING OF ISTHMUS OF PANAMA 3 -5 Ma

we think of this as ‘normal’…but bipolar glaciation geologically rare possibly unique

Icehouse Earth

Milankovitch cycles (forcing factors)

MILANKOVITCH CYCLES ARE REFLECTED IN THE GEOLOGIC RECORD

Cenozoic Climate Record Wikipedia

Climate Changes from Ocean Sediment Cores, since 5 Ma. Milankovitch Cycles Wikipedia

The Ice Record: Milankovitch Empirical Interpreted Brook, 2008 Nature

Gerhard et al. , 2001

BUT IS THIS CORRECT? Does CO 2 always have a lesser role in controlling climate?

HERE’S THE LONG TERM RECORD Jacobs Fricke Shellito

Snowball Earth ~650 Ma

WHAT CONTROLS THE LONG-TERM RECORD? IS IT STRICTLY CONTINENTAL POSITIONS AND OCEANIC CIRCULATION?

TODAY WE SAW EOCENE EVIDENCE OF A WARMER CLIMATE

Jacobs Ballantyne Shellito Fricke

In particular we saw a VERY DRAMATIC increase in temperature in an environment of already HIGH CO 2 VALUES when there was an additional spike of Methane and CO 2

Proxy data: stable isotopes Wikipedia

Fossil Lotus Courtesy K. Johnson

Living Lotus Courtesy K. Johnson

BUT MARY KRAUS DIDN’T TELL US ABOUT THIS GUY!

RECENT FIND IN COLUMBIA

HERE’S NEW COMPELLING DATA FROM THE EOCENE

Early Eocene supergreenhouse was followed immediately by abrupt global cooling What forced this change? Bujak, pers. Comm.

ACEX – ARCTIC CORING EXPEDITION Expedition 302 - Arctic Coring Expedition August-September 2004

Lomonosov Ridge

No Polar Ice Caps P/E World From Blakey (2007)

ARCTIC EVENTS PROXY DATA Brinkhuis et al, , 2006 Moran et al. , 2006

THE EVIDENCE DOCUMENTS AN 800, 000 YEARS SEQUESTRATION EVENT CALLED THE AZOLLA EVENT

ACEX results • 1400 ft (420 m) cored section • good Paleocene Eocene section recovered • cored the “Azolla event” • cored the PETM Bujak, pers. Comm.

ACEX Azolla core • >8 metre ACEX core with 90% Azolla • Azolla occurs as laminated layers • indicates Azolla deposited in situ • bottom-water anoxia at ACEX site Bujak, pers. Comm.

? Azolla event base middle Eocene 49 Ma Bujak, pers. Comm.

UNPRECEDENTED DROP IN CO 2 the massive decrease in atmospheric CO 2? Bujak, pers. Comm.

the fastest growing plant on the planet! it can double its biomass in 2 to 3 days Bujak, pers. Comm.

the key is in Azolla’s leaf structure source: Carrapiço, 2002 Bujak, pers. Comm.

Not unlike the increase GHGs at Paleocene-Eocene causing a significant warming, there appears to be a strong suggestion that this Azolla sequestration of carbon GHGs for a period of about 800, 000 years correlates to an ensuing cooling of the globe. That is NOT to say tectonic events like the opening of the Drake Passage are not also of great significance – particularly in the isolation of Antarctica and its subsequent glaciation and contribution to global cooling.

HERE’S THE LONG TERM RECORD Jacobs Fricke Shellito

FOR LONG-TERM CLIMATIC CHANGES THE EVIDENCE SUGGESTS:

Geologic cycles: Climate through the Phanerozoic— carbon is the culprit Royer et al. , 2003

IMAGINE THIS: IT’S ALSO TRUE FOR OTHER PLANETS

No sinks: Runaway Greenhouse Effect • 97% carbon dioxide • 3% nitrogen • Water & sulfuric acid clouds • Temperature: >800°F – more than twice as hot as Mercury Venus

The Many Time Scales of Climate Change • Daily to several years: Weather – not Climate 1 o. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF solar, El Ninos, volcanism, INCREASE IN GHGs, etc. • Century: the climate change the IPCC and people everywhere are worried about, because it affects the economy of society, and tracks man’s direct impact • Centuries to millennia – Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles; Heinrich events 1 o. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MILANKOVITCH CYCLES, although abrupt & rapid changes in CO 2 (as occurred at the PETM) can be influential • 20 Ka to 400 Ka years – Milankovitch cycles - insolation due to earth’s orbital changes 1 o. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CO 2 • 1 Ma to many millions (Ma) years – Pennsylvanian ‘ice house’ and Cretaceous ‘greenhouse’ due to plate tectonic cycles of continental assembly and break-up and vertical movements. Cycling of CO 2 into and out of earth

The Many Time Scales of Climate Change (cont. ) Unique events: “Snowball earth” in late Proterozoic (and more? ) Large volcanic eruptions (OAE-2 at C/T boundary) PETM – major heat spike release of methane clathrates Message: Don’t confuse the causes of climate change at one time scale with the drivers of change at another.

The Long-term carbon cycle and Earths climate: Carbon cycles: Long-term carbon cycle (millions of yrs) • Driver of long-term climate changes along with continental and ocean-circulation changes • Responsible for Icehouses/Greenhouses Short-term carbon cycle (~1, 000 s to 1, 000 yrs) • CO 2 currently amplifies glacial-interglacial contrasts Long-term carbon cycle and today: • Burning fossil fuels is like setting off volcanoes >100 times faster than present eruptions rates • Running a global experiment, which in not analogous to glacial-interglacials – BUT MAY BE ANALOGOUS to the PETM.

THE PRESENT (and near future)

THE PRESENT So what’s going on today? What’s going to happen in the short-term?

Today’s Unique Event: Anthropogenic Global Warming Pliocene levels of 385 ppm Today CO 2 for the past 400 ky

1946 – 1950 svs. gsfc. nasa. gov

2002 - 2006 Temperature svs. gsfc. nasa. gov

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Satellite imagery of sea ice extent in September 1979, and at a record low in September 2007. Source: NASA If sea-ice continues to contract rapidly over the next several years, Arctic land warming and permafrost thaw are likely to accelerate. David Lawrence, NCAR

The State of Affairs NOAA web site archives & Peter Tans

Distribution of Warming: Polar/Cold Regions Wikipedia

HOWEVER: THE LATEST DATA THRU 2007 SUGGESTS GREEN HOUSE GASES ARE MATCHING AND OVERTAKING TSI VARIATIONS NCAR: Caspar Amman, 2007

LOWER VS. UPPER ATM.

Solar irradiance: 342 W/m 2 Wikipedia

CHOICES • DO NOTHING and adapt (there WILL be a REAL cost here too) • MITIGATE (or attempt to) and adapt: – – Sequester Alternate energy sources Geo-Engineering options Etc. • Promote population control: “wear a condom at every ‘conceivable’ moment” • THINK about it • But ultimately: CHOOSE WHAT TO DO IN LIFE BEFORE LIFE CHOOSES WHAT YOU DO

THE FUTURE (Beyond the Anthropomorphic Period)

FUTURE CLIMATE? FUTURE PAST Crowley & Hyde, 2008

FUTURE CLIMATE? Higher Interglacial Lower - FUTURE Glacial - PAST Crowley & Hyde, 2008

FUTURE CLIMATE? FUTURE PAST Crowley & Hyde, 2008

Look at the Trend: Any reason to think it might not continue? Time, Ma

IN SUMMARY: THE PAST PRESENT AND FUTURE

Jacobs Ballantyne Shellito Fricke

TOMORROW (AS IN 14 HOURS FROM NOW)

Western Interior Paleontological Society Founders Symposium Sunday, March 15 th 2009 NOAA: NCAR/UCAR:

NCAR/UCAR GUIDES (Coordinated by Peggy Le. Mone) BE THERE AT 8: 30 a. m. / 1: 00 p. m. 2 Groups Kyle Ham • Current Position: Education Specialist and Bilingual Educator • University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) • Office of Education and Outreach Teri Eastburn, • Coordinator, Public Programs • University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) • Office of Education and Outreach

NOAA (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration) (Coordinated by Dan Winester) BE THERE AT 8: 30 a. m. / 1: 00 p. m. Groups of 3 Don Mock, William Murtagh, George Sharman, & Sandy Mac. Donald: NOAA; ESRL (Earth Systems Research Lab); SWPC (Space Weather Prediction Center); NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center)

NOAA (cont. ) SOS: Science on a Sphere. This a 3 D display of global (and astronomic) projected onto a large sphere. The audience can view and walk around the sphere to bet a global view of data sets. NOAA has over 200 data sets, including time-varying ones. Such data sets as atmospheric processes, plate tectonics, topography, lights at night etc. (40 minutes) ESRL and other NOAA (Earth Systems Research Lab): (40 minutes) Greenhouse gas lab weather forecast office Wind profiler High performance computing center Ozone chemistry SWPC: Space Weather Prediction Center (20 minutes) Effect of solar storms on electrical transmission, broadcasts, animal navigation Geomagnetic disturbances NGDC: National Geophysical Data Center (20 minutes) Large array storage Night time lights Paleoclimatology (Tree rings, ice cores, geologic cores)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bob Raynolds Jonathan Bujak Dag Nummedal Ian Miller Peggy Le. Mone Caspar Ammann …et al. that I did not mean to omit Global Warming/Climate Change – Resource Issues – Alternatives Study Group: FTP SITE: https: //sslaccess. elkresources. net/files/

Western Interior Paleontological Society QUESTIONS?